Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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221
FXUS64 KMAF 211755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through late this evening.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening, though
uncertainties in exact timing/location preclude mention in
current TAFS. Radar trends will continue to be monitored for
potential TSRA inclusion, with hail, gusty winds, and temporary
visibility reductions in heavy rain possible. Low ceilings look to
return overnight for all but CNM and PEQ, thus have included low-
end MVFR/IFR mention for affected terminals. Southeast winds will
continue through the period, with CNM and PEQ seeing a shift to
the west after 22/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper level ridge over the area with a closed low over the
OR/CA region.  This low will slowly wobble NE but additional lobes
will rotate down behind it.  This will put the region into SW flow
aloft and may bring shortwaves into the area.

After a couple cool days warm temperatures have returned with
readings running above normal and into the 90s.  With no cold fronts
expected for the coming week temperatures should be fairly
consistent day to day.  Highs for most of next weeks look above
normal and in the 90s with overnight lows staying on the warm side.

This morning low level moisture high with dewpts in the 60s for most
of the area.  Low clouds have spread up the Trans Pecos region and
across much of the Permian Basin as a SE flow keeps dewpts elevated.
A surface trough will help sharpen up a dryline today and Sunday
with possible storms along this feature.  CAPE looks fairly high but
shear not great.  Currently have a slight risk today mostly north of
the area... with a slight risk Sunday farther back to the west now
reaching the TX/NM border.  Day3 slight risk fairly similar for
eastern CWA.  Some of these storms could become severe with large
hail and damaging wind the main concerns.  Rain chances the rest of
the week do not look great but carrying some low pops in the
extended mainly for the eastern CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  68  87  67 /  10  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         90  72  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  92  66 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  64  87  58 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          87  53  88  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  89  68 /  20  30  30  20
Odessa                         91  68  91  66 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           93  67  92  61 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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