Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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482
FXUS64 KMAF 170613
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
113 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the timing of a
cold front along with its associated low clouds and TSRA. Currently
have some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area and
could see a lightning strike or two for the next few hours. Did not
include mention of TSRA but will continue to monitor current trends
and amend if needed.

Latest model data has come in later with the arrival of the front
and decided to go ahead and shift timing in the TAFs to late
afternoon/early evening time frame. With the arrival of the front,
flight conditions look to deteriorate as low cigs develop and
thunderstorm chances increase significantly toward the end of this
TAF period. Will continue to refine the forecast in subsequent TAF
issuances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1019 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to expire the Red Flag Warning.

DISCUSSION...

Wind speeds have decreased and relative humidities have increased
so the Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire. Conditions
overnight are expected to remain above red flag criteria.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 113 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A large upper low over the Intermountain West today will drop
southward to AZ by Wednesday.  This low will result in an increase
in the rain chances across the area.  This low will open up into a
trough and move across the area Thursday.  As it does another upper
trough will move ashore the NW Coast as the active pattern continues.

After an unseasonably warm day today temps will be cooler tomorrow
through Thursday as a cold front moves through.  There is some
timing difference between models with the front but expect it will
be in early enough to affect afternoon highs Tuesday.  Will continue
the High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Tuesday night as high
wind remains possible as the front squeezes through.  Looks to be
unusually cool for May with highs in the 60s and 70s Wednesday as
skies remain cloudy... the wind remains out of the east... and a
good chance of rain.

As far as rain chances have the eastern edge of the CWA in a
marginal risk today/tonight for strong storms... with another
marginal risk for much of the area Tuesday as a front passes through
the area.  Wednesday into Thursday looks like the best chance of
rain for the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are currently developing across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains as 20 foot winds increase to 20 mph
or greater and rh/s drop to 15 percent or less in a few locations. These
conditions are expected to continue to develop the remainder of this afternoon
in these areas through mid evening as potent westerly flow continues through the
column behind a dryline. Conditions will improve by mid evening as the dryline
retreats to the west Texas, eastern New Mexico border with diminishing winds
and higher rh/s due to nocturnal cooling. Rh recovery tonight is expected to
be fair west of the dryline and excellent east.

Fire weather concerns are expected to ease Tuesday through Thursday due to cooling
and moistening expected behind a cold front. In addition there will also be a
significant increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms
these days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  64  56  71 /  50  50  60  50
Carlsbad                       55  63  52  75 /  40  40  50  30
Dryden                         67  77  63  80 /  50  50  60  50
Fort Stockton                  58  70  57  76 /  50  50  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 46  58  49  71 /  40  30  50  20
Hobbs                          52  62  52  70 /  50  40  60  40
Marfa                          50  73  50  74 /  40  40  60  30
Midland Intl Airport           56  66  56  74 /  50  50  60  40
Odessa                         55  66  55  73 /  50  50  60  40
Wink                           58  69  56  77 /  50  40  60  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/10/27

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