Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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633
FXUS64 KMAF 251931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Saturday...little change in the
sensible weather for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the
next week to 10 days with hot and muggy weather continuing.

The ridge centered in the Southern Plains will get nudged slightly
east as a trough moves into the Pacific NW. The trough will ride
over the ridge and deepen in the Eastern US. This will push the
ridge west into the Four Corners area by the middle/end of the
upcoming work week. Another trough off the west coast will nudge
the ridge center back east over the Southern Plains next weekend.

With a surface trough and mid level thetae ridge along the Davis
and Guadalupe Mtns...and intense afternoon heating...the threat of
convection during the aftn/evening remains over the Mountains and
adjacent Plains thru the weekend and into next week. Further east
in the Plains the chance of convection will significantly less.
With a 40 degree dew pt depression there will be the threat of
gusty winds with the convection along with locally heavy rain. Not
much of a hail threat with the 12Z MAF RAOB showing H7 temps near
15C and H5 temps near -5C.

Temps into next week will be near the 100 degree mark in the
Plains...80s/90s in the Mtns...and 100-105 in the Trans Pecos and
Rio Grand Valleys. Any day to day changes will be subtle. There
might be a few degrees of cooling the middle of next week as the
ridge becomes centered over the Four Corners area.

Strobin
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75 101  76 100  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    72 102  71 102  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 102  75 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               75 101  76 100  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  94  69  93  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                       71  99  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       63  93  64  92  /  30  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75 101  75 100  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      76 101  77  99  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        77 105  78 103  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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