Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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522
FXUS64 KMAF 220927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving upper
low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come into
a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain chances. The
sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM south into the
Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs will be placed,
tapering down to the east. Even though storms will likely move north
they will also propagate east along outflow boundaries. PWATS remain
near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good possibility with these storms
especially as they train over the same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  69  95  70  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  69  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  74 100  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  70  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  65  87  66  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   94  67  93  67  /  30  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  59  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  72  96  73  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  95  74  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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