Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 200845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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548
FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of the night with
TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals in the 12z to 16z
Monday time frame. An upper level low pressure area across northern
Mexico will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and west Texas during
the day Monday. Confidence was high enough to include prob 30
groups from 15z to 21z Monday for MVFR conditions in -TSRA at
KCNM, KPEQ, KFST.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 192306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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836
FXUS64 KMAF 191922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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432
FXUS64 KMAF 191724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly -SHRA are near PEQ/INK/HOB/MAF. Development of -SHRA/-TSRA
is slow, but there is enough of a trend to expect development to
continue thru the PM. Have opted to include -SHRA at HOB/PEQ btwn
19Z-21Z. -TSRA potential is too low to include attm. MVFR CIGS
will again be possible overnight mainly after 07Z, per NAM BUFR
soundings and have included.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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025
FXUS64 KMAF 191320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:15 am CDT Sunday...radar continues to show
mainly light shower activity over the western portions of the CWA.
Based on radar imagery and cooling cloud tops per IR imagery have
decided to bump up pops in the west for today. Have kept chc pops
in the east as convective activity in northern Mexico south of
Terrell County is forecast to spread north and northwest today.

Strobin

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have been a little slow developing this morning though
they have made an appearance at INK and FST. Latest satellite
shows low clouds to the south and east expanding into the area
which agrees with model data so will continue to keep BKN010-020
in TAFs this morning. This will lift this afternoon with another
round expected again tonight. There will be isolated TS but
coverage is not great enough to put in the prevailing WX of any
TAF site.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  55  72  54  /  30  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              74  57  76  58  /  30  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  58  72  55  /  30  30  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  79  63  78  62  /  50  20  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  59  74  58  /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  53  68  51  /  30  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   73  55  71  55  /  20  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   74  52  69  52  /  30  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  57  74  57  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  57  74  57  /  30  20  30  30
WINK TX                    75  58  75  58  /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33/49

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206
FXUS64 KMAF 191123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have been a little slow developing this morning though
they have made an appearance at INK and FST. Latest satellite
shows low clouds to the south and east expanding into the area
which agrees with model data so will continue to keep BKN010-020
in TAFs this morning. This will lift this afternoon with another
round expected again tonight. There will be isolated TS but
coverage is not great enough to put in the prevailing WX of any
TAF site.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 190908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  55  72  54  /  30  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              74  57  76  58  /  30  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  58  72  55  /  20  30  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  79  63  78  62  /  50  20  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  59  74  58  /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  53  68  51  /  20  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   73  55  71  55  /  20  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   74  52  69  52  /  20  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  57  74  57  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  57  74  57  /  30  20  30  30
WINK TX                    75  58  75  58  /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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421
FXUS64 KMAF 190536
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper low will draw moisture northward bringing MVFR/IFR CIGs
into the area around 12Z. These CIGs should lift after 18Z but a
return of low clouds is expected near the end or just after the
end of this TAF period. The low will also bring showers and
isolated TS, though not enough to put in the prevailing weather
group at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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071
FXUS64 KMAF 182333
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are expected to be out of the east through Sunday morning and
then become southeasterly.  Winds will generally remain light with
some gusts possible Sunday afternoon.  Precipitation will move into
the area Sunday morning with the best chances for KMAF.  Low clouds
will move into the area around 09z with the lowest ceilings likely
occurring around 13z.  Ceilings will probably improve around 19z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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549
FXUS64 KMAF 181936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  73  56  72  /  10  30  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              56  74  58  76  /   0  30  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                53  72  56  72  /  20  20  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  64  77  64  78  /  30  30  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  76  59  74  /  10  20  20  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  65  53  68  /  10  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                   49  73  54  71  /  10  20  20  40
MARFA TX                   47  74  50  69  /  10  20  40  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  75  58  74  /   0  30  10  40
ODESSA TX                  56  75  59  74  /   0  30  10  40
WINK TX                    58  75  61  75  /   0  30  20  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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061
FXUS64 KMAF 181729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are dissipating around and e of HOB with some BKN100 remaining.
Concern for the overnight is the return of MVFR CIGS which looks to
be most likely after 10Z. Satellite showed considerable low clouds/mstr
well to the s this AM and we expect that this mstr will surge nwd
overnight. Also have opted to include PROB30 -TSRA all locales except
CNM/HOB starting as early as 13Z at FST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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923
FXUS64 KMAF 181436 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
936 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have sent an update to increase PoPs in the chance category across
the far NW CWFA where mostly showers are moving ne across that
area. Local rainfall amounts around .15" possible, TTU Mesonet in
SE NM shows that .14" at Hobbs and .18" at Tatum has fallen.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Light showers and isolated TS are moving across southeast NM this
morning but should have minimal impact at the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected through 06Z with MVFR CIGs arriving at
MAF/HOB/CNM 19/06-12Z. These CIGs will arrive later at the other
TAF sites and have not been included with this issuance.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  54  73  58  /  20  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              75  56  73  59  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  54  74  58  /  20  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  85  63  74  64  /   0  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  75  59  /   0  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  51  68  55  /  10  10  20  40
HOBBS NM                   73  50  73  56  /  30  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  49  74  52  /   0  10  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  54  72  59  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  57  73  60  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    80  58  75  62  /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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534
FXUS64 KMAF 181122
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light showers and isolated TS are moving across southeast NM this
morning but should have minimal impact at the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected through 06Z with MVFR CIGs arriving at
MAF/HOB/CNM 19/06-12Z. These CIGs will arrive later at the other
TAF sites and have not been included with this issuance.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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125
FXUS64 KMAF 180907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  54  73  58  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              75  56  73  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  54  74  58  /  20  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  85  63  74  64  /   0  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  75  59  /   0  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  51  68  55  /  10  10  20  40
HOBBS NM                   73  50  73  56  /  20  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  49  74  52  /   0  10  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  54  72  59  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  57  73  60  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    80  58  75  62  /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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472
FXUS64 KMAF 180538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting mostly VFR conditions through the period though brief
MVRF CIGs may appear in southeast NM 12-18Z. Light northeast winds
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is INVOF of Pecos River and will lose momentum
near e slopes of mtns this evening. Meanwhile satellite does show
shrtwv trof INVOF AZ which will track across AZ/NM overnight with
enuf mid level lift and instability with trof axis for elevated
TSRA tonight/SAT AM, mainly across SE NM. There will be drier
surface air there however, in association with surface ridging,
thus favoring light precip amounts. Said surface ridging and
clouds, especially n of I-20 will make for noticeably cooler temps
Sat, U60s-U70s. Low level mstr will increase some Sunday, but more
interesting wx will be off to the w of CWFA in closer proximity
to an upper low that develops near Baja Calif. Sunday`s high temps
will be only a little a warmer with less surface ridging, but
still below normal. Said upper low will slowly move closer thru
Monday, near El Paso City or just to the s, so mid level flow will
back giving a little more time for low levels to moisten further.
7h-5h LRs of 6-6.5 C/km suggestive of SHRA with a few TSRA. Good
agreement among models that best PoPs will be across the w-sw CWFA
and current fcst will only need minor adjustments. Upper low will
weaken to the w Monday night into Tuesday and better PoPs will
remain to the w with seasonal to just below normal temps.
Thereafter differences appear in models with ECMWF deepening a
trof/precip farther w than GFS. Little change to forecast with
model uncertainty for now

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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091
FXUS64 KMAF 171057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front will continue to ease south into the area today,
with north to northeast winds around 10kt or less behind it.  A
dry atmosphere will result in VFR sky conditions prevailing
areawide through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014/

A couple of upper level low pressure areas are consolidating
across the Great Lakes and will drop a cold front south into the
forecast area today. The front is forecast to be near the Pecos
River by this evening. High temperatures will cool several degrees
today behind the front but temperatures are still expected to
remain above normal with a decent amount of sunshine expected. The
front is forecast to settle south and west toward the Rio Grande
River and into the New Mexico mountains by Saturday morning. This
aggressive push of the front suggests that high temperatures will
remain below normal both Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation
is expected this weekend in the region. One exception could be
tonight and Saturday for northern portions of the southeast New
Mexico plains as a weak upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico weakens and moves northeast and clips that area
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms behind the
front.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area,
especially west of the Pecos River. The higher pops and higher QPF
output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the GFS given the
forecast of a negatively tilted upper level system. This upper
low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low level
easterly flow and abundant cloud cover should keep high
temperatures near to slightly below normal values Monday and
Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through Thursday yet another potent upper level
storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting in a
continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday
across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A slower and
more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a higher chance of
convection with heavier rainfall possible. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Wednesday and
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected.

Kept Thursday night through next Friday night dry for now pending
better agreement on timing of this latter system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  51  70  53  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              84  53  73  55  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  51  74  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  94  60  85  61  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  55  80  54  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  50  69  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  49  71  49  /   0  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   88  43  76  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  53  73  53  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  53  73  57  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    90  55  78  53  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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408
FXUS64 KMAF 170853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of upper level low pressure areas are consolidating
across the Great Lakes and will drop a cold front south into the
forecast area today. The front is forecast to be near the Pecos
River by this evening. High temperatures will cool several degrees
today behind the front but temperatures are still expected to
remain above normal with a decent amount of sunshine expected. The
front is forecast to settle south and west toward the Rio Grande
River and into the New Mexico mountains by Saturday morning. This
aggressive push of the front suggests that high temperatures will
remain below normal both Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation
is expected this weekend in the region. One exception could be
tonight and Saturday for northern portions of the southeast New
Mexico plains as a weak upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico weakens and moves northeast and clips that area
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms behind the
front.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area,
especially west of the Pecos River. The higher pops and higher QPF
output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the GFS given the
forecast of a negatively tilted upper level system. This upper
low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low level
easterly flow and abundant cloud cover should keep high
temperatures near to slightly below normal values Monday and
Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through Thursday yet another potent upper level
storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting in a
continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday
across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A slower and
more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a higher chance of
convection with heavier rainfall possible. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Wednesday and
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected.

Kept Thursday night through next Friday night dry for now pending
better agreement on timing of this latter system.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  51  70  53  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              84  53  73  55  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  51  74  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  94  60  85  61  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  55  80  54  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  50  69  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  49  71  49  /   0  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   88  43  76  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  53  73  53  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  53  73  57  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    90  55  78  53  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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815
FXUS64 KMAF 170459
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.  A cold front will move into the
area this morning, but will mainly provide a wind shift at most
terminals with speeds remaining less the 15kt.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a
ridge of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather
patterns. Expect clear skies and generally light and variable
winds to continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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004
FXUS64 KMAF 162319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
light and variable through the overnight period.  A cold front will
move through the area tomorrow morning bringing winds out of the
northeast.  Some gusts may occur with the cold front but otherwise
winds are expected to be light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a ridge
of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather patterns.
Expect clear skies and generally light and variable winds to
continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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822
FXUS64 KMAF 162006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a ridge
of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather patterns.
Expect clear skies and generally light and variable winds to
continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  82  51  72  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              54  83  53  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                52  83  54  72  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  56  93  58  83  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  94  57  81  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  83  53  69  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   51  79  49  70  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   44  88  45  79  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  52  76  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  84  53  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    52  89  55  78  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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612
FXUS64 KMAF 161728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail thru the night. W-NW winds ahead of a
front today will turn back to the SW this evening before turning N
toward morning as a weak cold front passes through.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and much
above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough with low
level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result in near
record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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162
FXUS64 KMAF 161109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and much
above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough with low
level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result in near
record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  51  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  53  86  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                90  49  89  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  56  94  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  59  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  60  84  53  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   92  49  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   88  44  89  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  52  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  92  54  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    95  50  90  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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423
FXUS64 KMAF 160914
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and
much above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough
with low level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result
in near record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  51  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  53  86  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                90  49  89  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  56  94  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  59  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  60  84  53  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   92  49  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   88  44  89  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  52  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  92  54  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    95  50  90  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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645
FXUS64 KMAF 160503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

High clouds will begin to spread over the region today, but
conditions will remain VFR throughout the forecast period.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014/

An upper ridge along with sfc high pressure will continue to bring
warm and dry conditions to the region. Cool temperatures at night
will transition to very warm afternoons. A sfc trough will develop
over the TX Panhandle tomorrow inducing downsloping, southwesterly
winds across the area. This will give temperatures a boost to near
record territory. The record high for Oct 16th for Midland Intl is
92 degrees set in 2003. The current forecast keeps temperatures
near 90 across the Permian Basin with mid 90`s possible in the Trans
Pecos region.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes Region
helping to send a weak, backdoor cold front into the area Friday
morning. Temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees, but still
remain above normal into the weekend. Attention then turns to a
trough expected to dig along the West Coast this weekend. This
trough is expected to weaken as it makes its way across northern
Mexico, but should help to increase rain chances over our area. PoPs
have been increased for the beginning of next week and temps have
been lowered slightly given the extra cloud cover.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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433
FXUS64 KMAF 152228
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/CAVU conditions
expected. South winds will veer to southwest after sunrise as a
leeside trough slips SE into Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge along with sfc high pressure will continue to bring
warm and dry conditions to the region. Cool temperatures at night
will transition to very warm afternoons. A sfc trough will develop
over the TX Panhandle tomorrow inducing downsloping, southwesterly
winds across the area. This will give temperatures a boost to near
record territory. The record high for Oct 16th for Midland Intl is
92 degrees set in 2003. The current forecast keeps temperatures
near 90 across the Permian Basin with mid 90`s possible in the Trans
Pecos region.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes Region
helping to send a weak, backdoor cold front into the area Friday
morning. Temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees, but still
remain above normal into the weekend. Attention then turns to a
trough expected to dig along the West Coast this weekend. This
trough is expected to weaken as it makes its way across northern
Mexico, but should help to increase rain chances over our area. PoPs
have been increased for the beginning of next week and temps have
been lowered slightly given the extra cloud cover.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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810
FXUS64 KMAF 151951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
251 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge along with sfc high pressure will continue to bring
warm and dry conditions to the region. Cool temperatures at night
will transition to very warm afternoons. A sfc trough will develop
over the TX Panhandle tomorrow inducing downsloping, southwesterly
winds across the area. This will give temperatures a boost to near
record territory. The record high for Oct 16th for Midland Intl is
92 degrees set in 2003. The current forecast keeps temperatures
near 90 across the Permian Basin with mid 90`s possible in the Trans
Pecos region.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes Region
helping to send a weak, backdoor cold front into the area Friday
morning. Temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees, but still
remain above normal into the weekend. Attention then turns to a
trough expected to dig along the West Coast this weekend. This
trough is expected to weaken as it makes its way across northern
Mexico, but should help to increase rain chances over our area. PoPs
have been increased for the beginning of next week and temps have
been lowered slightly given the extra cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  89  51  83  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  92  53  85  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                45  88  51  85  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  53  92  56  93  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  93  59  89  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  81  60  80  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   47  87  49  79  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  86  44  86  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    50  90  52  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  52  89  54  85  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    46  93  50  88  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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864
FXUS64 KMAF 151709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light south winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through tonight resulting in more clear skies and slightly
above normal temperatures this afternoon with cool temperatures
tonight. The upper flow is forecast to turn zonal on Thursday
resulting in a deeper surface trough along with low level thermal
ridging and much above normal temperatures with downslope flow.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate and drop a cold front south into the forecast
area Friday. The front is forecast to gradually sink south and
west toward the mountains by Saturday with temperatures knocked
back to more normal values. No precipitation is expected these
periods as a weak upper level trough across northern Mexico
on Friday weakens and moves northeast of the region by Saturday.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
Mexico next Monday and Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the mountains and the immediate adjacent
plains. The upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation
and low level easterly flow should keep high temperatures below
normal.

Will continue a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly west of the
Pecos River next Wednesday as another upper level trough
approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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390
FXUS64 KMAF 151120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear skies and winds less than 10kt will accompany VFR conditions
areawide today and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through tonight resulting in more clear skies and slightly
above normal temperatures this afternoon with cool temperatures
tonight. The upper flow is forecast to turn zonal on Thursday
resulting in a deeper surface trough along with low level thermal
ridging and much above normal temperatures with downslope flow.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate and drop a cold front south into the forecast
area Friday. The front is forecast to gradually sink south and
west toward the mountains by Saturday with temperatures knocked
back to more normal values. No precipitation is expected these
periods as a weak upper level trough across northern Mexico
on Friday weakens and moves northeast of the region by Saturday.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
Mexico next Monday and Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the mountains and the immediate adjacent
plains. The upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation
and low level easterly flow should keep high temperatures below
normal.

Will continue a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly west of the
Pecos River next Wednesday as another upper level trough
approaches the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  49  91  50  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  91  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                83  43  93  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  87  52  95  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  57  95  58  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  56  85  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  46  92  48  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  37  86  43  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  48  91  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  52  91  53  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    85  45  95  51  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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590
FXUS64 KMAF 150859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through tonight resulting in more clear skies and slightly
above normal temperatures this afternoon with cool temperatures
tonight. The upper flow is forecast to turn zonal on Thursday
resulting in a deeper surface trough along with low level thermal
ridging and much above normal temperatures with downslope flow.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate and drop a cold front south into the forecast
area Friday. The front is forecast to gradually sink south and
west toward the mountains by Saturday with temperatures knocked
back to more normal values. No precipitation is expected these
periods as a weak upper level trough across northern Mexico
on Friday weakens and moves northeast of the region by Saturday.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
Mexico next Monday and Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the mountains and the immediate adjacent
plains. The upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation
and low level easterly flow should keep high temperatures below
normal.

Will continue a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly west of the
Pecos River next Wednesday as another upper level trough
approaches the region.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  49  91  50  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  91  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                83  43  93  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  87  52  95  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  57  95  58  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  56  85  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  46  92  48  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  37  86  43  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  48  91  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  52  91  53  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    85  45  95  51  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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820
FXUS64 KMAF 150447
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas today and tonight. Winds will generally be less than 10kt
areawide for the duration.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014/

Much calmer conditions this afternoon when compared to yesterday as
high pressure has settled in across the Lone Star state. We
started off very chilly this morning with Marfa dropping down to
30 degrees. Expect a very similar forecast for low temperatures
come Wednesday morning with little change in the sfc pattern. An
upper ridge currently to our west will build over the area
tomorrow and flatten out as we head toward the end of the week.
This will keep the area dry and bring much warmer conditions with
temperatures peaking near record highs on Thursday.

A weak, backdoor cold front will make its way through the area
Friday. This will help cool temperatures down a few degrees, but we
will still remain above normal through the upcoming weekend. Models
continue to disagree in the extended with regards to the UA
pattern. It appears a large upper trough will develop over the Great
Lakes while another one moves onto the West Coast. The models have
different ideas about the eastward progression of the western trough
which will definitely affect our weather going into next week. Have
not included any rain chances attm, but changes will likely be made
to the extended forecast in the coming days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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240
FXUS64 KMAF 142226
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light & variable winds across most of the area overnight will give
way to light return flow after sunrise, under CAVU conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Much calmer conditions this afternoon when compared to yesterday as
high pressure has settled in across the Lone Star state. We
started off very chilly this morning with Marfa dropping down to
30 degrees. Expect a very similar forecast for low temperatures
come Wednesday morning with little change in the sfc pattern. An
upper ridge currently to our west will build over the area
tomorrow and flatten out as we head toward the end of the week.
This will keep the area dry and bring much warmer conditions with
temperatures peaking near record highs on Thursday.

A weak, backdoor cold front will make its way through the area
Friday. This will help cool temperatures down a few degrees, but we
will still remain above normal through the upcoming weekend. Models
continue to disagree in the extended with regards to the UA
pattern. It appears a large upper trough will develop over the Great
Lakes while another one moves onto the West Coast. The models have
different ideas about the eastward progression of the western trough
which will definitely affect our weather going into next week. Have
not included any rain chances attm, but changes will likely be made
to the extended forecast in the coming days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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500
FXUS64 KMAF 141909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Much calmer conditions this afternoon when compared to yesterday as
high pressure has settled in across the Lone Star state. We
started off very chilly this morning with Marfa dropping down to
30 degrees. Expect a very similar forecast for low temperatures
come Wednesday morning with little change in the sfc pattern. An
upper ridge currently to our west will build over the area
tomorrow and flatten out as we head toward the end of the week.
This will keep the area dry and bring much warmer conditions with
temperatures peaking near record highs on Thursday.

A weak, backdoor cold front will make its way through the area
Friday. This will help cool temperatures down a few degrees, but we
will still remain above normal through the upcoming weekend. Models
continue to disagree in the extended with regards to the UA
pattern. It appears a large upper trough will develop over the Great
Lakes while another one moves onto the West Coast. The models have
different ideas about the eastward progression of the western trough
which will definitely affect our weather going into next week. Have
not included any rain chances attm, but changes will likely be made
to the extended forecast in the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 49  80  50  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              50  84  52  92  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  80  47  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  87  53  92  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           51  83  56  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  73  55  80  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   44  80  49  88  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   34  76  38  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    47  82  51  89  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  81  53  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  82  46  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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564
FXUS64 KMAF 141708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light south winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An amplified upper pattern prevailed across the ConUS this morning,
and contributed much toward parking the cool surface ridge over the
region this morning.  Temperatures were in the mid 30s at Marfa as
of 14/08Z, so will continue with the Freeze Warning for the Marfa
Plateau from 14/10Z until 14/15Z.  The surface ridge will be slow to
exit the region, resulting in slightly below normal high
temperatures today.  Temperatures will warm above normal Wednesday
as a sharp ua trough over the Mississippi River Valley progresses
slowly eastward, and is replaced by an ua ridge.  The flow aloft
will flatten somewhat through late this week, with the nearly zonal
flow aloft Thursday instigating a surface trough developing over/
near the region ahead of a weak cold front.  High temperatures
Thursday are expected to rise near record levels as a low level
thermal ridge will accompany the surface trough.  Precipitation
chances through the week will be nil as moisture will be lacking
through the atmospheric column.

The flow aloft will amplify again into next weekend, with a split
flow pattern developing.  While an ua trough takes shape over the
Great Lakes region Friday, and is regularly reinforced thereafter,
a weak ua trough currently well west of the Baja Peninsula will
gradually be drawn west northwestward and over the southwestern
ConUS.  The ua trough will undercut a semi permanent ua ridge over
the western U.S. and eventually traipse eastward over the region.
Unfortunately, this is well into the extended forecast period and
difficult to forecast.  It could pass overhead by Monday, as some
medium range models suggest, or meander aimlessly west of the region
through mid next week as others portend.  Since there is so much
uncertainty, will not include any appreciable rain chances at this
time.  After the fairly hot temperatures Thursday, a cold front is
expected to move into the area Friday and knock temperatures down to
only a few degrees above normal through the weekend.  Due to the
mentioned ua trough over the Great Lakes, a reinforcing shot of
cooler air will result in near normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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259
FXUS64 KMAF 141106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and winds under 10 mph are
expected the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An amplified upper pattern prevailed across the ConUS this morning,
and contributed much toward parking the cool surface ridge over the
region this morning.  Temperatures were in the mid 30s at Marfa as
of 14/08Z, so will continue with the Freeze Warning for the Marfa
Plateau from 14/10Z until 14/15Z.  The surface ridge will be slow to
exit the region, resulting in slightly below normal high
temperatures today.  Temperatures will warm above normal Wednesday
as a sharp ua trough over the Mississippi River Valley progresses
slowly eastward, and is replaced by an ua ridge.  The flow aloft
will flatten somewhat through late this week, with the nearly zonal
flow aloft Thursday instigating a surface trough developing over/
near the region ahead of a weak cold front.  High temperatures
Thursday are expected to rise near record levels as a low level
thermal ridge will accompany the surface trough.  Precipitation
chances through the week will be nil as moisture will be lacking
through the atmospheric column.

The flow aloft will amplify again into next weekend, with a split
flow pattern developing.  While an ua trough takes shape over the
Great Lakes region Friday, and is regularly reinforced thereafter,
a weak ua trough currently well west of the Baja Peninsula will
gradually be drawn west northwestward and over the southwestern
ConUS.  The ua trough will undercut a semi permanent ua ridge over
the western U.S. and eventually traipse eastward over the region.
Unfortunately, this is well into the extended forecast period and
difficult to forecast.  It could pass overhead by Monday, as some
medium range models suggest, or meander aimlessly west of the region
through mid next week as others portend.  Since there is so much
uncertainty, will not include any appreciable rain chances at this
time.  After the fairly hot temperatures Thursday, a cold front is
expected to move into the area Friday and knock temperatures down to
only a few degrees above normal through the weekend.  Due to the
mentioned ua trough over the Great Lakes, a reinforcing shot of
cooler air will result in near normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

12/67

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285
FXUS64 KMAF 140822
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
322 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An amplified upper pattern prevailed across the ConUS this morning,
and contributed much toward parking the cool surface ridge over the
region this morning.  Temperatures were in the mid 30s at Marfa as
of 14/08Z, so will continue with the Freeze Warning for the Marfa
Plateau from 14/10Z until 14/15Z.  The surface ridge will be slow to
exit the region, resulting in slightly below normal high
temperatures today.  Temperatures will warm above normal Wednesday
as a sharp ua trough over the Mississippi River Valley progresses
slowly eastward, and is replaced by an ua ridge.  The flow aloft
will flatten somewhat through late this week, with the nearly zonal
flow aloft Thursday instigating a surface trough developing over/
near the region ahead of a weak cold front.  High temperatures
Thursday are expected to rise near record levels as a low level
thermal ridge will accompany the surface trough.  Precipitation
chances through the week will be nil as moisture will be lacking
through the atmospheric column.

The flow aloft will amplify again into next weekend, with a split
flow pattern developing.  While an ua trough takes shape over the
Great Lakes region Friday, and is regularly reinforced thereafter,
a weak ua trough currently well west of the Baja Peninsula will
gradually be drawn west northwestward and over the southwestern
ConUS.  The ua trough will undercut a semi permanent ua ridge over
the western U.S. and eventually traipse eastward over the region.
Unfortunately, this is well into the extended forecast period and
difficult to forecast.  It could pass overhead by Monday, as some
medium range models suggest, or meander aimlessly west of the region
through mid next week as others portend.  Since there is so much
uncertainty, will not include any appreciable rain chances at this
time.  After the fairly hot temperatures Thursday, a cold front is
expected to move into the area Friday and knock temperatures down to
only a few degrees above normal through the weekend.  Due to the
mentioned ua trough over the Great Lakes, a reinforcing shot of
cooler air will result in near normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  49  83  52  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              77  50  85  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74  45  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  81  53  88  55  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  50  84  56  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  50  75  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   73  45  81  51  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   71  36  77  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  49  84  53  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  76  50  83  55  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    77  45  85  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

12/67

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027
FXUS64 KMAF 140452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected the
next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions overnight. N-NW winds are in process of
decreasing and btwn 00Z-02Z winds will become mostly less than 5kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Winds have shown a slight decrease over the past couple of hours
and should subside much more after sunset with the loss of
boundary layer mixing and a relaxing surface pressure gradient.
Light winds overnight and dry air will provide optimal conditions
for radiational cooling with the Marfa Plateau nearing or dropping
just below freezing tonight. Have gone ahead and upgraded the
watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight so precautions should be
made to protect tender vegetation and animals.

An upper level ridge will move east into the plains and dampen by
mid week bringing a more zonal upper flow and warmer temperatures.
A weak upper trough rounding the crest of the ridge will push a
weak front south into the CWA on Friday bringing a little relief to
the above normal temperatures on Friday. This front will
definitely be dry with all upper support well removed to the
north, but another trough will move into the desert southwest over
the weekend which may bring some rain chances late Sunday or
Monday. Will not introduce PoPs into the forecast so late in the
period but the GFS and ECMWF are showing a nice moisture return
ahead of the trough which could help create at least some
scattered convection.

Hennig

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  74  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  76  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  78  48  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  79  51  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  78  50  85  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          43  69  49  75  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  73  48  80  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   31  72  34  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    42  75  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  75  50  83  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  78  48  85  /   0   0   0   0


&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

29/10

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219
FXUS64 KMAF 132314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions overnight. N-NW winds are in process of
decreasing and btwn 00Z-02Z winds will become mostly less than 5kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Winds have shown a slight decrease over the past couple of hours
and should subside much more after sunset with the loss of
boundary layer mixing and a relaxing surface pressure gradient.
Light winds overnight and dry air will provide optimal conditions
for radiational cooling with the Marfa Plateau nearing or dropping
just below freezing tonight. Have gone ahead and upgraded the
watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight so precautions should be
made to protect tender vegetation and animals.

An upper level ridge will move east into the plains and dampen by
mid week bringing a more zonal upper flow and warmer temperatures.
A weak upper trough rounding the crest of the ridge will push a
weak front south into the CWA on Friday bringing a little relief to
the above normal temperatures on Friday. This front will
definitely be dry with all upper support well removed to the
north, but another trough will move into the desert southwest over
the weekend which may bring some rain chances late Sunday or
Monday. Will not introduce PoPs into the forecast so late in the
period but the GFS and ECMWF are showing a nice moisture return
ahead of the trough which could help create at least some
scattered convection.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

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667
FXUS64 KMAF 131929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Winds have shown a slight decrease over the past couple of hours
and should subside much more after sunset with the loss of
boundary layer mixing and a relaxing surface pressure gradient.
Light winds overnight and dry air will provide optimal conditions
for radiational cooling with the Marfa Plateau nearing or dropping
just below freezing tonight. Have gone ahead and upgraded the
watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight so precautions should be
made to protect tender vegetation and animals.

An upper level ridge will move east into the plains and dampen by
mid week bringing a more zonal upper flow and warmer temperatures.
A weak upper trough rounding the crest of the ridge will push a
weak front south into the CWA on Friday bringing a litle relief to
the above normal temperatures on Friday. This front will
definitely be dry with all upper support well removed to the
north, but another trough will move into the desert southwest over
the weekend which may bring some rain chances late Sunday or
Monday. Will not introduce PoPs into the forecast so late in the
period but the GFS and ECMWF are showing a nice moisture return
ahead of the trough which could help create at least some
scattered convection.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  74  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  76  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  78  48  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  79  51  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  78  50  85  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          43  69  49  75  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  73  48  80  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   31  72  34  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    42  75  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  75  50  83  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  78  48  85  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

29/10

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042
FXUS64 KMAF 131738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Strong northerly winds will quickly diminish by sunset this
evening. Winds will become light and variable and stay that way
through Tuesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough exiting the Texas Panhandle into
OK, as models forecast 24 hrs ago.  Sfc analysis shows the cold
front in the Lwr Trans Pecos/Big Bend area, w/earlier convection
having diminished to -SHRA, and exiting the area to the east.  As
such, the svr t-storm watch was allowed to expire.  In addition, sfc
obs show that the wind warnings/advisories can be cancelled w/this
morning`s package issuance.

As the sfc ridge moves into the area today, models keep pressure
gradients tight, for brisk northerly flow thru the late afternoon.
This will keep afternoon highs about a cat below normal.  Tonight,
as gradients drop off and under clear skies, West Texas/SE NM will
see the coldest night yet this fall, w/the Marfa Plateau flirting
w/a light freeze Tuesday morning.  As first freezes are fickle,
we`ve gone w/a watch for now, and will let the next shift reevaluate
the situation as later model data allows.

Tuesday, light return flow resumes, and temperatures rebound to near
normal.  Temps continue to climb Wed/Thu, before a dry cold front
moves thru Thursday night/Friday.  Temps try to rebound over the
weekend, but models bring another...stronger front into the region
Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, taking temps back to near normal
Monday, with perhaps a chance of rain.  GFS and ECMWF are similar in
temps, so we`ve used a blend in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WATCH Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Marfa
     Plateau.


&&

$$

29

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607
FXUS64 KMAF 131102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
elevated and gusty out of the north today with an increase in winds
around 15 to 18z.  A decrease in visibility due to the gusty winds
is possible.  Winds will decrease around 00z and become light and
variable tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough exiting the Texas Panhandle into
OK, as models forecast 24 hrs ago.  Sfc analysis shows the cold
front in the Lwr Trans Pecos/Big Bend area, w/earlier convection
having diminished to -SHRA, and exiting the area to the east.  As
such, the svr t-storm watch was allowed to expire.  In addition, sfc
obs show that the wind warnings/advisories can be cancelled w/this
morning`s package issuance.

As the sfc ridge moves into the area today, models keep pressure
gradients tight, for brisk northerly flow thru the late afternoon.
This will keep afternoon highs about a cat below normal.  Tonight,
as gradients drop off and under clear skies, West Texas/SE NM will
see the coldest night yet this fall, w/the Marfa Plateau flirting
w/a light freeze Tuesday morning.  As first freezes are fickle,
we`ve gone w/a watch for now, and will let the next shift reevaluate
the situation as later model data allows.

Tuesday, light return flow resumes, and temperatures rebound to near
normal.  Temps continue to climb Wed/Thu, before a dry cold front
moves thru Thursday night/Friday.  Temps try to rebound over the
weekend, but models bring another...stronger front into the region
Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, taking temps back to near normal
Monday, with perhaps a chance of rain.  GFS and ECMWF are similar in
temps, so we`ve used a blend in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     FREEZE WATCH Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Marfa
     Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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