Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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399
FXUS64 KMAF 231805
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lingering pockets of light snow and freezing drizzle continue
across parts of the area, expected to taper off and shift east
late this afternoon. While IFR ceilings have held on at several
area terminals, an improvement to low-end MVFR is expected at all
TAF sites by 20-22Z as precipitation comes to an end. There is a
chance for some terminals to see a return of IFR ceilings
overnight, and thus have included a TEMPO IFR at KMAF from 10Z-14Z
where confidence is greatest, though addition of IFR ceilings may
be needed later at other TAF sites. Otherwise, northeast winds will
diminish slightly and veer more to the east through the forecast
period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce
another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as
southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at
the surface.  A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for most
of the region today with a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the
North and Northeast Permian Basin.  This low will quickly move east
arriving in the area late Tuesday and passing across the region
early Wednesday.  After it passes a broad trough will remain across
the center of the country before flattening off toward the weekend.
The next upper trough works down the West Coast on Saturday.

A strong cold front blew through on Sunday bringing very cold wx to
the region.  Temperatures have fallen steadily since then.  Light
wintry precipitation has developed this morning over much of the area.
Currently radar indicates the heaviest precipitation over the
Northeast Permian Basin which should be a mix of freezing rain and
sleet.  Model qpf freezing rain sleet Meso Eta/GFS still hits NE
Permian Basin hard between 09-12z same as it showed last night...
this is the area with best isentropic lift.  This is the area included
in a Winter Storm Warning.  Radar having some trouble picking up the
light precip and reports indicate light freezing drizzle may be much
more widespread. This precip will continue through the morning...
could see some light snow mixed in mainly across Southeast New
Mexico.  With temperatures in the teens and 20s anything that falls
will quickly stick to all exposed surface.  Bridges and overpasses
will be the first to ice over and expecting difficult driving
conditions this morning.  Will continue the High Wind Warning
in effect for GDP until 6am MST as latest observation was still
over 40 mph.  Precip should taper off during the afternoon.

As far as temperatures it will be a very cold day today with wind
chill factors making it even colder for those having to be outside.
Will stay on the cold side of guidance with highs in the 20s for the
Permian Basin... into the lower 30s for the Trans Pecos... with only
locations closer to the Rio Grande getting above freezing.
Temperatures begin to recover Tuesday as a surface ridge slides east
and south wind begins to return.  Should make it back into the 60s
on Wednesday as wind comes around to the west.  However A secondary
upper trough will move down across the Rockies early Thursday and
push another cold front through the region returning the area to
unusually cold wx.  Highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday as a cold
February winds down.  By next weekend the readings should make it
back into the 60s as roller coaster of temps continue.

Could see a little light rain move down into the SE NM plains late
Tuesday night with the arrival of the upper low.  Otherwise the next
shot of precip will be Thursday through Saturday... could have some
more wintry precip mixed in.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

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