Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 010519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

See aviation discussion below.


An upper level storm system across Arizona will impact the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours
with increasing winds and clouds. Cloud bases will lower to
around 3500 feet (VFR) between 09 and 12z Sunday at most
terminals with tempo MVFR ceilings expected at KMAF, KINK, and
KFST IN THE 12Z TO 16Z timeframe. Included a PROB30 group for
MVFR conditions in thunderstorms at KFST from 15z to 24z.
Confidence was not high enough to mention precipitation at any of
the other terminals but will continue to monitor. Generally north
to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected
to develop overnight and Sunday morning and then diminish to 10
to 20 mph Sunday afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/


See 00z aviation discussion below.


Variable winds are expected to weaken somewhat and become easterly
to southeasterly between 03z - 06z. Winds will then intensify and
become gusty out of the northeast and north Sunday morning as a
cold front moves into the area. Low ceilings are expected for MAF
around 12z and could affect other terminals such as HOB and INK.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms beginning around 15z
but confidence is not high enough to put into the TAFs at this
time. Model guidance is showing the low clouds to linger into the
afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-


Big Spring                     62  46  66  48 /  30  50  30  10
Carlsbad                       62  44  67  46 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         82  56  70  55 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  71  47  66  50 /  20  50  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  38  60  45 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          55  42  65  44 /  40  30  10  10
Marfa                          72  41  64  40 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  48  66  47 /  40  40  30  10
Odessa                         61  45  66  48 /  40  40  30  10
Wink                           66  47  70  50 /  20  40  20  10


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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