Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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973
FXUS64 KMAF 211100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Intense heating along a surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains will spark more thunderstorms by early to mid
afternoon across the mountains. These storms are expected to move
east into the southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos
region and western Permian Basin of west Texas late this afternoon
and this evening. Confidence was high enough to include TEMPO
groups for VFR conditions in thunderstorms at KCNM, KHOB, KINK
and KPEQ late this afternoon and this evening along with a PROB
30 GROUP placed in the KFST terminal after 00z through 06z Wednesday.
Confidence was not high enough to mention any thunderstorms at the
KMAF terminal. Will continue to monitor throughout the day and
this evening. Light winds will become generally southeast at
10 to 15 mph and gusty by mid to late morning and continue
into this evening.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will persist over the region through the week, and
next weekend, but will vary a little in strength and position.
Convection yesterday, and it`s persistence through much of the night
currently, thrived along a surface trough, mid level theta e axis
and a plume of mid and upper level moisture on the western periphery
of the ua ridge.  These features will be present again today, but
with a plethora of boundaries from convection over the area, and
from convection over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico.
Although temperatures will be a hair less warm today, think we
could see another round of thunderstorms today/tonight as the ua
ridge will be slightly weaker and we`ll have the additional low
level foci.  The lack of shear will preclude severe storms,
however locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds around 50 mph will
be possible with the stronger storms due to a fairly dry subcloud
layer.  Think similar thunderstorms will persist into the Permian
Basin through Wednesday as the ua ridge remains in a somewhat
weakened state, and the theta e axis, and mid to upper level
moisture linger over the region.

On Thursday, the ua ridge center will begin to migrate further west
and stay more over the region into the weekend.  This will likely
relegate any thunderstorms to the higher terrain, and perhaps not
there either, while high temperatures creep over the century mark
in most locations outside the mountains.  There are some signs
the ua ridge will begin to migrate northward this weekend, but
model differences abound, so will not get too cute at this
juncture.  A steady diet of heat, and low to no PoPs will be the
rule these periods.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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