Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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714
FXUS64 KMAF 182350
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
650 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue for the next
24 hours. Lingering wind gusts to around 17-20KT will diminish
this evening, though are expected to return by early afternoon
Sunday at west Texas terminals. Isolated thunderstorms may affect
MAF overnight tonight/early Sunday, with the potential shifting
south to FST Sunday afternoon. However, low probability in both
scenarios precludes TSRA mention in the current TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered near ELP this morning will begin to wander
north on Sunday bringing a decrease in the unseasonably hot
temperatures.  The center of ridge moves far enough northward early
early next week to allow an easterly features to come off the gulf
and track across the region.  After that the ridge builds back
across the region and heat returns.

At the surface a persistent S to SE flow will keep low level
moisture elevated especially across the east where dewpts as high as
70 were observed this morning.  The hottest location yesterday was
Rio Grande Village with a high of 112 degrees and this morning it
was Presidio with a low of 81 degrees.  A heat advisory remains in
effect this afternoon and evening along and west of the Pecos River.
Some locations have already risen past 100 degrees by 19z.  Expect
to have slightly cooler temps tomorrow with highs returning to near
normal Monday... in the low to mid 90s.  For overnight lows staying
warm and leaning toward persistence.

Do have some low storm chances... will leave the isolated pops in
the east tonight and the south tomorrow as models do develop some
qpf.  Have gone ahead and threw in isolated pops over the Davis Mtns
down into northern Presidio and Brewster counties this evening as CU
going up over the mountains.  Rain chances not looking good rest of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  93  70  92 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  98  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         74  96  75  94 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  72  95  71  92 /   0  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  91  68  88 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          66  95  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          60  89  59  86 /  10  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           73  96  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         73  95  73  93 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           74  98  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward.

&&

$$

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