Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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321
FXUS64 KMAF 270025
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection has developed along a boundary
sinking south thru the lwr Trans Pecos, and we`ll do an update to
account for this. We`ll also update other parameters as necessary
based on current obs and short-term models. Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low
order PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
after 00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look
for a quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear
skies, and light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  96  72  97  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    66  95  69  96  /  10   0  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 101  73 102  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  98  72  98  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  67  89  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       64  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                       57  88  58  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  72  99  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  97  73  98  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        71 100  72 101  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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