Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 200441

1041 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2015


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.



A southwesterly low level jet will reside mainly over west central
Texas tonight, but will keep winds up a little at KMAF through at
least 20/08Z, and perhaps be gusty at times.  In addition, KCNM
could see surface winds increase for a few hours as westerly low
level winds increase in the 20/06Z to 20/10Z timeframe.  Winds
should drop to around 10kt or less thereafter and stay that way
through 20/15Z.  Light fog may form from KMAF eastward between
20/12Z and 20/15Z, but there appears to be enough mixing to
prevent MVFR visibility so will not make a mention at KMAF for
now.  Southwest to west winds will increase and become gusty again
this afternoon, but VFR conditions will prevail areawide.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2015/

Swift west to northwest flow aloft is expected through Saturday
resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Surface
lee trough will become a fixture and intensify in this flow.
Breezy to windy conditions look likely in the mountains and
adjacent plains, especially Friday. Have issued a High Wind Watch
for the Guadalupe Pass Friday and Friday evening as mid level
westerly winds funnel through that region.

A very extensive and broad upper level trough is forecast
to develop across much of the nation by later this weekend
and this feature will push much colder air into the forecast
area by Sunday and Monday. In addition an overrunning pattern
aided by a strong jet aloft is expected to develop and could
result in light freezing and or frozen precipitation late
Sunday through Monday across a significant portion of west
Texas and the southeast New Mexico Plains, For now have
mentioned this possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
but later shifts will need to monitor for possible upgrade.

Behind this system, moderating but below normal temperatures
are expected next Tuesday through Thursday. Will keep
this portion of the extended dry for now.

Upper ridging over the wrn CONUS will dampen over the next 24-36
hrs, w/nw flow aloft transitioning to zonal.  A leeside sfc trough
currently over SE CO will sink se into the Texas Panhandle
overnight, veering sfc flow over West Texas and SE NM to west.
Westerly downslope 20ft winds and unseasonably-warm temperatures
Friday afternoon will result in critical RH`s over all of SE NM and
most of West Texas.  In the Guadalupes, forecast soundings mix out
to around 725mb, where models are carrying winds NW 40+ kts Friday
afternoon.  This will result in RFTIs of 5-6 (high) in and adjacent
to the Guadalupes.  Combined w/high to very high forecast fire
danger, critical fire wx conditions will be possible in the
Guadalupes and adjacent areas south Friday afternoon.  How far south
remains in question, so we`re going with a Fire Wx Watch this
forecast, and will let the mid shift make the call on whether to
upgrade some or all of it to a warning.


NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.




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