Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 302317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015


Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions with light southeasterly winds will prevail through
the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/


Temperatures to remain very warm through the end of this week with
some relief possible early next week.

An upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico this afternoon
extends into our region and has brought hot and dry conditions over
the past week. While the ridge will weaken significantly later this
week as an upper level trough digs over the Great Basin, don`t
expect much change in our weather. Warm mid level temperatures and
southerly winds will keep highs well above normal for early October.
No records are in the forecast, but both high and low temperatures
will average 5-10 degrees above normal. Subsidence from the ridge
along with dry air at the surface will keep any convection from
forming through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, increasing
moisture may combine with orographic lift to produce a few storms in
the Davis Mountains.

The previously mentioned upper level trough will dampen and another
strong wave will dig south along the West Coast this weekend. This
trough will edge a little closer to the area. Rain chances will
increase with this system, but only slightly. A front is expected to
move south through the TX Panhandle this weekend. Unfortunately,the
newest model runs show the front stalling to our north. This means
temperatures will only cool due to clouds and some precipitation.
Models diverge early next week with the progression of upper trough
to our west so won`t make many changes to the extended for now.





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