Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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690
FXUS64 KMAF 201736
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX



1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015







.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.







&&







.AVIATION...Most of the convection is moving northeast of the TAF



sites. A few light showers have developed in the moist airmass



south and east of a Midland to Pecos line. Due to the



isolated/scattered nature of these showers have opted not to



include them in the TAF`s since they are expected to dissipate



later today. Expect bkn/ovc skies with MVFR/VFR cigs through the



early evening hours. IFR cigs are possible later this evening at



KPEQ and KFST as the next shortwave approaches from the southwest.



Showers/thunderstorms will increase from the southwest after 06Z



and will spread northeast by Sat morning.







Strobin







&&







PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/







DISCUSSION...







.Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as



we head into tonight and Saturday...







A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to



plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of



the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms



continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen



well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later



this morning as the wave exits the region.







The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east



with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead



of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several



rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by



Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly



along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best



moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible



within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.







The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region



tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly



as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this



time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in



the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the



day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a



good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an



already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling



most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the



Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will



focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is



expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the



watch north.







Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick



clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected



Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in



the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold



front arrives late in the week.







&&







.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



NM...NONE.



TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR



     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache



     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...



     Terrell.











&&







$$







33







^C

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