Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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609
FXUS64 KMAF 291945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the southern
CONUS, pinched in two by a sort of col over Texas as an upper
trough moves into the MS Valley.  This is giving a break to the warm
temps of late in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. However,
things should remain above-normal into the extended, with KMAF on
day 26 of its 38-day climatological maximum.  Over the next few
days, the col is forecast to dissipate, and the upper ridge develop
back into Texas, leading to a gradual upward tick in highs each day.
By Tuesday, triple-digit afternoon temps may develop out of the
Pecos Rvr Valley and onto the Plains, and then level out into the
extended.

As for rain prospects, the H85 theta-e ridge lies across the SE half
of the CWA, and will be the focus of convection this afternoon and
tonight.  12Z KMAF RAOB suggests more of the same type of convection
that has occurred over the last few days--high-based, gusty
outflows, and a little rain to go w/it.  In addition to the theta-e
ridge south, loop of area radars show several boundaries knocking
about to the north, w/convection trying to develop along some of
them.  For these reasons, at least isolated convection cannot be
ruled out either south or north thru tonight.  After today, models
generally reorient the richer theta-e to the higher terrain. Under
the ridge, w/diurnal convection establishing new boundaries daily,
the scenario will likely remain low-pop, broad areal
coverage, changing daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  99  72  98 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       67  94  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  94  72  98 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  90  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          64  92  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          60  88  59  88 /  20  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  96  71  97 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         69  95  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           69  96  72  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44

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