Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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557
FXUS64 KMAF 280452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A thunderstorm or two may bubble up overnight, and possibly affect
one or more of the terminals.  However, probabilities are too low to
include at any given terminal.  VFR will prevail otherwise, but
thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon.  Again, the
probability is too low to include at any area terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  10  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  20  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  10  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  20  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  20  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  20  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  10  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
723
FXUS64 KMAF 280040 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Please see the forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have scaled back PoPs a bit across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico. Subsidence out ahead of the approaching quasi-tropical
system off the LA coast is noted in both WV imagery and radar
trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

A few isolated storms are ongoing this evening, though probability
for impact at any terminal is too low to include mention. Thus,
will continue to monitor and amend if needed this evening. A
westward-moving outflow boundary will affect MAF within the first
hour of the forecast period, with winds backing to the east and
gusts up to around 18kt possible. Southeasterly winds are expected
to return by 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, with southeast winds generally 12kt or less areawide.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the SE US with a broad trough extending
from the Dakotas down across Utah.  This trough will pinch off
leaving a cut off low over the 4 Corners region.  This low is
expected to be pulled NE around the top of the ridge.  Also have an
upper low along the TX coast hang around for a few days... will have
to see if affects our wx or not.

As August winds down the unseasonably cool temperatures continue.
Expect near persistence tonight with low temps as little change in
the pattern.  Should be about the same Sunday as today.  Models
continue to show a weak frontal boundary/wind shift sagging down
into the area early Monday with the wind becoming mainly easterly
through Tuesday.  Monday is looking cloudy and with the easterly
wind should be cooler.  Temps slowly warm to near normal by late in
the week.

So far today there has been little in the way of precipitation but
as of 18z have stated getting a few radar echos from near Queen...
to Kent... to Alpine... to near Fort Stockton.  With plentiful
moisture and daytime have enhanced CU field over much of the Permian
Basin... expanded slight chance across the east tonight but have
highest pops over the higher elevations.  Do have a number of old
outflow boundaries from yesterday that could become a focus for storm
development.  ETA qpf does brings precip down across the Northern
Permian Basin this evening.  QPF hitting Eddy Co hard Sunday
night... locally heavy rain possible... have increased pops to 50
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  10  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  20  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  10  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  20  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  20  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  20  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  10  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/70
553
FXUS64 KMAF 272320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few isolated storms are ongoing this evening, though probability
for impact at any terminal is too low to include mention. Thus,
will continue to monitor and amend if needed this evening. A
westward-moving outflow boundary will affect MAF within the first
hour of the forecast period, with winds backing to the east and
gusts up to around 18kt possible. Southeasterly winds are expected
to return by 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, with southeast winds generally 12kt or less areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the SE US with a broad trough extending
from the Dakotas down across Utah.  This trough will pinch off
leaving a cut off low over the 4 Corners region.  This low is
expected to be pulled NE around the top of the ridge.  Also have an
upper low along the TX coast hang around for a few days... will have
to see if affects our wx or not.

As August winds down the unseasonably cool temperatures continue.
Expect near persistence tonight with low temps as little change in
the pattern.  Should be about the same Sunday as today.  Models
continue to show a weak frontal boundary/wind shift sagging down
into the area early Monday with the wind becoming mainly easterly
through Tuesday.  Monday is looking cloudy and with the easterly
wind should be cooler.  Temps slowly warm to near normal by late in
the week.

So far today there has been little in the way of precipitation but
as of 18z have stated getting a few radar echos from near Queen...
to Kent... to Alpine... to near Fort Stockton.  With plentiful
moisture and daytime have enhanced CU field over much of the Permian
Basin... expanded slight chance across the east tonight but have
highest pops over the higher elevations.  Do have a number of old
outflow boundaries from yesterday that could become a focus for storm
development.  ETA qpf does brings precip down across the Northern
Permian Basin this evening.  QPF hitting Eddy Co hard Sunday
night... locally heavy rain possible... have increased pops to 50
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  30  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  30  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  30  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  30  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
330
FXUS64 KMAF 271837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the SE US with a broad trough extending
from the Dakotas down across Utah.  This trough will pinch off
leaving a cut off low over the 4 Corners region.  This low is
expected to be pulled NE around the top of the ridge.  Also have an
upper low along the TX coast hang around for a few days... will have
to see if affects our wx or not.

As August winds down the unseasonably cool temperatures continue.
Expect near persistence tonight with low temps as little change in
the pattern.  Should be about the same Sunday as today.  Models
continue to show a weak frontal boundary/wind shift sagging down
into the area early Monday with the wind becoming mainly easterly
through Tuesday.  Monday is looking cloudy and with the easterly
wind should be cooler.  Temps slowly warm to near normal by late in
the week.

So far today there has been little in the way of precipitation but
as of 18z have stated getting a few radar echos from near Queen...
to Kent... to Alpine... to near Fort Stockton.  With plentiful
moisture and daytime have enhanced CU field over much of the Permian
Basin... expanded slight chance across the east tonight but have
highest pops over the higher elevations.  Do have a number of old
outflow boundaries from yesterday that could become a focus for storm
development.  ETA qpf does brings precip down across the Northern
Permian Basin this evening.  QPF hitting Eddy Co hard Sunday
night... locally heavy rain possible... have increased pops to 50
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  30  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  30  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  30  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  30  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
281
FXUS64 KMAF 271701
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and this
evening across the region. Confidence was not great enough to
mention at any of the terminals. Will continually monitor latest
trends however. Winds will generally be southeast at 10 mph or
less.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today, but some
could be affected by thunderstorms this afternoon. Due to low
probability will not make mention this issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Look for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms
bringing locally heavy rainfall to portions of the area.

For the third night in a row an outflow boundary is moving south
across SE NM and parts of the Permian Basin. This along with several
other leftover boundaries will likely play a role in the location
of convection this afternoon. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue due to an upper level trough developing to our west and a
large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. A plume of mid level
moisture along with periodic disturbances will stream across the
area within this flow. Showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to develop early this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached within an unstable, uncapped environment.
Some of these storms will contain heavy rain given PWATs +1 to +2
SD and training of cells over the same locations.

Expect a repeat each day into early next week as the overall pattern
remains the same. Monday and Tuesday currently look to have the
best chance of rain as moisture rounds an upper low that will set
up over S. TX. Clouds and moisture will continue to keep
temperatures below normal through at least the middle of next
week. Models then indicate a weak upper ridge building with drier
and warmer conditions late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  89  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       67  87  66  82 /  20  40  40  50
Dryden                         72  92  72  89 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  85 /  20  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  79  62  74 /  30  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  84  64  81 /  20  30  40  50
Marfa                          61  80  62  78 /  20  30  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  88  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           69  89  68  86 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
533
FXUS64 KMAF 271053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today, but some
could be affected by thunderstorms this afternoon. Due to low
probability will not make mention this issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Look for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms
bringing locally heavy rainfall to portions of the area.

For the third night in a row an outflow boundary is moving south
across SE NM and parts of the Permian Basin. This along with several
other leftover boundaries will likely play a role in the location
of convection this afternoon. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue due to an upper level trough developing to our west and a
large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. A plume of mid level
moisture along with periodic disturbances will stream across the
area within this flow. Showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to develop early this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached within an unstable, uncapped environment.
Some of these storms will contain heavy rain given PWATs +1 to +2
SD and training of cells over the same locations.

Expect a repeat each day into early next week as the overall pattern
remains the same. Monday and Tuesday currently look to have the
best chance of rain as moisture rounds an upper low that will set
up over S. TX. Clouds and moisture will continue to keep
temperatures below normal through at least the middle of next
week. Models then indicate a weak upper ridge building with drier
and warmer conditions late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  89  69 /  30  20  30  20
Carlsbad                       88  67  87  66 /  30  20  40  40
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  30  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  88  68  89  67 /  30  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  79  62 /  40  30  40  40
Hobbs                          84  65  84  64 /  30  20  30  40
Marfa                          80  61  80  62 /  40  20  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  88  68 /  30  20  30  30
Odessa                         89  70  88  69 /  30  20  30  30
Wink                           90  69  89  68 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
265
FXUS64 KMAF 270826
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Look for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the area.

For the third night in a row an outflow boundary is moving south
across SE NM and parts of the Permian Basin. This along with several
other leftover boundaries will likely play a role in the location
of convection this afternoon. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue due to an upper level trough developing to our west and a
large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. A plume of mid level
moisture along with periodic disturbances will stream across the
area within this flow. Showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to develop early this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached within an unstable, uncapped environment.
Some of these storms will contain heavy rain given PWATs +1 to +2
SD and training of cells over the same locations.

Expect a repeat each day into early next week as the overall pattern
remains the same. Monday and Tuesday currently look to have the
best chance of rain as moisture rounds an upper low that will set
up over S. TX. Clouds and moisture will continue to keep
temperatures below normal through at least the middle of next
week. Models then indicate a weak upper ridge building with drier
and warmer conditions late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  89  69 /  30  20  30  20
Carlsbad                       88  67  87  66 /  30  20  40  40
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  30  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  88  68  89  67 /  30  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  79  62 /  40  30  40  40
Hobbs                          84  65  84  64 /  30  20  30  40
Marfa                          80  61  80  62 /  40  20  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  88  68 /  30  20  30  30
Odessa                         89  70  88  69 /  30  20  30  30
Wink                           90  69  89  68 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
896
FXUS64 KMAF 270455
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Looking for VFR conditions to prevail overnight and Saturday at all
area terminals. Localized fog, if not lower ceilings could form
due to moist ground, but current trends/progs are not too bullish
in this department. Thunderstorms will develop again today, if
not in the morning, then in the afternoon.  Will wait until the
next issuance to include any mention, since it is unclear which
terminals will be affected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  90  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  81  64  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          57  82  58  82 /  40  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           67  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
413
FXUS64 KMAF 262327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered storms are diminishing this evening, though outflow
boundaries will maintain easterly winds at area terminals through
around 02Z before southeasterly winds return. A few storms could
affect HOB through 02Z, with gusty wind/brief heavy rain possible.
The other concern is the potential for MVFR stratus to impact MAF
around 12-15Z, thus have maintained the TEMPO mention for now.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, though thunderstorms will
be possible again Saturday afternoon, yielding potential MVFR
conditions in heavy rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern has a high pressure ridge centered over the SE U.S.
while a broad upper trough extends down from Canada across the
Intermountain West.  The trough pinches off and develops a cut off
low over AZ by Sunday that seems to make little progression east
before weakening.  Early next week the sub tropical ridge builds
west reestablishing itself over the area.

As of early afternoon still have significant cloud cover over much
of the region.  An errattic but predominately south wind field
helping to keep low level moisture elevated across the area with
dewpts in the 60s nearly areawide.  Expect low clouds across the
Permian Basin again Saturday morning.  Not expecting much change in
the surface flow the next couple of days.  By Monday a weak
boundary/wind shift line sags into the area with the wind becoming
easterly along it.

The increased moisture... cloud cover... and area rain has been
keeping temperatures below normal for late August.  MAF has not
recorded a hundred degree reading since Aug 11.  Normal for this
time of year over the Permian Basin is 93 but most of the past week
has had highs in the 80s.  Latest long range forecast continues the
below normal trend into next week.

This afternoon have had significant develop of showers and
thunderstorms over the Eastern Permian Basin down into the Lower
Trans Pecos along a Theta E ridge.  Recent storms have been good
rain producers and training storms could result in locally heavy
rain.  Expecting the higher elevations to develop storms later
today/tonight and Saturday.  Will include pre first period and bump
up pops for this afternoon in the east and have also added isolated
pops east tonight.  A chance of storms continue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  90  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  81  64  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          57  82  58  82 /  40  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           67  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
804
FXUS64 KMAF 261853
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern has a high pressure ridge centered over the SE U.S.
while a broad upper trough extends down from Canada across the
Intermountain West.  The trough pinches off and develops a cut off
low over AZ by Sunday that seems to make little progression east
before weakening.  Early next week the sub tropical ridge builds
west reestablishing itself over the area.

As of early afternoon still have significant cloud cover over much
of the region.  An errattic but predominately south wind field
helping to keep low level moisture elevated across the area with
dewpts in the 60s nearly areawide.  Expect low clouds across the
Permian Basin again Saturday morning.  Not expecting much change in
the surface flow the next couple of days.  By Monday a weak
boundary/wind shift line sags into the area with the wind becoming
easterly along it.

The increased moisture... cloud cover... and area rain has been
keeping temperatures below normal for late August.  MAF has not
recorded a hundred degree reading since Aug 11.  Normal for this
time of year over the Permian Basin is 93 but most of the past week
has had highs in the 80s.  Latest long range forecast continues the
below normal trend into next week.

This afternoon have had significant develop of showers and
thunderstorms over the Eastern Permian Basin down into the Lower
Trans Pecos along a Theta E ridge.  Recent storms have been good
rain producers and training storms could result in locally heavy
rain.  Expecting the higher elevations to develop storms later
today/tonight and Saturday.  Will include pre first period and bump
up pops for this afternoon in the east and have also added isolated
pops east tonight.  A chance of storms continue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  90  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  81  64  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          57  82  58  82 /  40  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           67  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
188
FXUS64 KMAF 261701
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected through this evening but confidence was
not high enough to include at any of the terminals. MVFR ceilings
are expected to develop at KMAF by 12z Saturday and could continue
until at least 15z Saturday. Expect southeast winds of 5 to 15
mph the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility could affect KCNM, KHOB and perhaps
KPEQ and KINK through 26/14Z.  However, more high clouds may
spread over these terminals and limit low cloud/fog development.
Farther east, KFST and KMAF appear in line for showers, if not a
thunderstorm, this morning.  Expect VFR conditions at all area
terminals this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could affect terminals
again this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       66  88  68  87 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         71  92  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  67  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  64  79 /  20  30  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  86 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          60  81  61  81 /  30  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  20  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           69  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
829
FXUS64 KMAF 261049
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility could affect KCNM, KHOB and perhaps
KPEQ and KINK through 26/14Z.  However, more high clouds may
spread over these terminals and limit low cloud/fog development.
Farther east, KFST and KMAF appear in line for showers, if not a
thunderstorm, this morning.  Expect VFR conditions at all area
terminals this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could affect terminals
again this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  71  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       86  66  88  68 /  40  20  30  20
Dryden                         91  71  92  72 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  87  67  89  68 /  40  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  81  64 /  50  20  30  20
Hobbs                          83  64  86  65 /  30  20  20  20
Marfa                          80  60  81  61 /  60  30  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         87  69  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           88  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
939
FXUS64 KMAF 260808
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  71  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       86  66  88  68 /  40  20  30  20
Dryden                         91  71  92  72 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  87  67  89  68 /  40  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  81  64 /  50  20  30  20
Hobbs                          83  64  86  65 /  30  20  20  20
Marfa                          80  60  81  61 /  60  30  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         87  69  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           88  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
298
FXUS64 KMAF 260505
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high clouds abound over the region from earlier convection.
The development of low clouds, or fog, later tonight/Friday morning
will hinge upon how much of this higher cloud cover dissipates.
KCNM and KHOB appear to have the best chance of higher clouds
dissipating, so will include lower ceilings/visibility at these
sites. Will hold off including lower conditions at the other
terminals, but monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  92  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       66  89  68  87 /  20  30  20  30
Dryden                         72  94  73  91 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  67  89  67  89 /  20  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 64  82  63  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  40
Marfa                          62  82  61  80 /  30  50  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  91  69  89 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         70  90  70  88 /  10  20  10  30
Wink                           69  93  70  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
960
FXUS64 KMAF 252324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms currently ongoing this evening are the primary
concern this forecast period. Expect storms to continue for at
least the next few hours, thus have included mention at all
terminals. Erratic gusty wind and heavy rain could result in
brief MVFR conditions, with VFR conditions expected outside of
storms. FST may see storms beyond 06Z, though have not included
mention at this time. Some low clouds could also develop around
daybreak Friday, will defer to later issuances for potential
inclusion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Morning observations from across the area showed a weak frontal
boundary draped across the northwest Texas Permian Basin and
extending back into Eddy County New Mexico and northern Culberson
County Texas. Primary indications are that this boundary is in
part serving as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm
development that we presently see on radar. As we progress into
the late afternoon and evening, we will see an increase in
coverage with these storms.

With the subtropical ridge being located over the southeast U.S.,
deeper moisture and a series of mid level disturbances have continued
to stream into southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico along the
western periphery of the ridge. With this ridge edging slightly
further westward today, the best chances for rain today should be
over southwest Texas across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, extending
up into southeast New Mexico and the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Afternoon NAM CAPE values of 1200-1700 J/KG along the aforementioned
frontal boundary suggest that storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening could be marginally severe, with the main
threat being wind.

There could be a slight lull in precipitation this weekend as the
subtropical ridge slides further east. However, the overall trend
is for rain chances to continue across the area next week. This
should allow for fire weather concerns to remain at a minimum
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                         72  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  89  67  89 /  30  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  82  64  82 /  40  50  30  40
Hobbs                          63  86  64  86 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          62  81  62  82 /  40  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  90  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           68  91  69  93 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
685
FXUS64 KMAF 251907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning observations from across the area showed a weak frontal
boundary draped across the northwest Texas Permian Basin and
extending back into Eddy County New Mexico and northern Culberson
County Texas. Primary indications are that this boundary is in
part serving as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm
development that we presently see on radar. As we progress into
the late afternoon and evening, we will see an increase in
coverage with these storms.

With the subtropical ridge being located over the southeast U.S.,
deeper moisture and a series of mid level disturbances have continued
to stream into southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico along the
western periphery of the ridge. With this ridge edging slightly
further westward today, the best chances for rain today should be
over southwest Texas across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, extending
up into southeast New Mexico and the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Afternoon NAM CAPE values of 1200-1700 J/KG along the aforementioned
frontal boundary suggest that storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening could be marginally severe, with the main
threat being wind.

There could be a slight lull in precipitation this weekend as the
subtropical ridge slides further east. However, the overall trend
is for rain chances to continue across the area next week. This
should allow for fire weather concerns to remain at a minimum
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                         72  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  89  67  89 /  30  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  82  64  82 /  40  50  30  40
Hobbs                          63  86  64  86 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          62  81  62  82 /  40  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  90  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           68  91  69  93 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

72/03
014
FXUS64 KMAF 251729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting the development of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
mainly west... especially near HOB and CNM. Isold MVFR cigs near
HOB through 20z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
predominately SE wind.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Parts of the area received heavy rain again yesterday, but
luckily it fell over locations that were fairly dry. Much quieter
on the radar this morning than 24 hours ago so expect a calm
morning weatherwise. By this afternoon more showers and storms
will develop across the area. A large subtropical high over the SE
U.S. nudges west today so the best coverage of precip will be
mainly along and west of the Pecos River. Storms may develop along
outflow boundaries leftover from Wednesday`s convection. Heavy
rain and localized flash flooding will be possible again as
moisture content remains high and storms train over the same
areas.

Not much changes Friday as western portions of the area will remain
favored to get most of the storms. As the mid level high stays in
place to our east a weak ridge will develop to our west this
weekend. This will keep our region in a mid level weakness into
next week with diurnal convection possible each day and
temperatures holding just below normal for late August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       66  85  66  88 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                         72  90  72  92 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  88  67  90 /  30  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  80  64  81 /  40  50  30  40
Hobbs                          63  85  64  87 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                          62  80  62  82 /  40  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  90  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                         69  89  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           68  89  69  92 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
499
FXUS64 KMAF 250902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection has diminished area-wide, leaving
lots of moisture to work with over the next few days.  Models
suggest stratus forming in places this morning, w/IFR/MVFR cigs
KMAF/KCNM.  Otherwise, forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field around noon, w/bases 2.8-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Parts of the area received heavy rain again yesterday, but
luckily it fell over locations that were fairly dry. Much quieter
on the radar this morning than 24 hours ago so expect a calm
morning weatherwise. By this afternoon more showers and storms
will develop across the area. A large subtropical high over the SE
U.S. nudges west today so the best coverage of precip will be
mainly along and west of the Pecos River. Storms may develop along
outflow boundaries leftover from Wednesday`s convection. Heavy
rain and localized flash flooding will be possible again as
moisture content remains high and storms train over the same
areas.

Not much changes Friday as western portions of the area will remain
favored to get most of the storms. As the mid level high stays in
place to our east a weak ridge will develop to our west this
weekend. This will keep our region in a mid level weakness into
next week with diurnal convection possible each day and
temperatures holding just below normal for late August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  66 /  50  40  40  20
Dryden                         92  72  90  72 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  66  88  67 /  40  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 80  61  80  64 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          84  63  85  64 /  50  40  30  20
Marfa                          80  62  80  62 /  60  40  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  10
Odessa                         90  69  89  70 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                           89  68  89  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
448
FXUS64 KMAF 250824
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Parts of the area received heavy rain again yesterday, but
luckily it fell over locations that were fairly dry. Much quieter
on the radar this morning than 24 hours ago so expect a calm
morning weatherwise. By this afternoon more showers and storms
will develop across the area. A large subtropical high over the SE
U.S. nudges west today so the best coverage of precip will be
mainly along and west of the Pecos River. Storms may develop along
outflow boundaries leftover from Wednesday`s convection. Heavy
rain and localized flash flooding will be possible again as
moisture content remains high and storms train over the same
areas.

Not much changes Friday as western portions of the area will remain
favored to get most of the storms. As the mid level high stays in
place to our east a weak ridge will develop to our west this
weekend. This will keep our region in a mid level weakness into
next week with diurnal convection possible each day and
temperatures holding just below normal for late August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  66 /  50  40  40  20
Dryden                         92  72  90  72 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  66  88  67 /  40  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 80  61  80  64 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          84  63  85  64 /  50  40  30  20
Marfa                          80  62  80  62 /  60  40  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  10
Odessa                         90  69  89  70 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                           89  68  89  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29
736
FXUS64 KMAF 250518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection diminishing over the Permian Basin,
leaving lots of moisture to work with over the next few days.
Models suggest stratus forming overnight, w/MVFR cigs KMAF/KCNM.
Otherwise, forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
late morning, w/bases 2.4-3.5 kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper
ridging over the southeast conus.  This pattern has resulted in
south southwest winds aloft over the area.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over parts of the CWA and are expected
to continue across the area today as upper lift and low level
moisture remain over the region.  The PWAT value on the 12z MAF
sounding was 1.59 inches and values are expected to remain around 1
to 2 inches across the area so heavy rain is possible. High
temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with
highs a little bit below normal.

The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a
little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. However,
there will be enough lift and moisture for showers and storms to
remain across the area with most of the activity across the western
CWA.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up to near
normal values with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  The upper pattern
does not change much on Friday with southwest winds aloft.
Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and
surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler
than the previous day.  The upper trough will become centered over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday but otherwise not much
change expected from Friday.  The upper ridge begins to spread over
the rest of the southern conus heading into next week but remains
somewhat flattened as upper troughs continue to move over the
northern half of the country.  Southeast surface winds will allow
for low level moisture to remain across the area and for rain and
storm chances to remain through the extended forecast.  Temperatures
in the extended are expected to be below normal with highs mostly in
the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  68  90  69 /  20  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       89  66  89  66 /  50  50  40  20
Dryden                         93  72  92  72 /  20  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  91  67  89  68 /  30  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  62  82  64 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          86  64  86  64 /  50  40  30  20
Marfa                          81  60  82  60 /  60  50  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           92  68  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
Odessa                         91  69  89  69 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                           92  69  90  68 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
610
FXUS64 KMAF 242333
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Currently have thunderstorms moving
NE away from MAF and few down south moving well east of FST this
evening. At this time, it looks as though any additional
thunderstorm development may remain east of terminals overnight but
will continue to monitor radar trends and amend if needed.
Otherwise, thunderstorms will be possible once again Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper
ridging over the southeast conus.  This pattern has resulted in
south southwest winds aloft over the area.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over parts of the CWA and are expected
to continue across the area today as upper lift and low level
moisture remain over the region.  The PWAT value on the 12z MAF
sounding was 1.59 inches and values are expected to remain around 1
to 2 inches across the area so heavy rain is possible. High
temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with
highs a little bit below normal.

The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a
little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. However,
there will be enough lift and moisture for showers and storms to
remain across the area with most of the activity across the western
CWA.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up to near
normal values with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  The upper pattern
does not change much on Friday with southwest winds aloft.
Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and
surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler
than the previous day.  The upper trough will become centered over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday but otherwise not much
change expected from Friday.  The upper ridge begins to spread over
the rest of the southern conus heading into next week but remains
somewhat flattened as upper troughs continue to move over the
northern half of the country.  Southeast surface winds will allow
for low level moisture to remain across the area and for rain and
storm chances to remain through the extended forecast.  Temperatures
in the extended are expected to be below normal with highs mostly in
the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  89  66  89 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  91  67  89 /  40  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  62  82 /  20  50  40  50
Hobbs                          65  86  64  86 /  40  50  40  30
Marfa                          60  81  60  82 /  40  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  68  90 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  91  69  89 /  50  30  20  30
Wink                           69  92  69  90 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/70
043
FXUS64 KMAF 241926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper
ridging over the southeast conus.  This pattern has resulted in
south southwest winds aloft over the area.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over parts of the CWA and are expected
to continue across the area today as upper lift and low level
moisture remain over the region.  The PWAT value on the 12z MAF
sounding was 1.59 inches and values are expected to remain around 1
to 2 inches across the area so heavy rain is possible. High
temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with
highs a little bit below normal.

The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a
little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. However,
there will be enough lift and moisture for showers and storms to
remain across the area with most of the activity across the western
CWA.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up to near
normal values with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  The upper pattern
does not change much on Friday with southwest winds aloft.
Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and
surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler
than the previous day.  The upper trough will become centered over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday but otherwise not much
change expected from Friday.  The upper ridge begins to spread over
the rest of the southern conus heading into next week but remains
somewhat flattened as upper troughs continue to move over the
northern half of the country.  Southeast surface winds will allow
for low level moisture to remain across the area and for rain and
storm chances to remain through the extended forecast.  Temperatures
in the extended are expected to be below normal with highs mostly in
the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  89  66  89 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  91  67  89 /  40  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  62  82 /  20  50  40  50
Hobbs                          65  86  64  86 /  40  50  40  30
Marfa                          60  81  60  82 /  40  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  68  90 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  91  69  89 /  50  30  20  30
Wink                           69  92  69  90 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/80
505
FXUS64 KMAF 241734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Through this afternoon, an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
extending from southeast New Mexico to south of Alpine, Texas will
progress slowly eastward affecting FST, PEQ and INK during the
afternoon and MAF late afternoon into early evening. Though
conditions will generally be VFR through this evening, temporary
MVFR conditions are possible due to reduced visibility in
thunderstorms. Winds will generally be light southerly, though
variable and gusty in thunderstorms. For the remainder of the
night and Thursday morning, IFR conditions will prevail, though
conditions are expected to be IFR at times at MAF between 11Z and
14Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible mainly at MAF, INK and FST, though probabilities are not
high enough to include in terminal forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours.  Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  89 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  86  65  85 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  90 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  68  88 /  40  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  78  61  78 /  20  50  40  40
Hobbs                          64  84  64  84 /  40  40  40  30
Marfa                          60  80  61  79 /  40  50  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  91  68  89 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  89  69  89 /  50  20  20  30
Wink                           69  91  69  89 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
087
FXUS64 KMAF 241734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Through this afternoon, an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
extending from southeast New Mexico to south of Alpine, Texas will
progress slowly eastward affecting FST, PEQ and INK during the
afternoon and MAF late afternoon into early evening. Though
conditions will generally be VFR through this evening, temporary
MVFR conditions are possible due to reduced visibility in
thunderstorms. Winds will generally be light southerly, though
variable and gusty in thunderstorms. For the remainder of the
night and Thursday morning, IFR conditions will prevail, though
conditions are expected to be IFR at times at MAF between 11Z and
14Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible mainly at MAF, INK and FST, though probabilities are not
high enough to include in terminal forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours.  Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  89 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  86  65  85 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  90 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  68  88 /  40  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  78  61  78 /  20  50  40  40
Hobbs                          64  84  64  84 /  40  40  40  30
Marfa                          60  80  61  79 /  40  50  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  91  68  89 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  89  69  89 /  50  20  20  30
Wink                           69  91  69  89 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
203
FXUS64 KMAF 240930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours.  Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       88  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         92  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  68  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  63  78  61 /  40  20  50  40
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                          81  60  80  61 /  50  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  70  91  68 /  40  40  20  20
Odessa                         88  69  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
Wink                           89  69  91  69 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
766
FXUS64 KMAF 240823
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       88  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         92  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  68  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  63  78  61 /  40  20  50  40
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                          81  60  80  61 /  50  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  70  91  68 /  40  40  20  20
Odessa                         88  69  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
Wink                           89  69  91  69 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29
082
FXUS64 KMAF 240536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue off and on throughout the night. Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop invof KMAF around sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Convective temps should be
achieved around noon, spawning a widespread cu field w/bases 2.8-7
kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  93  68 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       90  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         93  71  94  72 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  90  67  91  68 /  50  40  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  62  78  61 /  30  10  50  50
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  30  40  40  40
Marfa                          83  59  81  61 /  50  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  91  68 /  30  40  20  10
Odessa                         88  68  90  68 /  40  40  20  20
Wink                           90  69  92  69 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
516
FXUS64 KMAF 232327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the threat for TS
activity to continue the next 6 hours. Currently have thunderstorms
training over CNM and just north of HOB terminals. This activity
looks to continue and potentially shift to the south/southeast
slightly over the next several hours, resulting in periods of low
vis due to heavy rainfall as well as gusty/erratic winds. Storms
could continue beyond midnight but confidence is too low attm to
include mention of TS beyond 04Z for now. Will continue to monitor
radar trends and amend if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail with thunderstorm chances possibly returning Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  91  70  93 /  30  20  40  10
Carlsbad                       66  90  66  86 /  30  30  20  50
Dryden                         71  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  90  67  91 /  30  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  62  78 /  40  30  10  50
Hobbs                          67  84  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          60  83  59  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  89  69  91 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         71  88  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Wink                           70  90  69  92 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/70
089
FXUS64 KMAF 231849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  91  70  93 /  30  20  40  10
Carlsbad                       66  90  66  86 /  30  30  20  50
Dryden                         71  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  90  67  91 /  30  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  62  78 /  40  30  10  50
Hobbs                          67  84  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          60  83  59  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  89  69  91 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         71  88  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Wink                           70  90  69  92 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
432
FXUS64 KMAF 231631
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Showers are expected to develop and affect most sites this
afternoon/evening.  There could be some reduction in visibility, but
will hold off addressing this until it becomes more clear where the
heavier showers will occur.  Also, TSRA could affect KCNM this
afternoon, but will likely add TSRA after storms develop over the
higher terrain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
066
FXUS64 KMAF 231109
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
High clouds have hindered low cloud development this morning so
have removed from TAFs. A band of light rain continues across the
Trans Pecos and should not cause any issues at the terminals this
morning. Scattered storms are expected this afternoon with brief
reductions in visibility and gusty winds possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
612
FXUS64 KMAF 230845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/44
752
FXUS64 KMAF 230451
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Low cigs are possible later this morning mainly across the Permian
Basin. If upper clouds clear further west, MVFR cigs may fill in
along the Pecos River, so will monitor for updates. Storms will
again be possible by afternoon and may continue well into the
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  70  88  70 /  50  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       86  66  87  67 /  20  30  50  30
Dryden                         79  70  91  70 /  50  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  85  68  90  66 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 75  61  78  60 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          85  66  85  64 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          79  59  81  58 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           85  70  89  70 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  70  89  69 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           87  70  90  67 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
085
FXUS64 KMAF 222331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect to still have some lingering showers and storms around the
area through 02-03z but have not included these in TAFs. Should
see a return of stratus again tomorrow morning at MAF... FST...
and HOB with MVFR cigs. Storm chances again tomorrow especially
for SE NM and Upper Trans Pecos so included mention at CNM...
PEQ... and INK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Southwest flow aloft will prevail over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the upcoming week, as the region remains sandwiched
between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and a persistent
ua trough over the western ConUS.  Ample moisture will funnel
northeastward over the region within this flow, as indicated by
higher theta e air around h5.  Considering surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s through the week, PWats will be at least 1.5 inches, if
not 2 inches at times, or 1 to 2 S.D. above normal.  Will keep PoPs
going most areas, and most periods, through the week under this
regime as models also bring an assortment of perturbations/MCVs
either north around the western fringe of the ua ridge, or
northeastward ahead of, or associated with, the ua trough to the
west.

Flash flood guidance is lowest over Eddy County in SE NM where heavy
rainfall/flash flooding occurred yesterday (Aug 21st).  It looks
like rain chances will be highest elsewhere through tonight, so will
forego issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time.  However,
models appear to latch on to a disturbance, if not a combination of
disturbances Tuesday and Wednesday and bring them over the region. A
southwest to northeast axis of heavier rainfall is displayed by
several models, but in different locations.  We will hold off on
issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but one may be
forthcoming for SE NM and/or a good portion of west Texas in the
next 12 to 24 hours.

This upper pattern persists into next weekend, but some models are
now indicating the upper ridge becoming more prevalent by then. Will
keep temperatures near or slightly below normal this week, but rain
chances could be on the decrease, and temps on the increase as early
as Thursday, but most likely Saturday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  88  70  90 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  67  85 /  30  50  30  30
Dryden                         70  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  66  91 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  78  60  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          66  85  64  82 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          59  81  58  82 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         70  89  69  91 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           70  90  67  89 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
718
FXUS64 KMAF 221837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest flow aloft will prevail over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the upcoming week, as the region remains sandwiched
between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and a persistent
ua trough over the western ConUS.  Ample moisture will funnel
northeastward over the region within this flow, as indicated by
higher theta e air around h5.  Considering surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s through the week, PWats will be at least 1.5 inches, if
not 2 inches at times, or 1 to 2 S.D. above normal.  Will keep PoPs
going most areas, and most periods, through the week under this
regime as models also bring an assortment of perturbations/MCVs
either north around the western fringe of the ua ridge, or
northeastward ahead of, or associated with, the ua trough to the
west.

Flash flood guidance is lowest over Eddy County in SE NM where heavy
rainfall/flash flooding occurred yesterday (Aug 21st).  It looks
like rain chances will be highest elsewhere through tonight, so will
forego issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time.  However,
models appear to latch on to a disturbance, if not a combination of
disturbances Tuesday and Wednesday and bring them over the region. A
southwest to northeast axis of heavier rainfall is displayed by
several models, but in different locations.  We will hold off on
issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but one may be
forthcoming for SE NM and/or a good portion of west Texas in the
next 12 to 24 hours.

This upper pattern persists into next weekend, but some models are
now indicating the upper ridge becoming more prevalent by then. Will
keep temperatures near or slightly below normal this week, but rain
chances could be on the decrease, and temps on the increase as early
as Thursday, but most likely Saturday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  88  70  90 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  67  85 /  30  50  30  30
Dryden                         70  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  66  91 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  78  60  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          66  85  64  82 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          59  81  58  82 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         70  89  69  91 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           70  90  67  89 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/67
408
FXUS64 KMAF 221726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few MVFR CIGS are left around CNM/HOB but most have lifted to
between 030-040 AGL. We expect this will mostly be the trend thru
afternoon. A few -SHRA have moved into the FST/MAF areas and have
included only a TEMPO -SHRA there, lightning has been mostly
absent from convection well to SE of MAF/FST since about 15Z. SE
wind will increase to around or just under 15kts early this
evening before decreasing again around 06Z-09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have been slow to expand over the area, but are
still expected to materialize for several hours this morning,
with areawide improvement to VFR expected around 17-18Z.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, thus have included
TEMPO mention at FST and MAF where confidence is highest. Heavy
rain could produce MVFR/IFR conditions, with lightning and gusty
winds also expected. Southeast winds could become gusty after
23/00Z, particularly at west Texas terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a relatively cool, wet
pattern continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
week. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf
Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west.  Over the
SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few
days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over
West Texas/SE NM by midweek.  Currently, area radars show ongoing
convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis
extending up from Mexico.  Over the next 24 hours, models are in
agreement in advecting richer theta-e (340K+) up thru the Big
Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos into the region, further enhancing convective
prospects.  Main concerns next 24 hours will be additional rainfall
over Eddy County, where KCNM received over 2" of rainfall yesterday.
FFMP estimates that over 4" fell just SE of Carlsbad, while MRMS
estimates 2.5" or more.  This area will have to be monitored closely
today, as little additional rainfall will be needed to exacerbate
ongoing flooding.  Briefly considered issuing a FFA for this area
today, but areas of yesterday`s QPEs are rather small for a FFA, and
models don`t suggest enough additional QPF to warrant one attm.

That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next
few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain.
Ensembles keep anomalously high PWATs over S. Texas this week, but
1" or greater is still forecast over West Texas/SE NM.  Under SW
flow aloft, a chance can`t be ruled out.

For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud
cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.  Models
suggest a general uptick in H85 temps into the extended, w/temps
approaching normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  87  72  88 /  40  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       69  90  67  87 /  30  40  30  30
Dryden                         73  85  72  86 /  30  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  70  87  68  84 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  76  61  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          68  89  66  85 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          63  76  61  76 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           73  86  71  85 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         72  87  70  84 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           73  90  70  84 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
648
FXUS64 KMAF 221138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have been slow to expand over the area, but are
still expected to materialize for several hours this morning,
with areawide improvement to VFR expected around 17-18Z.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, thus have included
TEMPO mention at FST and MAF where confidence is highest. Heavy
rain could produce MVFR/IFR conditions, with lightning and gusty
winds also expected. Southeast winds could become gusty after
23/00Z, particularly at west Texas terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a relatively cool, wet
pattern continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
week. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf
Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west.  Over the
SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few
days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over
West Texas/SE NM by midweek.  Currently, area radars show ongoing
convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis
extending up from Mexico.  Over the next 24 hours, models are in
agreement in advecting richer theta-e (340K+) up thru the Big
Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos into the region, further enhancing convective
prospects.  Main concerns next 24 hours will be additional rainfall
over Eddy County, where KCNM received over 2" of rainfall yesterday.
FFMP estimates that over 4" fell just SE of Carlsbad, while MRMS
estimates 2.5" or more.  This area will have to be monitored closely
today, as little additional rainfall will be needed to exacerbate
ongoing flooding.  Briefly considered issuing a FFA for this area
today, but areas of yesterday`s QPEs are rather small for a FFA, and
models don`t suggest enough additional QPF to warrant one attm.

That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next
few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain.
Ensembles keep anomalously high PWATs over S. Texas this week, but
1" or greater is still forecast over West Texas/SE NM.  Under SW
flow aloft, a chance can`t be ruled out.

For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud
cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.  Models
suggest a general uptick in H85 temps into the extended, w/temps
approaching normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  73  87  72 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       86  69  90  67 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                         79  73  85  72 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  85  70  87  68 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 75  64  76  61 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          85  68  89  66 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          79  63  76  61 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           85  73  86  71 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  72  87  70 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           87  73  90  70 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
429
FXUS64 KMAF 220845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a relatively cool, wet
pattern continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
week. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf
Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west.  Over the
SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few
days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over
West Texas/SE NM by midweek.  Currently, area radars show ongoing
convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis
extending up from Mexico.  Over the next 24 hours, models are in
agreement in advecting richer theta-e (340K+) up thru the Big
Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos into the region, further enhancing convective
prospects.  Main concerns next 24 hours will be additional rainfall
over Eddy County, where KCNM received over 2" of rainfall yesterday.
FFMP estimates that over 4" fell just SE of Carlsbad, while MRMS
estimates 2.5" or more.  This area will have to be monitored closely
today, as little additional rainfall will be needed to exacerbate
ongoing flooding.  Briefly considered issuing a FFA for this area
today, but areas of yesterday`s QPEs are rather small for a FFA, and
models don`t suggest enough additional QPF to warrant one attm.

That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next
few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain.
Ensembles keep anomalously high PWATs over S. Texas this week, but
1" or greater is still forecast over West Texas/SE NM.  Under SW
flow aloft, a chance can`t be ruled out.

For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud
cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.  Models
suggest a general uptick in H85 temps into the extended, w/temps
approaching normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  73  87  72 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       86  69  90  67 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                         79  73  85  72 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  85  70  87  68 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 75  64  76  61 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          85  68  89  66 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          79  63  76  61 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           85  73  86  71 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  72  87  70 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           87  73  90  70 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
788
FXUS64 KMAF 220600
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
100 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are low ceilings/visibility
that will overspread the area late tonight. MVFR stratus has
already started to develop over portions of the area, and is
expected to expand, affecting area terminals by around 08Z, with
low-end MVFR/IFR conditions possible around daybreak. Improvement
will be slow, with a return to VFR conditions not expected until
around 17-20Z, with showers/thunderstorms again possible Monday
afternoon, though have not mentioned TSRA at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  71  88  71 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       85  68  90  67 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                         83  70  90  71 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  83  68  87  67 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 76  62  78  62 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          81  66  87  63 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          78  59  77  58 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  70  86  70 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  70  86  69 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           85  70  88  67 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
413
FXUS64 KMAF 212355
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Still dealing with showers and storms near CNM... INK... and PEQ
for a few more hours. Expect low clouds and possibly fog to
develop at HOB... MAF... and FST with IFR conditions possible by
12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  82  71  88 /  20  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       66  85  68  90 /  20  30  30  40
Dryden                         70  83  70  90 /  50  50  20  20
Fort Stockton                  67  83  68  87 /  30  50  20  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  76  62  78 /  30  40  30  40
Hobbs                          62  81  66  87 /  20  30  20  40
Marfa                          58  78  59  77 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Odessa                         67  84  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Wink                           67  85  70  88 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
380
FXUS64 KMAF 211857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  82  71  88 /  20  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       66  85  68  90 /  20  30  30  40
Dryden                         70  83  70  90 /  50  50  20  20
Fort Stockton                  67  83  68  87 /  30  50  20  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  76  62  78 /  30  40  30  40
Hobbs                          62  81  66  87 /  20  30  20  40
Marfa                          58  78  59  77 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Odessa                         67  84  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Wink                           67  85  70  88 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/67
130
FXUS64 KMAF 211751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions will persist at TAF locations this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms producing heavy rain will result in
isolated IFR conditions near KCNM through 211900z. There is potential
for IFR ceilings and fog overnight at most TAF locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet
wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week.
Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend
Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area.  In the
upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front
to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region,
w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and
converging over the Arklatex.

Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer
back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north
thru the area into Monday.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies
over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the
area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas
and SE NM by Tue/Wed.  In general, models keep the upper ridge over
the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW
flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area.
Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further
east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache
Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the
short term.

Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud
cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the
week.  However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go,
w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  83  73  86 /  20  50  30  20
Carlsbad                       68  86  69  89 /  30  30  30  30
Dryden                         72  80  73  86 /  40  50  20  20
Fort Stockton                  68  83  70  86 /  20  40  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  75  63  77 /  40  40  30  40
Hobbs                          64  84  67  85 /  20  30  20  30
Marfa                          60  76  63  76 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           68  83  72  84 /  20  40  20  20
Odessa                         68  83  72  84 /  20  40  20  30
Wink                           69  85  72  86 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/67
493
FXUS64 KMAF 211120
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main concern this forecast period are MVFR ceilings affecting
area terminals this morning, with improvement not expected until
around 15Z/16Z when ceilings lift and scatter out around 4-5kft.
A few showers may affect CNM this morning, and while additional
storms are possible this afternoon/evening, have not included
mention due to timing uncertainty. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
E/SE winds are expected from late this morning onward, with low
ceilings expected to return after 22/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet
wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week.
Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend
Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area.  In the
upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front
to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region,
w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and
converging over the Arklatex.

Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer
back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north
thru the area into Monday.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies
over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the
area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas
and SE NM by Tue/Wed.  In general, models keep the upper ridge over
the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW
flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area.
Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further
east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache
Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the
short term.

Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud
cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the
week.  However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go,
w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  69  83  73 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       82  68  86  69 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         82  72  80  73 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  68  83  70 /  30  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  61  75  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          81  64  84  67 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          75  60  76  63 /  40  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           85  69  85  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
778
FXUS64 KMAF 210845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet
wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week.
Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend
Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area.  In the
upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front
to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region,
w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and
converging over the Arklatex.

Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer
back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north
thru the area into Monday.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies
over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the
area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas
and SE NM by Tue/Wed.  In general, models keep the upper ridge over
the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW
flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area.
Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further
east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache
Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the
short term.

Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud
cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the
week.  However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go,
w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  69  83  73 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       82  68  86  69 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         82  72  80  73 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  68  83  70 /  30  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  61  75  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          81  64  84  67 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          75  60  76  63 /  40  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           85  69  85  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
834
FXUS64 KMAF 210513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are low ceilings, which could
affect all area TAF sites around daybreak until mid-morning on
Sunday. Have included prevailing MVFR ceilings at CNM and FST
beginning at 12Z where confidence is highest, and maintained
TEMPOs elsewhere. By around 15/16Z, ceilings are expected to lift
and become sct/bkn around 4-5kft, with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter. FST and CNM could see some showers overnight tonight,
with rain/thunderstorm potential returning for CNM during the
afternoon/evening on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is moving south through the northern Permian Basin this
afternoon, preceded by an outflow boundary/prefrontal trough which
is near the Pecos River.  Showers and thunderstorms have been slow
to develop, but with heating this afternoon, and the arrival of the
front, it appears widely scattered showers and storms will be
possible over most of the Permian Basin with better chances over the
higher terrain where upslope flow will increase the next 6 hours.

A fairly strong upper level trough, at least for August, over the
midwest this afternoon will translate eastward.  A period of weak
shortwave ridging over the central ConUS Sunday/Monday will be
followed by dual ua troughs, the more potent will track along the
U.S./Canadian border, the other will translate eastward over the
southwest ConUS and deepen somewhat as it moves over the southern
U.S. Plains Wednesday/Thursday.  This progressive pattern will keep
an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS, drop a cold front
through the forecast area today, followed by another front next
Thursday, and perhaps another a week from Monday.  Moisture will
remain relatively high over the region due to a steady feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming around the western periphery of
the ua ridge during this time, and the cold fronts not being strong
enough to abate a steady feed of low level Gulf moisture.

All of the above points to a continuing chance of rain the next
seven days and below normal temperatures, for the most part on both
counts.  The best rain chances will shift to the Upper Trans Pecos
and southwest Texas tonight as the front moves south and upslope
flow increases due to more easterly low level winds.  Most of these
same areas will have low end chance PoPs Sunday with more isolated
convection possible over the rest of the area.  On Monday, rain
chances will rise a little over the Permian Basin as mid level
perturbations impinge upon the area from Mexico around the ua ridge,
and ahead of the next ua trough mentioned above.  PoPs will increase
a bit more Monday night and Tuesday as this same ua trough deepens,
with a few shortwave troughs progged to enhance lift over the area.
Another cold front will drop south in the wake of the trough by
Thursday with more rain chances along and behind it.  Heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding will be the main threats from showers
and storms for the seven day forecast.  Temperatures will be near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal the rest of the days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  68  81  70 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       85  65  86  66 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         87  71  81  72 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  65  83  69 /  30  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 77  59  80  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          80  63  82  65 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          79  59  81  60 /  40  40  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           84  67  82  69 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         84  67  83  70 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           87  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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