Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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935
FXUS64 KMAF 222032
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge stretches over the region with the remains of T.S.
Odile continuing to rotate around the area.  This will result in
potential for more heavy rain for Southeast New Mexico and parts of
West Texas tonight... however that looks to be ending.  An upper
trough will move ashore the west coast Wednesday/Thursday and push
to the Great Basin by Saturday. This will help to weaken the
ridge.

Heavy rain continues to fall this afternoon over South Central and
Southeast New Mexico... and from west of ELP to Andrews.  The rain
is tropical in nature producing heavier rain than would be expected.
Some of the heaviest rain today has been around the Guadalupe Mtns
National Park... since 12z rainfall totals included Bat Draw
0.99... Mckittrick Canyon 1.95... Pinery 2.45... The Bowl at 4.69
inches.

Still dealing with ongoing flooding across Eddy county and along the
Pecos River between Mentone and Pecos.  Surface flow will remain out
of SE to S which will keep low level moisture high.  Current dewpts
range from around 60 in the east to 72 at CNM.  the MAF 12z sounding
still have a PW of 1.7 inches which is down from 1.9 inches Sunday
morning.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible tonight.
Have trimmed some of the eastern counties from the Flash Flood Watch
as they have not received as much rain lately... but extended the
watch out through tonight for Southeast New Mexico... the Upper
Trans Pecos... and Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor.

In the short term temperatures will be increasing as more sunshine
can be expected.  In the long term temperatures should remain near
or below normal in the 80s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  83  66  82  /  20  20  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              69  84  67  84  /  10  20  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                67  83  65  84  /  60  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  88  71  83  /  10  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  85  67  81  /  20  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  77  60  75  /  60  20  10  20
HOBBS NM                   65  82  64  80  /  40  20  10  20
MARFA TX                   61  79  58  78  /  40  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  84  67  83  /  10  20  10  20
ODESSA TX                  68  84  67  83  /  10  20  10  20
WINK TX                    68  86  68  84  /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

80/72

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201
FXUS64 KMAF 221713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain with an isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the area
today with the best chances being for CNM.  Low ceilings will
gradually lift across most terminals this afternoon but will likely
come back in after sunset.  Visibilities will likely be reduced in
areas of rain/drizzle.  Ceilings and visibilities will gradually
improve late Tuesday morning.  Winds will be out of the southeast
this afternoon with some possible gusts.  Winds will weaken and
gradually become southerly after sunset.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It has long been known that the greatest flood events in our CWA
are tropical weather related and this has proved no exception.
There have been some incredible floods in the past but this may be
the first time the three major rivers of our CWA (Pecos, Rio
Grande, Colorado) have all had flooding issues at the same time.
That requires not only a great deal of rainfall, but it must be
spread over a large area. The worst flooding is currently occurring
along the Pecos River from Carlsbad in southeast New Mexico to the
city of Pecos. Recent heavy rains have saturated soils across the
area and continued rainfall, even though not as heavy as the past
couple of days, is adding to runoff this morning. Unfortunately it
is exactly this area that models show have the best chance for
additional rainfall today so conditions may be slow to improve.
Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for the Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico through today and will cancel it for the
Permian Basin where rainfall should be much less today and lighter
in intensity. Cannot rule out some isolated moderate or even heavy
showers outside the watch but the threat appears to low to justify
continuing it in the Permian Basin. Easterly low level upslope
flow will favor areas west of the Pecos and especially the
Guadalupe Mountains in western Eddy County. It won`t take heavy
rain but a persistent moderate rain in this area would drain into
the creeks and arroyos that feed into the Pecos.

Very high PWATs in excess of 1.8" will be dropping and lower theta-E
values will advect in from the east the next several days
increasing stability and allowing for much less convective
development. An upper level ridge over the Rockies will greatly
amplify by mid week capturing the southern portion of a trough
over the Midwest and retrograding it back towards north Texas.
This trough will bring lower heights but west Texas and eastern
New Mexico will still be on the dry side of this feature so no
widespread rainfall is expected. Daytime heating could allow for
isolated afternoon convection but nothing like we have seen
recently. The lower heights will only translate to near or
slightly below normal high temperatures. No cold fronts are
expected the next seven days though a deep low moving into the
Pacific northwest could bring one beyond this forecast time frame.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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055
FXUS64 KMAF 221140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
640 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers with MVFR CIGS/VSBY are the main concern thru the morning
and especially near INK/PEQ/CNM. CIGS are variable depending on
proximity to showers so near term they are weigthed toward
observed CIGS. Some lifting of cloud deck today to above MVFR.
After e-se winds mostly less than 10kts this AM, there will be an
increase 10-15kts in the mid PM hrs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It has long been known that the greatest flood events in our CWA
are tropical weather related and this has proved no exception.
There have been some incredible floods in the past but this may be
the first time the three major rivers of our CWA (Pecos, Rio
Grande, Colorado) have all had flooding issues at the same time.
That requires not only a great deal of rainfall, but it must be
spread over a large area. The worst flooding is currently occurring
along the Pecos River from Carlsbad in southeast New Mexico to the
city of Pecos. Recent heavy rains have saturated soils across the
area and continued rainfall, even though not as heavy as the past
couple of days, is adding to runoff this morning. Unfortunately it
is exactly this area that models show have the best chance for
additional rainfall today so conditions may be slow to improve.
Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for the Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico through today and will cancel it for the
Permian Basin where rainfall should be much less today and lighter
in intensity. Cannot rule out some isolated moderate or even heavy
showers outside the watch but the threat appears to low to justify
continuing it in the Permian Basin. Easterly low level upslope
flow will favor areas west of the Pecos and especially the
Guadalupe Mountains in western Eddy County. It won`t take heavy
rain but a persistent moderate rain in this area would drain into
the creeks and arroyos that feed into the Pecos.

Very high PWATs in excess of 1.8" will be dropping and lower theta-E
values will advect in from the east the next several days
increasing stability and allowing for much less convective
development. An upper level ridge over the Rockies will greatly
amplify by mid week capturing the southern portion of a trough
over the Midwest and retrograding it back towards north Texas.
This trough will bring lower heights but west Texas and eastern
New Mexico will still be on the dry side of this feature so no
widespread rainfall is expected. Daytime heating could allow for
isolated afternoon convection but nothing like we have seen
recently. The lower heights will only translate to near or
slightly below normal high temperatures. No cold fronts are
expected the next seven days though a deep low moving into the
Pacific northwest could bring one beyond this forecast time frame.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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631
FXUS64 KMAF 220954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
454 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
It has long been known that the greatest flood events in our CWA
are tropical weather related and this has proved no exception.
There have been some incredible floods in the past but this may be
the first time the three major rivers of our CWA (Pecos, Rio
Grande, Colorado) have all had flooding issues at the same time.
That requires not only a great deal of rainfall, but it must be
spread over a large area. The worst flooding is currently occurring
along the Pecos River from Carlsbad in southeast New Mexico to the
city of Pecos. Recent heavy rains have saturated soils across the
area and continued rainfall, even though not as heavy as the past
couple of days, is adding to runoff this morning. Unfortunately it
is exactly this area that models show have the best chance for
additional rainfall today so conditions may be slow to improve.
Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for the Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico through today and will cancel it for the
Permian Basin where rainfall should be much less today and lighter
in intensity. Cannot rule out some isolated moderate or even heavy
showers outside the watch but the threat appears to low to justify
continuing it in the Permian Basin. Easterly low level upslope
flow will favor areas west of the Pecos and especially the
Guadalupe Mountains in western Eddy County. It won`t take heavy
rain but a persistent moderate rain in this area would drain into
the creeks and arroyos that feed into the Pecos.

Very high PWATs in excess of 1.8" will be dropping and lower theta-E
values will advect in from the east the next several days
increasing stability and allowing for much less convective
development. An upper level ridge over the Rockies will greatly
amplify by mid week capturing the southern portion of a trough
over the Midwest and retrograding it back towards north Texas.
This trough will bring lower heights but west Texas and eastern
New Mexico will still be on the dry side of this feature so no
widespread rainfall is expected. Daytime heating could allow for
isolated afternoon convection but nothing like we have seen
recently. The lower heights will only translate to near or
slightly below normal high temperatures. No cold fronts are
expected the next seven days though a deep low moving into the
Pacific northwest could bring one beyond this forecast time frame.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  64  82  64  /  40  10  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              82  66  85  65  /  30  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  64  85  63  /  70  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  85  68  84  67  /  40  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  65  83  65  /  70  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  58  76  58  /  80  40  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  61  81  62  /  50  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   76  58  78  56  /  60  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  65  83  65  /  40  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  82  65  83  65  /  40  10  20  10
WINK TX                    84  65  85  66  /  60  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/10

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601
FXUS64 KMAF 220552
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are in/out as SHRA pass and have trend TEMPO groups with
current radar showing precip to the w.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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523
FXUS64 KMAF 212332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this evening should become MVFR around 08z and
continue through at least Monday morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be expected at least the next 18 hours at the terminals due
to the remains of tropical system and have added TEMPO groups for
MVFR or IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms and fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Though difficult to discern placement of the primary circulation
associated with the remnants of Odile, radar seemed to suggest a
location in central Eddy County. Though instability is limited,
precipitable water across a large part of the area remained above
1.5 inches resulting in the potential for very heavy rainfall
amounts. Though heavy rainfall in association with the circulation
has begun to wind down, heavy rain continues over the northern
Permian Basin with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
across much of the rest of southwest Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms across much of the area will decrease
this evening with loss of heating, though low level flow increases
becoming more easterly and upslope in the vicinity the mountain
areas. Though models have not been handling the remnants of Odile
well, should see circulation lift northwest as 700 mb high builds
into the area. Expecting to see increase in precipitation over
southeast New Mexico later in the evening as upslope low level
flow increases. May see scattered showers and thunderstorms later
tonight into Monday morning over the Permian Basin as a weak cold
front pushes into the area with additional thunderstorms possible
near the front in the afternoon, generally across the Permian
Basin. Expecting the heaviest rain, mostly in New Mexico, to wind
down by late morning.

Though the primary focus for heavy rain will be southeast New
Mexico, will keep areal coverage for the flash flood watch unchanged
as abundant moisture and wet soils combined with high rainfall
rates across most of the watch area could result in flash
flooding. Will extend flash flood watch through Monday morning to
match expected decrease in rain in southeast New Mexico.

Looking for potential scattered thunderstorms mostly eastern
Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday near weak upper trough and low
level moist axis. Scattered thunderstorms are possible beginning
in the mountains Thursday and spreading eastward by the weekend in
advance of upper trough approaching the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will remain low through Tuesday as a moist
airmass remains over the area. Rain chances will stay high through
tonight. Afternoon relative humidities will remain above 30
percent through most of next week, while recovery will be
excellent.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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045
FXUS64 KMAF 211852
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
152 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Though difficult to discern placement of the primary circulation
associated with the remnants of Odile, radar seemed to suggest a
location in central Eddy County. Though instability is limited,
precipitable water across a large part of the area remained above
1.5 inches resulting in the potential for very heavy rainfall
amounts. Though heavy rainfall in association with the circulation
has begun to wind down, heavy rain continues over the northern
Permian Basin with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
across much of the rest of southwest Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms across much of the area will decrease
this evening with loss of heating, though low level flow increases
becoming more easterly and upslope in the vicinity the mountain
areas. Though models have not been handling the remnants of Odile
well, should see circulation lift northwest as 700 mb high builds
into the area. Expecting to see increase in precipitation over
southeast New Mexico later in the evening as upslope low level
flow increases. May see scattered showers and thunderstorms later
tonight into Monday morning over the Permian Basin as a weak cold
front pushes into the area with additional thunderstorms possible
near the front in the afternoon, generally across the Permian
Basin. Expecting the heaviest rain, mostly in New Mexico, to wind
down by late morning.

Though the primary focus for heavy rain will be southeast New
Mexico, will keep areal coverage for the flash flood watch unchanged
as abundant moisture and wet soils combined with high rainfall
rates across most of the watch area could result in flash
flooding. Will extend flash flood watch through Monday morning to
match expected decrease in rain in southeast New Mexico.

Looking for potential scattered thunderstorms mostly eastern
Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday near weak upper trough and low
level moist axis. Scattered thunderstorms are possible beginning
in the mountains Thursday and spreading eastward by the weekend in
advance of upper trough approaching the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will remain low through Tuesday as a moist
airmass remains over the area. Rain chances will stay high through
tonight. Afternoon relative humidities will remain above 30
percent through most of next week, while recovery will be
excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  78  63  80  /  50  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  81  64  82  /  30  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                64  77  64  81  /  80  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  86  68  85  /  30  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  84  64  85  /  50  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  71  59  77  /  70  70  30  10
HOBBS NM                   64  76  62  80  /  70  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   62  75  56  77  /  60  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  81  63  82  /  40  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  66  81  64  82  /  40  30  30  20
WINK TX                    69  85  65  85  /  50  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

67/05

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753
FXUS64 KMAF 211737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are hanging tough at most area terminals. Will
continue to include these, along with TSRA at all TAF sites into
the evening. Ceilings will likely lower tonight.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014/

We are still dealing with the remnants of Odile with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into Monday before the
weak circulation center finally dissipates. The rainfall areal
coverage has not been particularly great, but where rain is
falling, it is heavy with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour not at
all uncommon. On top of that many areas have received rain
recently and the soil is saturated so most additional precip is
running off. Thus will continue the Flash Flood Watch through
today and it may need to be extended into tonight especially in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos.

Rain chances will drop some Monday then will really fall off
Tuesday as an upper level ridge rapidly amplifies over the
Rockies/Plains by mid week. In fact, models are indicating it
amplifies so much it will capture the southern end of a Midwest
trough and cause it to retrograde back towards Texas by Thursday.
This will keep lower heights across the CWA and prevent much
warming this forecast period. There could be some isolated storms
associated with this late in the week but will keep the late week
forecast mostly dry for now.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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950
FXUS64 KMAF 211127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Potential TSRA/MVFR CIGS/VSBY dominates this forecast cycle again
and have kept a mix of TEMPO and TSRA/SHRA with TSRA more likely at
CNM/HOB. By 21Z there could be some breaks in the BKN/OVC CIGS,
but still with so much mstr available SHRA/TSRA may form. Winds
are less of an issue with mostly e-se around 10kts expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
We are still dealing with the remnants of Odile with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into Monday before the
weak circulation center finally dissipates. The rainfall areal
coverage has not been particularly great, but where rain is
falling, it is heavy with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour not at
all uncommon. On top of that many areas have received rain
recently and the soil is saturated so most additional precip is
running off. Thus will continue the Flash Flood Watch through
today and it may need to be extended into tonight especially in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos.

Rain chances will drop some Monday then will really fall off
Tuesday as an upper level ridge rapidly amplifies over the
Rockies/Plains by mid week. In fact, models are indicating it
amplifies so much it will capture the southern end of a Midwest
trough and cause it to retrograde back towards Texas by Thursday.
This will keep lower heights across the CWA and prevent much
warming this forecast period. There could be some isolated storms
associated with this late in the week but will keep the late week
forecast mostly dry for now.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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186
FXUS64 KMAF 210935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
We are still dealing with the remnants of Odile with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into Monday before the
weak circulation center finally dissipates. The rainfall areal
coverage has not been particularly great, but where rain is
falling, it is heavy with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour not at
all uncommon. On top of that many areas have received rain
recently and the soil is saturated so most additional precip is
running off. Thus will continue the Flash Flood Watch through
today and it may need to be extended into tonight especially in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos.

Rain chances will drop some Monday then will really fall off
Tuesday as an upper level ridge rapidly amplifies over the
Rockies/Plains by mid week. In fact, models are indicating it
amplifies so much it will capture the southern end of a Midwest
trough and cause it to retrograde back towards Texas by Thursday.
This will keep lower heights across the CWA and prevent much
warming this forecast period. There could be some isolated storms
associated with this late in the week but will keep the late week
forecast mostly dry for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  66  77  64  /  70  40  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              82  67  79  64  /  60  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  67  79  65  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  86  70  85  69  /  50  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  67  83  66  /  50  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  60  72  59  /  70  60  50  30
HOBBS NM                   77  64  77  62  /  70  60  50  20
MARFA TX                   80  62  76  59  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  67  80  65  /  70  40  30  20
ODESSA TX                  80  67  80  65  /  70  40  30  20
WINK TX                    84  69  83  67  /  70  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/10

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377
FXUS64 KMAF 210534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Yet again concern this forecast is the potential TSRA/MVFR CIGS/VSBY
in the near term and in the afternoon have kept TEMPO groups across
wrn sites where focus looks moreso today. Have kept TEMPO e and s too
but have tried use SHRA were appropriate. By 21Z there could be some
breaks in the BKN/OVC CIGS, but still with so much mstr available
SHRA/TSRA may form. Winds are less of an issue with mostly e-se
around 10kts expected.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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377
FXUS64 KMAF 210534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Yet again concern this forecast is the potential TSRA/MVFR CIGS/VSBY
in the near term and in the afternoon have kept TEMPO groups across
wrn sites where focus looks moreso today. Have kept TEMPO e and s too
but have tried use SHRA were appropriate. By 21Z there could be some
breaks in the BKN/OVC CIGS, but still with so much mstr available
SHRA/TSRA may form. Winds are less of an issue with mostly e-se
around 10kts expected.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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896
FXUS64 KMAF 202328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should become MVFR around 06z and continue through
at least Sunday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the next
24 hours at the terminals due to the remains of tropical system
and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in thunderstorms
and fog.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding continued over portions of the forecast area due to
the remnants of Tropical System Odile.  Although the areal coverage
of rain today was not as extensive as Thursday or Friday, over 10
inches of rain fell over portions of Borden County from 6 to 9 am
CDT, and resulted in most of the Farm to Market roads being flooded
across the eastern half of the county, water rising to resident
homes and some roads being impassable in Gail.  In addition, flood
water was slow to recede over southern Eddy County, northern
Culberson and northern Reeves County.  Evacuations were reported on
the northwest side of the city of Pecos due to runoff from heavy
rain to their west and northwest spreading east and southeast.

It appears the mid level remnants of Odile are weakening today, but
shearing out and moving southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  A
Mesoscale Convective Vortex over the northern CWA, and definitely
the tropical moisture over the area, resulted in the very heavy
rainfall in Borden County, 3-4 inches per hour conservatively per
the Texas Tech Mesonet site 2 ESE of Gail.  The latest progs
indicate the remnant circulation will move southward through the
Texas Panhandle and impinge upon eastern portions of the forecast
area later today and tonight.  The MCV over the northern CWA does
not appear to be moving appreciably.  The latest KMAF radar trends
this afternoon indicated showers and thunderstorms developing over
the Permian Basin, and in and near the Davis and Glass Mountains,
and more convection developing around the MCV.  Think convection
will continue to develop through the afternoon, and tonight when a
low level jet (LLJ) increases.  Convection could become more
widespread, especially considering the modus operandi of this
tropical airmass/system has been for nocturnal convection to
flourish when interacting with the nocturnal LLJ.  Considering all
of the above, the saturated ground which continues to expand over
more of the forecast area, and the potential for more heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, will extend the Flash Flood Watch through
tonight and Sunday.

On Sunday, it appears we will begin to be the recipients of more
tropical moisture, this time from Tropical Storm Polo, which is off
the western Mexico coast this afternoon.  Despite being separated
from this cyclone by a weak upper level ridge, it appears some
moisture peels away from this system and moves north, then
northeastward around/under the ua ridge.  It is not clear whether
any mid level circulations will peel away from this system, but
think there is enough evidence to keep PoPs high, and the FFA going
through Sunday.  Also of concern Sunday is a weak frontal boundary
moving into the area, which will provide a low level focus for
shower and thunderstorm development.  Despite the surface ridge
gradually pushing into the area Sunday night and Monday,
precipitable water amounts remain around 1.5 inches.  So, the
potential exists for heavy rains to continue beyond Sunday.  It
looks like we could dry out somewhat Tuesday and Wednesday, but high
temperatures look to stay near or below normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

80/67

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524
FXUS64 KMAF 201925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Major flooding continued over portions of the forecast area due to
the remnants of Tropical System Odile.  Although the areal coverage
of rain today was not as extensive as Thursday or Friday, over 10
inches of rain fell over portions of Borden County from 6 to 9 am
CDT, and resulted in most of the Farm to Market roads being flooded
across the eastern half of the county, water rising to resident
homes and some roads being impassable in Gail.  In addition, flood
water was slow to recede over southern Eddy County, northern
Culberson and northern Reeves County.  Evacuations were reported on
the northwest side of the city of Pecos due to runoff from heavy
rain to their west and northwest spreading east and southeast.

It appears the mid level remnants of Odile are weakening today, but
shearing out and moving southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  A
Mesoscale Convective Vortex over the northern CWA, and definitely
the tropical moisture over the area, resulted in the very heavy
rainfall in Borden County, 3-4 inches per hour conservatively per
the Texas Tech Mesonet site 2 ESE of Gail.  The latest progs
indicate the remnant circulation will move southward through the
Texas Panhandle and impinge upon eastern portions of the forecast
area later today and tonight.  The MCV over the northern CWA does
not appear to be moving appreciably.  The latest KMAF radar trends
this afternoon indicated showers and thunderstorms developing over
the Permian Basin, and in and near the Davis and Glass Mountains,
and more convection developing around the MCV.  Think convection
will continue to develop through the afternoon, and tonight when a
low level jet (LLJ) increases.  Convection could become more
widespread, especially considering the modus operandi of this
tropical airmass/system has been for nocturnal convection to
flourish when interacting with the nocturnal LLJ.  Considering all
of the above, the saturated ground which continues to expand over
more of the forecast area, and the potential for more heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, will extend the Flash Flood Watch through
tonight and Sunday.

On Sunday, it appears we will begin to be the recipients of more
tropical moisture, this time from Tropical Storm Polo, which is off
the western Mexico coast this afternoon.  Despite being separated
from this cyclone by a weak upper level ridge, it appears some
moisture peels away from this system and moves north, then
northeastward around/under the ua ridge.  It is not clear whether
any mid level circulations will peel away from this system, but
think there is enough evidence to keep PoPs high, and the FFA going
through Sunday.  Also of concern Sunday is a weak frontal boundary
moving into the area, which will provide a low level focus for
shower and thunderstorm development.  Despite the surface ridge
gradually pushing into the area Sunday night and Monday,
precipitable water amounts remain around 1.5 inches.  So, the
potential exists for heavy rains to continue beyond Sunday.  It
looks like we could dry out somewhat Tuesday and Wednesday, but high
temperatures look to stay near or below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  76  65  72  /  70  60  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  68  78  /  70  60  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                67  80  66  76  /  60  60  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  75  92  73  87  /  30  40  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  81  67  81  /  60  60  50  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  75  60  69  /  50  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   65  76  64  73  /  70  60  50  50
MARFA TX                   62  82  61  74  /  40  50  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  79  67  77  /  70  60  40  30
ODESSA TX                  68  78  67  77  /  70  60  40  30
WINK TX                    69  80  68  78  /  70  60  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

80/67

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377
FXUS64 KMAF 201717
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain continue across the area and are expected to continue
through the next 24 hours.  Rain is not really impacting the
terminals now but is expected to redevelop this afternoon and
evening.  Ceilings may gradually improve this afternoon but areas of
lower ceilings will remain.  Ceilings and visibilities will lower
around 03z Sunday and should remain low through Sunday morning.
Winds are expected to shift to the east and remain light.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Have been dealing with flash flooding the past couple of days and
that looks to continue today... possibly into tonight or Sunday.
Waves of storms associated with the remains of T.S. Odile have moved
through with development of new storms across SE NM and the Permian
Basin early this morning.  Model guidance and qpf continues to be
very wet today so expect moderate to heavy rain will continue today.
QPF wants to produce significant amounts of precip over the Trans
Pecos and the Permian Basin over the next 24 hrs.  Trends are for
precip to not be as heavy today over the western counties including
Eddy county which has been hard hit.

Counting today MAF has measured precipitation 6 out of the last 8
days with a trace on another day.  Latest MAF sounding still had PW
of 1.77 inches which is down very slightly over yesterday but still
unusually high/wet for here.  So atmosphere remains very moist with
potential for locally heavy rain.  Model soundings actually increase
PW to the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range today and Sunday.   GFS has much
lower pops today... which is a departure as last few days it has
been just as wet as MET guidance.  GFS has the heaviest rain over
the Permian Basin before noon and south over the Davis Mtns and
Marfa Plateau during the afternoon.  GFS continues to produce rain
along the Pecos river and westward Sunday... and only a little in
the CWA on Monday.  Meso Eta still has lots of rain over the Permian
Basin today... and on Sunday continues to develop precip over the
Western Permian Basin... Trans Pecos... Davis Mtns... and the Marfa
Plateau.  So expect the flash flood event may continue into Sunday
and be ending by Monday.

Plan on extending the FFA at least another 12hrs as model qpf
continues to develop heavy rain today over water soaked areas.
Could justify extending the FFA through tonight as additional heavy
rain expected for some locations... but will hold off as may be able
to trim some of the counties from the watch tonight.

High temperature forecasts continue to be difficult and very
dependent on amount of rainfall at any one location.  Widespread
cloud cover again today and tonight will moderate temps.  Yesterday
the diurnal temperature range at MAF was only 8 degrees.  Have been
expecting a weak front to move into the area Sunday but latest
models do not show one moving in.  It does bring the wind more
easterly on Sunday but not much cooling so have bumped up temps a
couple degrees.  Sunday stayed to the high side of guidance pops but
still lower than Saturday.  Even lower pops Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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969
FXUS64 KMAF 201129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS fairly widespread this morning and expected to stay so
thru the day, although have opted to lift CIGS to just above MVFR
by 21Z. Precip is n of MAf and e of HOB, but there is still new
development occurring. After a lull early this morning have
included TEMPO SHRA/TSRA late AM and PM at all sites. Any reprieve
from CIGS/VBSY this PM will limted with redevelopment expected
into Sun AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Have been dealing with flash flooding the past couple of days and
that looks to continue today... possibly into tonight or Sunday.
Waves of storms associated with the remains of T.S. Odile have moved
through with development of new storms across SE NM and the Permian
Basin early this morning.  Model guidance and qpf continues to be
very wet today so expect moderate to heavy rain will continue today.
QPF wants to produce significant amounts of precip over the Trans
Pecos and the Permian Basin over the next 24 hrs.  Trends are for
precip to not be as heavy today over the western counties including
Eddy county which has been hard hit.

Counting today MAF has measured precipitation 6 out of the last 8
days with a trace on another day.  Latest MAF sounding still had PW
of 1.77 inches which is down very slightly over yesterday but still
unusually high/wet for here.  So atmosphere remains very moist with
potential for locally heavy rain.  Model soundings actually increase
PW to the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range today and Sunday.   GFS has much
lower pops today... which is a departure as last few days it has
been just as wet as MET guidance.  GFS has the heaviest rain over
the Permian Basin before noon and south over the Davis Mtns and
Marfa Plateau during the afternoon.  GFS continues to produce rain
along the Pecos river and westward Sunday... and only a little in
the CWA on Monday.  Meso Eta still has lots of rain over the Permian
Basin today... and on Sunday continues to develop precip over the
Western Permian Basin... Trans Pecos... Davis Mtns... and the Marfa
Plateau.  So expect the flash flood event may continue into Sunday
and be ending by Monday.

Plan on extending the FFA at least another 12hrs as model qpf
continues to develop heavy rain today over water soaked areas.
Could justify extending the FFA through tonight as additional heavy
rain expected for some locations... but will hold off as may be able
to trim some of the counties from the watch tonight.

High temperature forecasts continue to be difficult and very
dependent on amount of rainfall at any one location.  Widespread
cloud cover again today and tonight will moderate temps.  Yesterday
the diurnal temperature range at MAF was only 8 degrees.  Have been
expecting a weak front to move into the area Sunday but latest
models do not show one moving in.  It does bring the wind more
easterly on Sunday but not much cooling so have bumped up temps a
couple degrees.  Sunday stayed to the high side of guidance pops but
still lower than Saturday.  Even lower pops Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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723
FXUS64 KMAF 200930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have been dealing with flash flooding the past couple of days and
that looks to continue today... possibly into tonight or Sunday.
Waves of storms associated with the remains of T.S. Odile have moved
through with development of new storms across SE NM and the Permian
Basin early this morning.  Model guidance and qpf continues to be
very wet today so expect moderate to heavy rain will continue today.
QPF wants to produce significant amounts of precip over the Trans
Pecos and the Permian Basin over the next 24 hrs.  Trends are for
precip to not be as heavy today over the western counties including
Eddy county which has been hard hit.

Counting today MAF has measured precipitation 6 out of the last 8
days with a trace on another day.  Latest MAF sounding still had PW
of 1.77 inches which is down very slightly over yesterday but still
unusually high/wet for here.  So atmosphere remains very moist with
potential for locally heavy rain.  Model soundings actually increase
PW to the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range today and Sunday.   GFS has much
lower pops today... which is a departure as last few days it has
been just as wet as MET guidance.  GFS has the heaviest rain over
the Permian Basin before noon and south over the Davis Mtns and
Marfa Plateau during the afternoon.  GFS continues to produce rain
along the Pecos river and westward Sunday... and only a little in
the CWA on Monday.  Meso Eta still has lots of rain over the Permian
Basin today... and on Sunday continues to develop precip over the
Western Permian Basin... Trans Pecos... Davis Mtns... and the Marfa
Plateau.  So expect the flash flood event may continue into Sunday
and be ending by Monday.

Plan on extending the FFA at least another 12hrs as model qpf
continues to develop heavy rain today over water soaked areas.
Could justify extending the FFA through tonight as additional heavy
rain expected for some locations... but will hold off as may be able
to trim some of the counties from the watch tonight.

High temperature forecasts continue to be difficult and very
dependent on amount of rainfall at any one location.  Widespread
cloud cover again today and tonight will moderate temps.  Yesterday
the diurnal temperature range at MAF was only 8 degrees.  Have been
expecting a weak front to move into the area Sunday but latest
models do not show one moving in.  It does bring the wind more
easterly on Sunday but not much cooling so have bumped up temps a
couple degrees.  Sunday stayed to the high side of guidance pops but
still lower than Saturday.  Even lower pops Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  67  80  65  /  70  70  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              82  69  83  68  /  70  60  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                83  67  82  66  /  50  60  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  94  75  93  73  /  40  30  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  68  84  67  /  50  50  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  62  78  60  /  40  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   80  65  80  64  /  70  70  60  40
MARFA TX                   82  62  80  61  /  50  40  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  68  82  67  /  70  60  60  40
ODESSA TX                  82  68  82  67  /  70  60  60  40
WINK TX                    84  69  85  68  /  60  60  60  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/72

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 200534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concerns continues to the TSRA with MVFR/IFR CIGS. Currently
TSRA are in btwn TAF sites with development possible. Have tried to
limit used of TEMPO TSRA and have gone SHRA at PEQ/FST/CNM/HOB.
Have kept MVFR CIGS thru most of the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become mostly MVFR around 06z and continue
through at least mid Saturday morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be
expected the next 24 hours at most locations due to the remains of
tropical system and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in
thunderstorms. The exceptions were KPEQ and KFST where confidence
was not as high, so included prob30 groups for MVFR conditions.
Looking for prevailing MVFR ceilings to become VFR during Saturday
afternoon.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$


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636
FXUS64 KMAF 200534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concerns continues to the TSRA with MVFR/IFR CIGS. Currently
TSRA are in btwn TAF sites with development possible. Have tried to
limit used of TEMPO TSRA and have gone SHRA at PEQ/FST/CNM/HOB.
Have kept MVFR CIGS thru most of the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become mostly MVFR around 06z and continue
through at least mid Saturday morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be
expected the next 24 hours at most locations due to the remains of
tropical system and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in
thunderstorms. The exceptions were KPEQ and KFST where confidence
was not as high, so included prob30 groups for MVFR conditions.
Looking for prevailing MVFR ceilings to become VFR during Saturday
afternoon.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$


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043
FXUS64 KMAF 192336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become mostly MVFR around 06z and continue
through at least mid Saturday morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be
expected the next 24 hours at most locations due to the remains of
tropical system and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in
thunderstorms. The exceptions were KPEQ and KFST where confidence
was not as high, so included prob30 groups for MVFR conditions.
Looking for prevailing MVFR ceilings to become VFR during Saturday
afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12

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551
FXUS64 KMAF 191936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  77  66  77  /  70  70  60  60
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  82  /  60  70  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                66  83  67  78  /  60  40  60  60
DRYDEN TX                  74  93  75  91  /  30  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  86  67  80  /  60  30  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  77  61  76  /  50  20  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  78  64  78  /  70  50  60  60
MARFA TX                   62  82  61  78  /  30  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
ODESSA TX                  68  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
WINK TX                    69  82  68  84  /  60  40  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

29/67

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564
FXUS64 KMAF 191751
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
Heavy rain was beginning to diminish over the central Permian
Basin, but is still possible at KMAF in the next hour or so.
Other terminals will begin to return to VFR this
afternoon...however more rain is expected tonight with lowering
cigs through Saturday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

29

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194
FXUS64 KMAF 191241
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
741 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add Ward, Pecos, Crane, Upton and Reagan to the Flash
Flood Watch through tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex is currently moving across the
forecast area accompanied by a large area of showers and
thunderstorms.  One hour rainfall totals are topping out in the 1-2
inch range with the embedded thunderstorms.  Many areas being
affected by the heavy rainfall right now have had heavy rainfall in
the last 24-36 hours, although it has been spotty further south.
Since the 19/12Z KMAF sounding had a precipitable water of 1.81,
which is over 3 standard deviations above normal, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are definitely a continuing threat today and tonight.
The showers and thunderstorms on radar are progressing to the
east/southeast, so have decided to add Ward, Pecos, Crane, Upton and
Reagan to the Flash Flood Watch.  Have increased PoPs and
increased rainfall amounts in the forecast.  We may need to extend
the Watch further south later today since the remnants of Odile
appear to be moving eastward over the area, as opposed to
northeast as previous models suggested.  Stay tuned.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  67  83  68  / 100  70  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  69  84  70  / 100  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                81  66  83  68  /  80  60  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  88  74  89  76  /  40  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  68  88  69  /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  63  83  62  /  60  50  20  20
HOBBS NM                   79  64  82  65  / 100  70  30  30
MARFA TX                   80  62  82  62  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  69  84  69  / 100  60  50  40
ODESSA TX                  83  68  85  68  / 100  60  40  40
WINK TX                    85  69  89  69  / 100  60  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 191036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 191036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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852
FXUS64 KMAF 190919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  67  83  68  /  70  70  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  69  84  70  /  60  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                81  66  83  68  /  70  60  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  88  74  89  76  /  40  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  68  88  69  /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  63  83  62  /  60  50  20  20
HOBBS NM                   79  64  82  65  /  70  70  30  30
MARFA TX                   80  62  82  62  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  69  84  69  /  60  60  50  40
ODESSA TX                  83  68  85  68  /  60  60  40  40
WINK TX                    85  69  89  69  /  70  60  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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719
FXUS64 KMAF 190518
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings expected overnight through Friday morning
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered
thunderstorms can be expected the next 24 hours and have added
TEMPO groups for tempo MVFR to IFR conditions in thunderstorms.
Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by Friday afternoon with
MVFR ceilings likely returning Friday night.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become MVFR before 06z and continue through
at least mid Friday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the
next 24 hours and have added TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms. Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by
late Friday morning.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$



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733
FXUS64 KMAF 182312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become MVFR before 06z and continue through
at least mid Friday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the
next 24 hours and have added TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms. Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by
late Friday morning.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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776
FXUS64 KMAF 182003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  82  68  85  /  70  60  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              69  84  70  85  /  60  50  50  50
CARLSBAD NM                68  81  67  84  /  80  60  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  89  75  90  /  40  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  86  69  89  /  50  40  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  80  64  84  /  70  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                   66  79  65  82  /  80  70  50  30
MARFA TX                   62  81  62  83  /  50  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  84  70  86  /  60  50  40  40
ODESSA TX                  69  84  69  86  /  60  50  40  40
WINK TX                    71  88  71  91  /  60  50  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/27

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715
FXUS64 KMAF 181743
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening at all but
KMAF and KINK where MVFR ceilings will hang in until at least
18/20Z. Think more thunderstorms will develop through this
evening, so have included TSRA at all TAF sites. Will lower
ceilings to MVFR at most sites tonight, but later issuances will
tackle more reductions in ceiling and visibility due to heavy rain
and fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the Davis Mountains and
across portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Remnants of tropical system Odile were located west of El Paso this
morning, and moving east/northeastward.  Copious amounts of moisture
associated with Odile have allowed PWats to rise to 1.75 inches,
which is verified on the KMAF sounding, and is around 3 standard
deviations above normal.  Moderate to heavy rain was occurring over
the northern Permian Basin around 18/15Z, while portions of Eddy,
Lea, Gaines and Andrews counties had heavy rainfall in the last 6 to
8 hours.  Some of these locations have received 3 to 4 inches.

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex was moving across Gaines County in the
northern Permian Basin.  This MCV may move out of the CWA in the
next few hours, however there are indications in Water Vapor imagery
that additional mid level circulations will be moving over the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.  As the atmosphere
destabilizes from in and around the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe
Mountains, progs are indicating upwards of 1000 J/Kg, expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread east and
northeastward across the forecast area.  Expect subsequent showers
and storms to move around 10 to 15 mph, with some of the storms
possibly producing up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in an hour.
Considering the above, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include the Davis Mountains, and much of the Permian Basin.  Also,
expanded the FFA until 20/00Z.  Will send an update to the forecast
shortly.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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024
FXUS64 KMAF 181540
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the Davis Mountains and
across portions of the Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remnants of tropical system Odile were located west of El Paso this
morning, and moving east/northeastward.  Copious amounts of moisture
associated with Odile have allowed PWats to rise to 1.75 inches,
which is verified on the KMAF sounding, and is around 3 standard
deviations above normal.  Moderate to heavy rain was occurring over
the northern Permian Basin around 18/15Z, while portions of Eddy,
Lea, Gaines and Andrews counties had heavy rainfall in the last 6 to
8 hours.  Some of these locations have received 3 to 4 inches.

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex was moving across Gaines County in the
northern Permian Basin.  This MCV may move out of the CWA in the
next few hours, however there are indications in Water Vapor imagery
that additional mid level circulations will be moving over the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.  As the atmosphere
destabilizes from in and around the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe
Mountains, progs are indicating upwards of 1000 J/Kg, expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread east and
northeastward across the forecast area.  Expect subsequent showers
and storms to move around 10 to 15 mph, with some of the storms
possibly producing up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in an hour.
Considering the above, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include the Davis Mountains, and much of the Permian Basin.  Also,
expanded the FFA until 20/00Z.  Will send an update to the forecast
shortly.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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483
FXUS64 KMAF 181039
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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093
FXUS64 KMAF 180908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/72

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838
FXUS64 KMAF 180533
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR cigs are forecast to develop KHOB/KINK/KMAF overnight, but
scatter out to VFR after sunrise. Have inserted a mention of
convection for KMAF to cover the next few hours. Otherwise, OVC
VFR cigs should prevail next 18 hours, w/cigs deteriorating after
00Z Friday. Expect MVFR cigs KCNM/KMAF, and IFR KHOB near the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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131
FXUS64 KMAF 172310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

10

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623
FXUS64 KMAF 172003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  78  68  81  /  50  70  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              70  80  69  84  /  50  60  40  50
CARLSBAD NM                68  76  68  83  /  60  70  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  74  91  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  83  71  86  /  50  50  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  74  63  78  /  60  60  60  40
HOBBS NM                   65  74  65  78  /  60  60  50  60
MARFA TX                   61  79  62  81  /  40  60  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  69  83  /  50  60  40  40
ODESSA TX                  69  79  69  82  /  50  60  40  40
WINK TX                    69  82  70  86  /  50  60  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

49/27

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366
FXUS64 KMAF 171727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern around this forecast is potential for TSRA. Visible
satellite shows less clouds today than previou several days and
LI/s show there is surface based destablization ongoing. Surface
boundaries are lacking so initially higher terrain w of TAF sites
is favored for initiation which may then move into/near CNM
first. Overnight good agreement that storms may impact INK/HOB/PEQ
TAFS. Have opted to include TEMPO TSRA CNM/HOB and PROB30
elsewhere, except FST, at 04Z. MVFR CIGS/vsby with TSRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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050
FXUS64 KMAF 171148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds have been slow to develop so have raised forecasted cigs.
Some fog possible.  Expect mainly VFR conditions with limited MVFR
cigs and vsbys.  Best chance of heavy showers at CNM and HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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693
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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105
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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940
FXUS64 KMAF 162336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Current VFR conditions are expected to drop to MVFR again tonight
and possibly to IFR by 12Z. -SHRA is moving off to the east and we
should catch a break from the rain tonight with more showers
developing tomorrow. There may be some lightning but it will be
infrequent so will keep -SHRA in the TAFs for now and AMD to TSRA
as/if needed. All sites should return to VFR around 18Z Wed.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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040
FXUS64 KMAF 162023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  79  66  79  /  30  40  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  83  /  30  30  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                67  79  66  81  /  60  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  72  89  72  89  /  20  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  83  70  86  /  20  30  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  74  61  75  /  50  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  77  63  79  /  40  50  50  50
MARFA TX                   61  78  61  83  /  10  30  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  80  69  83  /  30  30  40  50
ODESSA TX                  68  81  69  81  /  30  40  40  50
WINK TX                    69  83  69  87  /  30  40  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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439
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have mostly lifted across the TAFs sites, except at HOB
where -SHRA are moving thru. Visible imagery indicates clouds
will hang around thru the day and we are watching cu field expand to
the e/se of MAf where there is some sunshine and the potential for
SHRA to develop from se-nw into the MAF area this PM. Otherwise
tonight have included TEMPO TSRA at CNM and have brought MVFR CIGS
back in at all sites around 09Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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371
FXUS64 KMAF 161139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling cigs as low clouds over the South Plains hiding
under extensive mid cloud deck move south. Will see development
of MVFR cigs and vsbys as some fog forms.  Best chance of rain/storms
will be at CNM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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846
FXUS64 KMAF 160915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  65  81  66  /  20  10  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              80  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  68  80  66  /  30  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  71  87  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  68  84  70  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  60  75  63  /  30  30  50  30
HOBBS NM                   73  64  79  64  /  20  10  30  40
MARFA TX                   77  61  76  60  /  10  10  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  68  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  85  69  /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/44

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846
FXUS64 KMAF 160915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  65  81  66  /  20  10  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              80  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  68  80  66  /  30  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  71  87  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  68  84  70  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  60  75  63  /  30  30  50  30
HOBBS NM                   73  64  79  64  /  20  10  30  40
MARFA TX                   77  61  76  60  /  10  10  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  68  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  85  69  /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/44

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865
FXUS64 KMAF 160543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have widespread mid and high clouds with increasing low clouds expected.
VFR conditions will deteriorate with cigs becoming mainly MVFR with some
IFR around sunrise for CNM and HOB.  Vsbys should be VFR or high MVFR with
a little fog possible.  Could also see a few light showers overnight.
Wind light and variable becoming E to SE during the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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865
FXUS64 KMAF 160543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have widespread mid and high clouds with increasing low clouds expected.
VFR conditions will deteriorate with cigs becoming mainly MVFR with some
IFR around sunrise for CNM and HOB.  Vsbys should be VFR or high MVFR with
a little fog possible.  Could also see a few light showers overnight.
Wind light and variable becoming E to SE during the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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341
FXUS64 KMAF 152301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to form late.  Will include temporary MVFR, and a few
IFR, ceilings and visibilities at all but KFST and KPEQ for now.
A weak cold front will move south into the region late tonight,
and likely promote development of more MVFR ceilings.  KHOB is
most likely to be affected.  Ceilings should rise through late
morning, but TSRA will be possible at most TAF sites Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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