Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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831
FXUS64 KMAF 250211
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
911 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Have updated the forecast for the expiration of the Red Flag
Warning in southeast New Mexico south through the Davis Mountains.
Critical fire weather conditions have ended across these areas
this evening however another afternoon of critical fire weather
conditions will follow Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Winds are still mostly 15-20kt sustained at TAF sites, stronger
at INK and are expected to decrease to around 10kts between 01Z-
02Z. Water vapor indicates some "waves" INVOF GDP Mtns and light
low flying aircraft may experience severe turbulence and should
avoid flying near the mtns. Otherwise VFR overnight with a repeat
ahead for Mon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
West winds will continue across the area the next several days
keeping it breezy, dry, and warm. Winds will be briefly strong in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon but will not issue a warning due to it`s isolated and
brief nature. Tuesday will be different as an upper level low
moves into the Central Plains. The jet stream wrapping around the
southern periphery of the low will be favorably positioned to
bring stronger and more widespread winds to the Guadalupe
Mountains and thus have continued the High Wind Watch. Some of
these winds will mix into the lower elevations in southeastern New
Mexico and an advisory may be needed for this area in the next 24
to 36 hours.

Models were originally developing a dryline in the central Permian
Basin on Tuesday with the low developing storms in the eastern
Permian Basin. It now appears the dryline will be in the eastern
Permian Basin and unfortunately any precipitation will likely be
east of our CWA. Thursday another low moves into the western U.S.
increasing moisture and instability and giving most locations east
of the Pecos River a chance for rain. Models are not consistent
with the track of the upper low so confidence is not high in the
rain forecast for late in the week, but cities in the east will
have a better chance than cities farther west.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Today began what looks like several fire weather days for the area.
Temperatures have warmed quickly into the 80`s this afternoon and
stronger winds continue to mix down across the western half of the
region. The current Red Flag Warning looks good and will not make
any changes. Very similar conditions are expected tomorrow as
another upper trough develops over the Four Corners. Winds on
Monday look slightly less than today, but still gusty in the
Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains. Will upgrade the watch to a
warning for SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains for tomorrow. The
upper trough will eject out onto the Plains Tuesday leading to more
fire weather concerns across the area. A dryline will surge east
with most of the region seeing critical rh`s by early afternoon.
Stronger winds will also mix down, especially over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains. A Fire Weather Watch will likely be
needed for these areas, if not further east if drying trends
continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  89  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  90  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  94  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  59  94  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  80  52  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  86  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          45  83  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  92  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         60  91  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           58  95  57  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Monday for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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