Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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976
FXUS64 KMAF 072335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions this evening will be short lived as MVFR ceilings
are expected to return overnight, with widespread improvement to
VFR not expected until possibly as late as 08/18Z. KHOB and KMAF
in particular have a chance for IFR conditions Wednesday morning,
thus have included TEMPOs at both of these locations. Otherwise,
northeasterly winds will gradually veer to the southeast through
the period. There could be some storms Wednesday afternoon, though
have not included mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front continues to sag east and south from the eastern
Permian Basin to near the Davis Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms
are continuing to develop along this boundary near the aforementioned
areas, aided by diffluent flow aloft along the southern periphery
of the stronger westerlies. Have decided to cancel the Flash Flood
Watch for much of the forecast area except the extreme eastern
Permian Basin. The areas where the watch will be cancelled will
either be too far removed from the frontal boundary or have not
already received excessive rainfall. Plan on expiring the watch in
the eastern Permian Basin by 06z Wednesday due to the expectation
that the heaviest rains associated with the boundary will have
moved east of the area.

For Wednesday through Friday a new surface lee trough is forecast
to quickly become established near the mountains. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, mainly in the
afternoon and evening along and east of the surface trough from
the mountains east to the southeast New Mexico Plains to the
western Permian Basin. Not expecting a watch box these days, but
a few storms could be strong to severe given forecast shear values
of around 20 knots with capes of 500 to 2000 j/kg. Warming 850
millibar temperatures and more sunshine will result in warmer
temperatures these days, but still below normal.

The forecast for Saturday through the middle of next week looks to
be warm and dry as a sprawling upper level ridge is forecast to
become established over the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.


&&

$$

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