Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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618
FXUS64 KMAF 142318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR are hanging tough over southeast New Mexico, and will leave
them there.  Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to prevail through
this evening.  Think all TAF sites will have IFR ceilings develop in
the 15/06Z to 15/09Z time frame, along with MVFR visibilities in
drizzle and fog.  Ceilings and visibilities should improve at all
TAF sites by 15/15-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The initial precip shield is exiting the area as shrtwv trof lifts
nwd as a secondary area of -SHRA tracks ne across the Lower Trans
Pecos/srn PB. Overnight a few -SHRA mainly acros the far w and patchy
fog will be possible, but not too thick with the clouds holding in.
Monday the mid level ridge will develop farther n so it will be a
down day wrt precip, however across the far w where the ridge
will be weaker there is some indication of a weak shear axis and
a slight chance/chance PoPs needed there. NAM12 seems too
optimistic with precip within ridge axis across the PB. Still
cloudy Monday across most all areas, but soundings show cloud
higher and will reflect a slow warming trend. A shrtwv trof moving
thru the central Plains will push a front into the Panhandle
Monday PM which is set to arrive in the PB 10Z- 12Z Tue. No
surprise best PoPs will be along and n of the front Tue AM.
Depending on amount of post frontal precip the front will have a
chance to push into areas just s of I-20 and thus precip chance
may be a little higher there in the PM. It will still be cloudy
Tue and with the front it will still be cool, just below normal.
Current forecast handles this general idea well, but will try to
tighten PoPs some on the srn extent. A shrtwv trof within a well
defined mid level theta-e ridge (possibly kicked out from Odile)
will move in from the w late Tue night/Wed AM providing enuf lift
in the moist atmosphere to result in continuation of at least
slight chance/chance PoPs. NAM12 reflects rain cooled air and
temps of 75-80 for areas n of I-20. Said shrtwv trof/shear axis
will have chance to meander in weak flow across the area Thur. For
now best precip chance will be s and w where deeper moisture has
better chance to hold. Fri-Sun the pattern has alot of change and
room for error wrt potential of deepening trof the w and a cold
front driven by strong nw mid level flow across central and nrn
high plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  82  64  78  /  10  20  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              66  80  68  82  /  10  10  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                62  82  66  80  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  66  84  71  89  /  20  20  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  85  66  79  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  75  59  73  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   59  80  63  78  /  20  30  40  40
MARFA TX                   56  77  59  76  /  20  30  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  84  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  63  83  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
WINK TX                    63  87  68  83  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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