Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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552
FXUS64 KMAF 061804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

All terminals are expected to remain VFR at least through this
evening, with scattered diurnal cumulus mainly affecting KINK,
KMAF, and KFST this afternoon. While there exists the potential
for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, exact
timing/location uncertainty precludes mention in the current TAFs.
KMAF and KFST have the best chance to see storms, and with any
storm that occurs, gusty wind and visibility reductions in heavy
rain would be expected. Otherwise, breezy south to southeast
winds today will become southwesterly across all TAF sites by
Thursday morning, with some fog/low ceiling development possible
late tonight/early Thursday, but not mentioned at this time.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the western half of the conus with
westerly to southwesterly flow over the CWA.  Upper lift will
increase ahead of this trough today as indicated by the NAM80 500
omega values over the Permian Basin.  A dryline will be present
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos today.  CAPE values
according to the NAM12 will be 2000 to 3000+ J/Kg along and east of
the dryline this afternoon.  Bulk shear vectors will be good with
the best values being across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level lapse
rates will be marginal with the highest values across the Lower
Trans Pecos.  Given these conditions, storms may develop beginning
this afternoon along and east of the dryline with some storms
possibly becoming severe.  The main threats with these storms will
be locally heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds.  Temperatures
today are expected to be near normal with many places across the
area in the mid 80s.

The dryline is expected to progress further eastward Thursday
afternoon to the Western Low Rolling Plains, so storm chances will
shift eastward as well.  Due to southwest surface winds across most
of the area, temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up
slightly from the previous day.  Friday is expected to be very
similar to Thursday with the dryline across the far eastern CWA.
The previously mentioned upper trough will move over New Mexico on
Saturday with thunderstorms possible across the Permian Basin and
the Lower Trans Pecos.  Storm chances will remain across these same
areas on Sunday as the upper trough continues to move over the
region.  A cold front associated with this trough is expected to
move into the CWA on Monday and showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible along this front.  Temperatures are only expected to
cool into the mid to upper 70s behind this front.  The area will
once again be under southwest flow aloft on Tuesday with shortwaves
moving over the area.  Storms will remain possible across a portion
of the CWA through the middle of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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