Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
778
FXUS64 KMAF 172337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will prevail at area terminals with the
exception of FST at the start of the TAF period. Gusts should
quickly die down after sunset as the boundary layer decouples and
should remain westerly overnight, with veering to a more northerly
component throughout the day Thursday. VFR conditions should prevail
with a mid-level ceiling becoming established tomorrow morning.
Forecast models hint at the possibility of a small window of IFR
ceilings at MAF and INK tomorrow around sunrise but confidence is
low and have decided to omit from this TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.