Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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041
FXUS64 KMAF 271721
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light westerly winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Mid and high cloud will decrease today as moisture at these levels
heads into an upper ridge axis over the region.  Pretty good heating
will occur across the forecast area with temperatures rising a good
10 to 15 degrees above normal.  The same appears to be on tap
Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the region, except highs
could be closer to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  A shortwave
trough will translate southeastward through the northern/central
U.S. Plains Wednesday, and send a cold front south into the area
Thursday.  We should see temperatures closer to seasonal norms,
especially as mid and high cloud begin to increase ahead of a sharp
upper trough off the California coast/Baja Peninsula.

A cool surface high will become entrenched over the forecast area
Thursday night while copious amounts of mid and upper level moisture
stream northeastward over the region ahead of the mentioned ua
trough.  A series of mid level shortwave troughs will move over the
region ahead of the ua trough, and along with the RRQ of a 90kt h25
jet, promote large scale ascent above the cool surface airmass.  No
instability is indicated above the boundary layer, and mid level
lapse rates are paltry, so do not think we will see any convection.
However, rain will become widespread over the area, then last
through the day Friday before tapering off somewhat Friday night/
Saturday morning as the best moisture shifts east of the area.
Models bring precipitable water values to near 1 inch across the
forecast area, which is 2 standard deviations above normal!
Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in 1 to 2 inches amounts in
a few locations, and could lead to minor flooding problems.
Although the air through the atmospheric column may be cold enough
to support some snowfall in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains Friday and Friday night, think the rainfall rates
will be great enough to overwhelm cooler surface temperatures and
keep readings above freezing.  Therefore, will carry only negligible
snowfall amounts in those areas.

The upper trough could linger over Mexico into early next week.
Models diverge on it`s movement so have cloven a path down the
middle.  This entails another cold front moving into the area
Sunday, along with a slight chance of mainly rain.  Will keep
temperatures near normal through the rest of the forecast period
and have little to no chance of precipitation after Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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