Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 272331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
531 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

00Z TAF issuance
IFR/LIFR cigs continue at all terminals through the night with
periods of ra and fzra. Look for temperatures to slowly rise above
freezing Saturday afternoon with precip becoming all rain at the
terminals except for possible KHOB.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/


Not much change to current forecast. Latest sfc analysis shows the
cold front has made it to the Presidio Valley/Big Bend, a little
faster than models anticipated. To the NW, WV imagery shows the
rex block centered over ern NV, and continues to draw a fetch of
tropical moisture from Hurricane Sandra in SW flow aloft.

Main concerns continue to be frozen precipitation over the next 18
hours or so. Temperatures have more or less stabilized behind the
front, w/ams near saturation. KMAF 12Z RAOB shows a warm nose of
13+C, and forecast soundings do little to alleviate this feature
overnight. As CAA continues encroaching south temps just abv the
sfc should cool enough to set up a FZRA scenario overnight, as has
been expected the past several days. Only limiting factor attm is
sfc temps, which will hover right around freezing overnight for
many locations. Area mesonets show soil temps abv 55F, even in
the warning areas, but observations show FZRA has been
intermittent there for several hours. Model QPFs appear to be a
little overdone, but still could see some significant
accumulations overnight over the nrn tier zones, especially
elevated surfaces, power lines, etc. Therefore, we`ll leave the
warning as is. Further south/west, we`ve opted to merge the watch
with the advisory, mainly to account for light ice accumulations
overnight as freezing temps are reached. Sfc wet-bulb zero is not
forecast to go any further south than the advisory area.

Saturday, temps are forecast to warm just enough to transition
back to RA, but stay well-blo normal under light northerly flow
and overcast skies, w/the atmospheric river continuing to bring
excellent chances of rain into the SE zones. We briefly considered
a possible FFA for this area, but this looks to be spread out
enough temporally to mitigate those concerns. Rain should taper
off Sunday as the upper trough ejects into the upper Midwest.

Return flow resumes Monday, but a weak Pac front Monday afternoon
should keeps temps below normal into the work week. A secondary
trough is forecast to move thru the area Tuesday night/Wednesday,
for a chance of -SHRA southeast, but will otherwise keep temps
below normal into the extended.


NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

     Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Martin...Mitchell...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Scurry.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Winkler.



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