Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201736


1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Most of the convection is moving northeast of the TAF

sites. A few light showers have developed in the moist airmass

south and east of a Midland to Pecos line. Due to the

isolated/scattered nature of these showers have opted not to

include them in the TAF`s since they are expected to dissipate

later today. Expect bkn/ovc skies with MVFR/VFR cigs through the

early evening hours. IFR cigs are possible later this evening at

KPEQ and KFST as the next shortwave approaches from the southwest.

Showers/thunderstorms will increase from the southwest after 06Z

and will spread northeast by Sat morning.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/


.Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as

we head into tonight and Saturday...

A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to

plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of

the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms

continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen

well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later

this morning as the wave exits the region.

The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east

with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead

of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several

rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by

Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly

along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best

moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible

within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.

The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region

tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly

as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this

time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in

the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the

day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a

good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an

already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling

most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the

Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will

focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is

expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the

watch north.

Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick

clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected

Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in

the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold

front arrives late in the week.




TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR

     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache

     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...





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