Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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416
FXUS64 KMAF 101754
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1154 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Morning low clouds and fog has burned off everywhere but CNM...
they are currently LIFR but conditions have begun to improve and
should continue to rapidly. Elsewhere VFR. South wind will become
westerly and gusty tomorrow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

First off, we are seeing some freezing fog develop in the Pecos
River Valley west to the Marfa Plateau. There could be a few slick
spots on area bridges and overpasses, but the fog should dissipate
by mid-morning.

A very nice weekend is in store if you didn`t enjoy the cold weather
as of late. Zonal mid level flow along with southwesterly surface
winds will allow temperatures to warm back to normal today under
mostly sunny skies. Even warmer conditions will arrive Sunday with
highs into the 70`s! A weak front will slide into the area Sunday
night and wash out by Monday afternoon. Temperatures may cool a few
degrees, but we area still looking at above normal values.

Zonal flow continues into mid week keeping the very cold air locked
to our north. Long range models originally showed a piece of this
Arctic air breaking off and moving south into our region around
Wednesday. Latest model runs keep the coldest air bottled up across
the Plains and don`t send it south or bring in a weak cold front mid
week. Cold, shallow airmasses are not handled well in the models and
they will likely continue to flip-flop with each run. There is a
potential for large temperature forecast busts ahead due to this
uncertainty. Will need to monitor this closely as much is likely
to change in the upcoming week. It does look to remain dry
areawide through at least Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  42  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  41  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  38  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  47  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  42  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  40  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  41  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  41  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           64  39  74  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$