Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 132254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

00Z TAF issuance.

Currently have VFR condition at all but MAF, where MVFR cigs prevail
this evening. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate
overnight with IFR/LIFR cigs/vis possible through mid morning
Friday. Expected VFR to return to all terminals by mid day.
Otherwise, light easterly winds overnight becoming SE around 10kt
Friday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/

Updated lows first period.

A pocket of cool air sitting over the Permian Basin... knocked
down lows tonight closer to dewpts.  No other changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/


Quite a change today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front, as the
combination of cloudcover and cold air advection has resulted in
many locations struggling to make it out of the 50s and lower 60s,
with the exception of southern zones where temperatures this
afternoon are in the 70s and lower 80s. Most of the rainfall today
has been in the form of light drizzle and showers, though across
portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin, a few isolated thunderstorms developed. The expectation
for the rest of this afternoon and evening is for precipitation to
gradually wane and move eastward as the 300mb jet max lifts toward
the Central Plains and the midlevel shortwave translates toward
the Red River Valley. However, lingering showers and an isolated
thunderstorm or two will remain possible overnight, mainly across
the eastern Permian Basin. The main concern overnight is the
potential for patchy dense fog across Southeast New Mexico, the
Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin due to light winds and ample
boundary layer moisture. Fog that develops overnight may not burn
off until at least mid-morning on Friday, thus anyone traveling
overnight or Friday morning will need to be prepared for potential
delays due to reduced visibility.

On Friday, winds will veer to the south and increase, marking an
end to our brief cool down, and the start of a significant
warming trend. Highs tomorrow are expected to climb back into the
80s across most of the area, with a few 90s possible in the Rio
Grande Valley, once again above normal for this time of year.
Saturday and Sunday, zonal flow aloft will slowly transition to
southwesterly as an upper high builds over Texas, with very warm
and dry conditions expected. The southwesterly flow aloft as well
as southwesterly downslope winds at the surface could drive
temperatures into the upper 80s to middle 90s on both Saturday
and Sunday. Given Midland`s record high temperature Saturday is 94
(set in 1962), and on Sunday is 92 (set in 2014), record breaking
heat is certainly possible. The hot temperatures will linger into
early next week, however, the upper high will begin to slide off
toward the southeastern CONUS east in response to a deepening
longwave trough by early Tuesday. As this trough translates
eastward, a cold front is progged to move through the region
Tuesday afternoon, with much cooler weather expected Wednesday and
Thursday as northeasterly flow aloft develops in response to the
deepening of the aforementioned trough over the eastern CONUS and
high amplitude ridge across the west. Precipitation chances
through the extended remain slim-to-none.


Big Spring                     52  84  66  92 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  85  56  93 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  87  65  93 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  59  87  65  95 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  80  62  86 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  81  57  89 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          50  83  51  87 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  85  66  92 /  30  10   0   0
Odessa                         52  84  66  92 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           53  86  64  95 /  20   0   0   0





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