Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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896
FXUS64 KMAF 301111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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