Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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374
FXUS64 KMAF 302307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail into Friday. Winds will increase out
of the southwest Friday afternoon with gusts to near 40 kts
possible at KCNM and lesser further east. Blowing dust is also
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level storm system in the Intermountain west will be the
main weather maker through the weekend. Ahead of the system surface
lee troughing, low level thermal ridging has developed and will
continue to produce mainly above normal temperatures through Saturday.
Breezy to very windy conditions are expected to develop Friday across
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas as the flow through the
column increases. As the upper low approaches Friday afternoon high
winds are likely in the Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Warning has
been issued for that location late Friday morning through mid Friday
evening.

A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday
just ahead of the slow moving upper low in New Mexico. High temperatures
will cool considerably behind the front but should still remain above
normal.

The upper low will approach west Texas Saturday night and Sunday
in tandem with a northern stream cold front. The interaction of
lift associated with the upper low with the surface cold front
will produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across
the eastern Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos
of west Texas in the best forcing and moisture. Temperatures
Sunday behind the front are expected to be below normal.

Yet another Pacific upper low is forecast to track toward the
Plains and Mississippi Valley next Monday through Wednesday.
Guidance continues to be consistent taking the system on a
much more northerly track. Dry with above normal temperature are
expected with this track Monday and Tuesday with dry and below
to near normal temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday behind
the system.

FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions are coming together for potentially moderate to high
end critical fire wx Fri PM across the west. A sharp low level
thermal ridge will build north from Trans Pecos into SE NM with
temps around 10 degrees above normal. Low level wind fields of
25-35kts and deep mixing will result in surface winds well above
20 mph at times. Other than in the mtns the strongest winds will
probably extend from around Van Horn into the Upper Trans Pecos
and SE NM where a corridor of 25-35 mph sustained winds are
possible. Along with the winds the magnitude of the dry air is
impressive, a large area of 3% RH is possible. There is some
concern about how much fuels will rebound to the dry side.
Currently ERCs are thought to be below the 90th percentile, but
probably above 75th and along the forecast wx there moderate
significant fire potential. As such we have upgrade to a RFW.

There are notable model difference on latest runs, but critical fire
is possible again on Sat, Mon, and Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  88  55  80 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       50  87  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  91  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  73  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  80  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  80  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  88  53  78 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         53  86  56  77 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           50  89  49  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

29
746
FXUS64 KMAF 301938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level storm system in the Intermountain west will be the
main weather maker through the weekend. Ahead of the system surface
lee troughing, low level thermal ridging has developed and will
continue to produce mainly above normal temperatures through Saturday.
Breezy to very windy conditions are expected to develop Friday across
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas as the flow through the
column increases. As the upper low approaches Friday afternoon high
winds are likely in the Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Warning has
been issued for that location late Friday morning through mid Friday
evening.

A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday
just ahead of the slow moving upper low in New Mexico. High temperatures
will cool considerably behind the front but should still remain above
normal.

The upper low will approach west Texas Saturday night and Sunday
in tandem with a northern stream cold front. The interaction of
lift associated with the upper low with the surface cold front
will produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across
the eastern Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos
of west Texas in the best forcing and moisture. Temperatures
Sunday behind the front are expected to be below normal.

Yet another Pacific upper low is forecast to track toward the
Plains and Mississippi Valley next Monday through Wednesday.
Guidance continues to be consistent taking the system on a
much more northerly track. Dry with above normal temperature are
expected with this track Monday and Tuesday with dry and below
to near normal temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday behind
the system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions are coming together for potentially moderate to high
end critical fire wx Fri PM across the west. A sharp low level
thermal ridge will build north from Trans Pecos into SE NM with
temps around 10 degrees above normal. Low level wind fields of
25-35kts and deep mixing will result in surface winds well above
20 mph at times. Other than in the mtns the strongest winds will
probably extend from around Van Horn into the Upper Trans Pecos
and SE NM where a corridor of 25-35 mph sustained winds are
possible. Along with the winds the magnitude of the dry air is
impressive, a large area of 3% RH is possible. There is some
concern about how much fuels will rebound to the dry side.
Currently ERCs are thought to be below the 90th percentile, but
probably above 75th and along the forecast wx there moderate
significant fire potential. As such we have upgrade to a RFW.

There are notable model difference on latest runs, but critical fire
is possible again on Sat, Mon, and Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  88  55  80 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       50  87  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  91  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  73  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  80  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  80  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  88  53  78 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         53  86  56  77 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           50  89  49  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99
384
FXUS64 KMAF 301837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty winds this PM will settle down quickly and become more
southerly mostly less than 10 mph by early evening. Breezy/windy
conditions Fri.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 609 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light and occasionally gusty winds expected the
next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging looks to develop overhead today and with modest
southwest winds returning at the surface, a considerable warmup is
expected today with highs generally in the 80s. Southwest flow will
quickly develop Friday just ahead of our next storm system.
Southwest winds will increase at the surface as this system
approaches and high temperatures look to push 90 across many areas.
High winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and a High Wind
Watch remains for this area. In addition, could see sustained winds
reach Advisory criteria across the adjacent plains of Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas. Otherwise, critically low dew points and
gusty winds Friday may cause some problems for fire weather through
the afternoon hours. Please see the fire weather discussion below
for more details.

As southwest winds dominate the region today and tomorrow, don`t see
much in the way for moisture return. However, there may be a brief
window for a bit of moisture to creep into the far eastern zones
Friday evening as the dryline moves west ever so slightly. We could
have some weak upper forcing available from the approaching upper
low so there may be potential for one or two late night
thunderstorms. For now, confidence is too low to mention in the
forecast but will continue to monitor the possibility. Saturday
morning, a Pacific front will quickly sweep east through the region,
shunting any moisture to the east and bringing slightly cooler air
to the CWA. Sunday will be cooler still as a cold front pushes south
late Saturday night. A few models show a little bit of moisture
returning across eastern zones ahead of the front with precip
developing as the front moves through Sunday.

Beyond this weekend, southwest winds are quick to return at the
surface under a brief period of upper ridging. As a result, warm and
dry conditions can be expected. Otherwise, another upper low looks
to swing through the Central Plains Tuesday bringing windy
conditions back to the region Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...
One upper level low leaves and another approaches causing the fire
weather threat to increase once again. Strong winds ahead of the
low will cause Critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe
Mountains today which will spread east on Friday afternoon. Have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains today
into a Red Flag Warning and expanded the Fire Weather Watch on
Friday east to encompass Dawson, Gaines, and Andrews counties.
Winds will diminish some on Saturday as the low moves overhead,
decreasing the fire weather threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  88  54  79 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       50  86  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  91  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  91  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  74  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  82  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  82  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  89  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  88  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           50  89  49  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
608
FXUS64 KMAF 301109
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light and occasionally gusty winds expected the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging looks to develop overhead today and with modest
southwest winds returning at the surface, a considerable warmup is
expected today with highs generally in the 80s. Southwest flow will
quickly develop Friday just ahead of our next storm system.
Southwest winds will increase at the surface as this system
approaches and high temperatures look to push 90 across many areas.
High winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and a High Wind
Watch remains for this area. In addition, could see sustained winds
reach Advisory criteria across the adjacent plains of Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas. Otherwise, critically low dew points and
gusty winds Friday may cause some problems for fire weather through
the afternoon hours. Please see the fire weather discussion below
for more details.

As southwest winds dominate the region today and tomorrow, don`t see
much in the way for moisture return. However, there may be a brief
window for a bit of moisture to creep into the far eastern zones
Friday evening as the dryline moves west ever so slightly. We could
have some weak upper forcing available from the approaching upper
low so there may be potential for one or two late night
thunderstorms. For now, confidence is too low to mention in the
forecast but will continue to monitor the possibility. Saturday
morning, a Pacific front will quickly sweep east through the region,
shunting any moisture to the east and bringing slightly cooler air
to the CWA. Sunday will be cooler still as a cold front pushes south
late Saturday night. A few models show a little bit of moisture
returning across eastern zones ahead of the front with precip
developing as the front moves through Sunday.

Beyond this weekend, southwest winds are quick to return at the
surface under a brief period of upper ridging. As a result, warm and
dry conditions can be expected. Otherwise, another upper low looks
to swing through the Central Plains Tuesday bringing windy
conditions back to the region Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...
One upper level low leaves and another approaches causing the fire
weather threat to increase once again. Strong winds ahead of the
low will cause Critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe
Mountains today which will spread east on Friday afternoon. Have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains today
into a Red Flag Warning and expanded the Fire Weather Watch on
Friday east to encompass Dawson, Gaines, and Andrews counties.
Winds will diminish some on Saturday as the low moves overhead,
decreasing the fire weather threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  53  88  54 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       84  50  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 73  52  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  37  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  53  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         82  53  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           84  50  89  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
558
FXUS64 KMAF 300818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
318 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging looks to develop overhead today and with modest
southwest winds returning at the surface, a considerable warmup is
expected today with highs generally in the 80s. Southwest flow will
quickly develop Friday just ahead of our next storm system.
Southwest winds will increase at the surface as this system
approaches and high temperatures look to push 90 across many areas.
High winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and a High Wind
Watch remains for this area. In addition, could see sustained winds
reach Advisory criteria across the adjacent plains of Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas. Otherwise, critically low dew points and
gusty winds Friday may cause some problems for fire weather through
the afternoon hours. Please see the fire weather discussion below
for more details.

As southwest winds dominate the region today and tomorrow, don`t see
much in the way for moisture return. However, there may be a brief
window for a bit of moisture to creep into the far eastern zones
Friday evening as the dryline moves west ever so slightly. We could
have some weak upper forcing available from the approaching upper
low so there may be potential for one or two late night
thunderstorms. For now, confidence is too low to mention in the
forecast but will continue to monitor the possibility. Saturday
morning, a Pacific front will quickly sweep east through the region,
shunting any moisture to the east and bringing slightly cooler air
to the CWA. Sunday will be cooler still as a cold front pushes south
late Saturday night. A few models show a little bit of moisture
returning across eastern zones ahead of the front with precip
developing as the front moves through Sunday.

Beyond this weekend, southwest winds are quick to return at the
surface under a brief period of upper ridging. As a result, warm and
dry conditions can be expected. Otherwise, another upper low looks
to swing through the Central Plains Tuesday bringing windy
conditions back to the region Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
One upper level low leaves and another approaches causing the fire
weather threat to increase once again. Strong winds ahead of the
low will cause Critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe
Mountains today which will spread east on Friday afternoon. Have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains today
into a Red Flag Warning and expanded the Fire Weather Watch on
Friday east to encompass Dawson, Gaines, and Andrews counties.
Winds will diminish some on Saturday as the low moves overhead,
decreasing the fire weather threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  53  88  54 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       84  50  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 73  52  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  37  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  53  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         82  53  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           84  50  89  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/27
067
FXUS64 KMAF 300518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with light and occasionally gusty west winds this
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

Looks like above normal temperatures are in the offing Thursday
and Friday as surface lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
develop ahead of the next Pacific upper level storm system. Breezy
conditions will develop Thursday afternoon in the Guadalupe
Mountains with breezy to very windy conditions expected to develop
Friday across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas. As the
upper low approaches Friday afternoon high winds will be possible
in the Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Watch has been issued for
that location Friday afternoon.

A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday
just ahead of the slow moving upper low. High temperatures will
cool considerably behind the front but should still remain above
normal.

The upper low will approach west Texas Saturday night and Sunday
in tandem with a northern stream cold front. The interaction of
lift associated with the upper low with the surface cold front
will produce a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across west Texas. Temperatures Sunday behind the front are
expected to be below normal.

Yet another Pacific upper low is forecast to track toward the
plains next Monday and Tuesday. This system looks like it will
take a more northern track with above normal temperatures and
windy conditions expected and no precipitation.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will return to the area Thursday/Friday. Thursday
critical conditions will be confined to the GDP Mtns, but expand
to include SE NM and most of the Trans Pecos Friday when the driest
(3% RH) and windiest conditions are expected. Forecast fuel conditions,
as seen thru the ERC-G, will be into the 90th percentile, the driest
of the fire season. There`s a chance that the watch for Friday may
need to be expanded east as significant fire potential will correspondingly
increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  89  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  88  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  92  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  90  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  74  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  81  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  81  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  88  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  87  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10
189
FXUS64 KMAF 292253
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low end VFR clouds will gradually dissipate through 30/03Z, along
with light showers associated with same. Northerly winds will also
be on the decrease during the same time frame. VFR conditions will
prevail tonight and Thursday, although southwest to west winds
will increase and become gusty between 30/16Z to 30/19Z at all
area terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

Looks like above normal temperatures are in the offing Thursday
and Friday as surface lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
develop ahead of the next Pacific upper level storm system. Breezy
conditions will develop Thursday afternoon in the Guadalupe
Mountains with breezy to very windy conditions expected to develop
Friday across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas. As the
upper low approaches Friday afternoon high winds will be possible
in the Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Watch has been issued for
that location Friday afternoon.

A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday
just ahead of the slow moving upper low. High temperatures will
cool considerably behind the front but should still remain above
normal.

The upper low will approach west Texas Saturday night and Sunday
in tandem with a northern stream cold front. The interaction of
lift associated with the upper low with the surface cold front
will produce a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across west Texas. Temperatures Sunday behind the front are
expected to be below normal.

Yet another Pacific upper low is forecast to track toward the
plains next Monday and Tuesday. This system looks like it will
take a more northern track with above normal temperatures and
windy conditions expected and no precipitation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will return to the area Thursday/Friday. Thursday
critical conditions will be confined to the GDP Mtns, but expand
to include SE NM and most of the Trans Pecos Friday when the driest
(3% RH) and windiest conditions are expected. Forecast fuel conditions,
as seen thru the ERC-G, will be into the 90th percentile, the driest
of the fire season. There`s a chance that the watch for Friday may
need to be expanded east as significant fire potential will correspondingly
increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  86  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  86  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  74  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  75  35  81 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  82  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  84  48  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
956
FXUS64 KMAF 291913
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like above normal temperatures are in the offing Thursday
and Friday as surface lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
develop ahead of the next Pacific upper level storm system.
Breezy conditions will develop Thursday afternoon in the Guadalupe
Mountains with breezy to very windy conditions expected to
develop Friday across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas.
As the upper low approaches Friday afternoon high winds will be
possible in the Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Watch has been
issued for that location Friday afternoon.

A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday
just ahead of the slow moving upper low. High temperatures will
cool considerably behind the front but should still remain above
normal.

The upper low will approach west Texas Saturday night and Sunday
in tandem with a northern stream cold front. The interaction of
lift associated with the upper low with the surface cold front
will produce a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across west Texas. Temperatures Sunday behind the front are
expected to be below normal.

Yet another Pacific upper low is forecast to track toward the
plains next Monday and Tuesday. This system looks like it will
take a more northern track with above normal temperatures and
windy conditions expected and no precipitation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx will return to the area Thursday/Friday. Thursday
critical conditions will be confined to the GDP Mtns, but expand
to include SE NM and most of the Trans Pecos Friday when the driest
(3% RH) and windiest conditions are expected. Forecast fuel conditions,
as seen thru the ERC-G, will be into the 90th percentile, the driest
of the fire season. There`s a chance that the watch for Friday may
need to be expanded east as significant fire potential will correspondingly
increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  86  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  86  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  74  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  75  35  81 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  82  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  84  48  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99
699
FXUS64 KMAF 291734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS at HOB will lift by late afternoon and clouds bases
elsewhere will remain mostly above 3KFT AGL. Otherwise windy
conditions will abate by 01Z with westerly wind less than 10kts
thru the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. West winds will
shift from the northwest and gust to 20-30kts before 18Z,
continuing through 00Z before subsiding and backing from the west
once again.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday...a much calmer day is
in store for West Texas/Southeast New Mexico.

It appears based on sfc obs and radar data that last evenings
severe wx was caused by a retreating dry line (pushed west by
outflow from convection to the east) interacting with a mid level
shortwave.

Satl imagery and KMAF radar is showing that the center of the
upper low is just WSW of Lubbock. As the low moves east and the
trough axis passes across there could be some convection across
the Guadalupe Mtns...Northern Eddy/Lea Counties...and the Northern
Permian Basin. No severe wx is expected as temps will be
significantly cooler (below normal for a change) which would cut
down on the instability. It will be breezy today...but winds
should stay below Advisory criteria.

Ridging will move over the Southern Plains ahead of the next
system which is in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in dry
weather thru the remainder of the week along with rapidly warming
temps...up to 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday. Winds will be
breezy...especially Friday but will remain below High Wind and
Advisory criteria.

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into New Mexico
Saturday...then move slowly east on Sunday. Saturday looks to be
warm and dry. Moist Gulf of Mexico air will be drawn northwest
into Central...and possibly West Texas on Sunday. As of now...and
it is very early...models are hinting at a dryline developing in
the Central Permian Basin Sunday moving east late in the aftn.

Riding will bring warm and dry weather Monday. Yet another Upper
low will move across the South Central Plains next Tuesday and
Wednesday. This system looks like it will be a wind producer.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move through the area today
bringing cooler temperatures to the area. That combined with rain
across much of the Permian Basin has alleviated the fire weather
threat for today. One location that may see near critical or low
end critical fire weather conditions is the Big Bend along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be warmest in the area and did not
see any appreciable rainfall yesterday. Given the forecast
uncertainty, decided not to issue a warning and will opt for a
Fire Danger Statement today for our southernmost CWA.

Increasingly warmer and drier conditions will return to the entire
area Thursday and Friday increasing the fire weather threat. However
winds will generally be below 20 mph except perhaps in Eddy County
which could see low end critical fire weather conditions. We will
continue to monitor this area for a possible watch or warning over
the next 24-48 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  78  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  81  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  82  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  70  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          40  74  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  78  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         46  79  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  81  52  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
552
FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. West winds will
shift from the northwest and gust to 20-30kts before 18Z,
continuing through 00Z before subsiding and backing from the west
once again.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday...a much calmer day is
in store for West Texas/Southeast New Mexico.

It appears based on sfc obs and radar data that last evenings
severe wx was caused by a retreating dry line (pushed west by
outflow from convection to the east) interacting with a mid level
shortwave.

Satl imagery and KMAF radar is showing that the center of the
upper low is just WSW of Lubbock. As the low moves east and the
trough axis passes across there could be some convection across
the Guadalupe Mtns...Northern Eddy/Lea Counties...and the Northern
Permian Basin. No severe wx is expected as temps will be
significantly cooler (below normal for a change) which would cut
down on the instability. It will be breezy today...but winds
should stay below Advisory criteria.

Ridging will move over the Southern Plains ahead of the next
system which is in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in dry
weather thru the remainder of the week along with rapidly warming
temps...up to 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday. Winds will be
breezy...especially Friday but will remain below High Wind and
Advisory criteria.

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into New Mexico
Saturday...then move slowly east on Sunday. Saturday looks to be
warm and dry. Moist Gulf of Mexico air will be drawn northwest
into Central...and possibly West Texas on Sunday. As of now...and
it is very early...models are hinting at a dryline developing in
the Central Permian Basin Sunday moving east late in the aftn.

Riding will bring warm and dry weather Monday. Yet another Upper
low will move across the South Central Plains next Tuesday and
Wednesday. This system looks like it will be a wind producer.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move through the area today
bringing cooler temperatures to the area. That combined with rain
across much of the Permian Basin has alleviated the fire weather
threat for today. One location that may see near critical or low
end critical fire weather conditions is the Big Bend along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be warmest in the area and did not
see any appreciable rainfall yesterday. Given the forecast
uncertainty, decided not to issue a warning and will opt for a
Fire Danger Statement today for our southernmost CWA.

Increasingly warmer and drier conditions will return to the entire
area Thursday and Friday increasing the fire weather threat. However
winds will generally be below 20 mph except perhaps in Eddy County
which could see low end critical fire weather conditions. We will
continue to monitor this area for a possible watch or warning over
the next 24-48 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  46  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  43  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  47  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  43  70  51 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  42  76  50 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  40  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  46  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         64  46  79  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           65  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
846
FXUS64 KMAF 290902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday...a much calmer day is
in store for West Texas/Southeast New Mexico.

It appears based on sfc obs and radar data that last evenings
severe wx was caused by a retreating dry line (pushed west by
outflow from convection to the east) interacting with a mid level
shortwave.

Satl imagery and KMAF radar is showing that the center of the
upper low is just WSW of Lubbock. As the low moves east and the
trough axis passes across there could be some convection across
the Guadalupe Mtns...Northern Eddy/Lea Counties...and the Northern
Permian Basin. No severe wx is expected as temps will be
significantly cooler (below normal for a change) which would cut
down on the instability. It will be breezy today...but winds
should stay below Advisory criteria.

Ridging will move over the Southern Plains ahead of the next
system which is in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in dry
weather thru the remainder of the week along with rapidly warming
temps...up to 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday. Winds will be
breezy...especially Friday but will remain below High Wind and
Advisory criteria.

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into New Mexico
Saturday...then move slowly east on Sunday. Saturday looks to be
warm and dry. Moist Gulf of Mexico air will be drawn northwest
into Central...and possibly West Texas on Sunday. As of now...and
it is very early...models are hinting at a dryline developing in
the Central Permian Basin Sunday moving east late in the aftn.

Riding will bring warm and dry weather Monday. Yet another Upper
low will move across the South Central Plains next Tuesday and
Wednesday. This system looks like it will be a wind producer.

Strobin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move through the area today
bringing cooler temperatures to the area. That combined with rain
across much of the Permian Basin has alleviated the fire weather
threat for today. One location that may see near critical or low
end critical fire weather conditions is the Big Bend along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be warmest in the area and did not
see any appreciable rainfall yesterday. Given the forecast
uncertainty, decided not to issue a warning and will opt for a
Fire Danger Statement today for our southernmost CWA.

Increasingly warmer and drier conditions will return to the entire
area Thursday and Friday increasing the fire weather threat. However
winds will generally be below 20 mph except perhaps in Eddy County
which could see low end critical fire weather conditions. We will
continue to monitor this area for a possible watch or warning over
the next 24-48 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  46  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  43  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  47  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  43  70  51 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  42  76  50 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  40  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  46  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         64  46  79  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           65  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/33
659
FXUS64 KMAF 290626
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
126 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period with west winds
becoming northwesterly and gusty behind a cold front due by 18Z.
Winds diminish again after 00Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

UPDATE...
Update for High Wind Warning.

DISCUSSION...
High based showers in dry air along a Pacific front producing
numerous high wind gusts behind the dryline. Have issued a large
high wind warning for SE NM down to the Rio Grande. May need to
expand this warning across the Permian Basin if the trend
continues.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern is expected through this evening as a
strong upper level storm system tracks through New Mexico. Strong
lift and instability ahead of the upper low and dryline/cold front
will produce thunderstorms across portions of southeast New Mexico
near the upper low, and especially across the central and eastern
portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos ahead of the
dryline/cold front. Some of the storms will be severe the remainder
of this afternoon and this evening in the eastern Permian Basin
ahead of the dryline and cold front as strong instability and lift
interact with a strongly sheared atmosphere. In addition, winds
will increase significantly across the mountains and the plains
immediate adjacent to the mountains behind a dryline surge. Will
continue the High Wind Warning through 8 pm MDT for the Guadalupe
Mountains and the Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico
Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, Davis
Mountains and Marfa Plateau.

Conditions should improve significantly after midnight as the dry
line/cold front moves into central texas and winds diminish with
nocturnal cooling.

The upper low is forecast to track slowly across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Wednesday. Much cooler and below normal
temperatures are expected across southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas behind the cold front. There will also be a chance
of wraparound cyclonic showers across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin associated with the upper low.
It will be windy again across the region and Wind Advisories will
probably be needed across portions of the forecast area.

Beyond Wednesday above normal temperatures are expected to resume
again. Another Pacific storm system will approach the region
Friday and will only slowly move through the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday. There are model differences in the track and
intensity of this upper low. However it appears that the bulk of
the precipitation with this system will track east of the forecast
area. At this time it appears that winds will be the main concerns
with this system with breezy to windy conditions developing.

Another system is forecast to track across the central or southern
Plains early to the middle of next week. This system also looks
like it will be mainly a wind producer as well.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid evening along and
west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level storm
system approaches New Mexico late today the associated surface dryline
is sharpening. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are beginning to
materialize in the warning area as the gradient increases. Min rh/s
are a bit more problematic as some areas are currently struggling
to reach 15 percent or less. Will error on the side of caution
and continue the Red Flag Warning due to high temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal and fuels dry enough for high to very high
fire danger. In addition virga showers and dry lightning can not
be ruled out in the Warning area behind the dryline through early
this evening near the upper low.

Mainly poor to fair recovery is expected tonight. Cooler and more
moist conditions are expected tomorrow behind the cold front
across much of the region despite windy conditions expected. The
exceptions could be portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,
Presidio Valley. Later shifts will need to monitor these areas
for a possible Red Flag Warning or Fire Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  77  51  87 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  81  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  82 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  76  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  77  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           44  80  49  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
410
FXUS64 KMAF 282337
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Update for High Wind Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High based showers in dry air along a Pacific front producing
numerous high wind gusts behind the dryline. Have issued a large
high wind warning for SE NM down to the Rio Grande. May need to
expand this warning across the Permian Basin if the trend
continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have thunderstorms and/or high wind and blowing dust in all TAFs.
Expect very strong west wind in the wake of Pacific front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern is expected through this evening as a
strong upper level storm system tracks through New Mexico. Strong
lift and instability ahead of the upper low and dryline/cold front
will produce thunderstorms across portions of southeast New Mexico
near the upper low, and especially across the central and eastern
portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos ahead of the
dryline/cold front. Some of the storms will be severe the remainder
of this afternoon and this evening in the eastern Permian Basin
ahead of the dryline and cold front as strong instability and lift
interact with a strongly sheared atmosphere. In addition, winds
will increase significantly across the mountains and the plains
immediate adjacent to the mountains behind a dryline surge. Will
continue the High Wind Warning through 8 pm MDT for the Guadalupe
Mountains and the Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico
Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, Davis
Mountains and Marfa Plateau.

Conditions should improve significantly after midnight as the dry
line/cold front moves into central texas and winds diminish with
nocturnal cooling.

The upper low is forecast to track slowly across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Wednesday. Much cooler and below normal
temperatures are expected across southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas behind the cold front. There will also be a chance
of wraparound cyclonic showers across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin associated with the upper low.
It will be windy again across the region and Wind Advisories will
probably be needed across portions of the forecast area.

Beyond Wednesday above normal temperatures are expected to resume
again. Another Pacific storm system will approach the region
Friday and will only slowly move through the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday. There are model differences in the track and
intensity of this upper low. However it appears that the bulk of
the precipitation with this system will track east of the forecast
area. At this time it appears that winds will be the main concerns
with this system with breezy to windy conditions developing.

Another system is forecast to track across the central or southern
Plains early to the middle of next week. This system also looks
like it will be mainly a wind producer as well.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid evening along and
west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level storm
system approaches New Mexico late today the associated surface dryline
is sharpening. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are beginning to
materialize in the warning area as the gradient increases. Min rh/s
are a bit more problematic as some areas are currently struggling
to reach 15 percent or less. Will error on the side of caution
and continue the Red Flag Warning due to high temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal and fuels dry enough for high to very high
fire danger. In addition virga showers and dry lightning can not
be ruled out in the Warning area behind the dryline through early
this evening near the upper low.

Mainly poor to fair recovery is expected tonight. Cooler and more
moist conditions are expected tomorrow behind the cold front
across much of the region despite windy conditions expected. The
exceptions could be portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,
Presidio Valley. Later shifts will need to monitor these areas
for a possible Red Flag Warning or Fire Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  69  46  77 /  40  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  61  42  80 /  10  30  10   0
Dryden                         54  82  51  83 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  68  46  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  55  43  72 /   0  20   0   0
Hobbs                          45  53  40  75 /  10  30  10   0
Marfa                          42  67  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  65  47  77 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  61  45  78 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           50  64  44  80 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$
290
FXUS64 KMAF 282003
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
303 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern is expected through this evening as a
strong upper level storm system tracks through New Mexico. Strong
lift and instability ahead of the upper low and dryline/cold front
will produce thunderstorms across portions of southeast New Mexico
near the upper low, and especially across the central and eastern
portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos ahead of the
dryline/cold front. Some of the storms will be severe the remainder
of this afternoon and this evening in the eastern Permian Basin
ahead of the dryline and cold front as strong instability and lift
interact with a strongly sheared atmosphere. In addition, winds
will increase significantly across the mountains and the plains
immediate adjacent to the mountains behind a dryline surge. Will
continue the High Wind Warning through 8 pm MDT for the Guadalupe
Mountains and the Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico
Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, Davis
Mountains and Marfa Plateau.

Conditions should improve significantly after midnight as the dry
line/cold front moves into central texas and winds diminish with
nocturnal cooling.

The upper low is forecast to track slowly across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Wednesday. Much cooler and below normal
temperatures are expected across southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas behind the cold front. There will also be a chance
of wraparound cyclonic showers across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin associated with the upper low.
It will be windy again across the region and Wind Advisories will
probably be needed across portions of the forecast area.

Beyond Wednesday above normal temperatures are expected to resume
again. Another Pacific storm system will approach the region
Friday and will only slowly move through the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday. There are model differences in the track and
intensity of this upper low. However it appears that the bulk of
the precipitation with this system will track east of the forecast
area. At this time it appears that winds will be the main concerns
with this system with breezy to windy conditions developing.

Another system is forecast to track across the central or southern
Plains early to the middle of next week. This system also looks
like it will be mainly a wind producer as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid evening along and
west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level storm
system approaches New Mexico late today the associated surface dryline
is sharpening. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are beginning to
materialize in the warning area as the gradient increases. Min rh/s
are a bit more problematic as some areas are currently struggling
to reach 15 percent or less. Will error on the side of caution
and continue the Red Flag Warning due to high temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal and fuels dry enough for high to very high
fire danger. In addition virga showers and dry lightning can not
be ruled out in the Warning area behind the dryline through early
this evening near the upper low.

Mainly poor to fair recovery is expected tonight. Cooler and more
moist conditions are expected tomorrow behind the cold front
across much of the region despite windy conditions expected. The
exceptions could be portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,
Presidio Valley. Later shifts will need to monitor these areas
for a possible Red Flag Warning or Fire Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  69  46  77 /  40  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  61  42  80 /  10  30  10   0
Dryden                         54  82  51  83 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  68  46  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  55  43  72 /   0  20   0   0
Hobbs                          45  53  40  75 /  10  30  10   0
Marfa                          42  67  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  65  47  77 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  61  45  78 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           50  64  44  80 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/12
942
FXUS64 KMAF 281106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ragged MVFR ceilings have spread north through the Permian Basin and
will affect KMAF, KINK and KHOB through 28/15Z before mixing out.
Thereafter expect VFR conditions at all area terminals.  Winds will
veer to the southwest and become gusty by late morning, then become
more westerly and persist through the afternoon.  It appears
thunderstorms will develop east of all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

A deep upper level low is developing around the Four Corners
region and will slowly move east across New Mexico today. This low
pressure system will affect the weather today and tomorrow in a
number of ways.

First of all, moisture is drawing northwards into the Permian
Basin this morning with dewpoints in the 60s currently being
observed in McCamey and Big Lake. This moisture will collide with
dry air to the west causing a dryline to form that could become
the focus for convective development today mainly in the eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region. The best chance for
severe thunderstorms will be east of our CWA though persons in the Big
Spring-Snyder-Colorado City area should be alert for marginally
severe wind and hail.

The degree of strong winds that were initially expected with this
low has been scaled back somewhat. Current model runs have the low
center slightly farther south than was previously expected
bringing the lower winds near the low center closer to our area.
Strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains this
afternoon with low end advisory wind speeds expected in the
adjacent plains and Davis Mountains. Winds will diminish tonight
and are not expected to be as strong tomorrow.

A cold front will move through the area tomorrow as the upper low
moves east into North Texas. Cooler air behind the front will
bring highs back down to near or slightly below normal levels
before warming back by the end of the week. Another low pressure
system will move across the desert southwest this weekend on a
trajectory that is very similar to the one currently affecting the
area. Therefore the threats of wind/fire weather/severe storms
will need to be monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

.FIRE WEATHER...

A large upper level storm system will approach the region today with
southwesterly winds increasing ahead of it.  However, the upper low
will begin to move over the area this afternoon which could result
in shower development, and a cooling and moistening of the
atmospheric column.  This could limit the areal and temporal extent
of RHs of 15% or less.  There could be isolated lightning strikes
with some of the precipitation, in addition to locally strong, gusty
winds due to virga too.  Since 20 foot wind speeds will likely be 20
to 30 mph sustained over the Fire Weather Watch area for several
hours this afternoon, high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above
normal, and fuels are dry enough for high to very high fire danger,
will err on the side of caution and convert the Watch to a Red Flag
Warning, except in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where RHs may
only have 15% RHs for an hour or two.

Recovery will be poor in most locations tonight as 20 foot westerly
winds prevail.  Dry conditions will continue Wednesday with critical
fire weather conditions expected to affect the Big Bend region,
Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  Will not issue a Fire
Weather Watch for these areas due to an already complicated RFW.
There could be a break in critical conditions Thursday, but another
upper level storm system approaching the area could make Friday and
Saturday critical fire weather days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  50  76  46 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       75  47  67  42 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         88  54  86  51 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  84  52  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  43  58  43 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          75  45  59  40 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                          74  41  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           82  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         80  49  70  45 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           80  49  70  44 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT
     /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/10
076
FXUS64 KMAF 280909
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low is developing around the Four Corners
region and will slowly move east across New Mexico today. This low
pressure system will affect the weather today and tomorrow in a
number of ways.

First of all, moisture is drawing northwards into the Permian
Basin this morning with dewpoints in the 60s currently being
observed in McCamey and Big Lake. This moisture will collide with
dry air to the west causing a dryline to form that could become
the focus for convective development today mainly in the eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region. The best chance for
severe thunderstorms will be east of our CWA though persons in the Big
Spring-Snyder-Colorado City area should be alert for marginally
severe wind and hail.

The degree of strong winds that were initially expected with this
low has been scaled back somewhat. Current model runs have the low
center slightly farther south than was previously expected
bringing the lower winds near the low center closer to our area.
Strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains this
afternoon with low end advisory wind speeds expected in the
adjacent plains and Davis Mountains. Winds will diminish tonight
and are not expected to be as strong tomorrow.

A cold front will move through the area tomorrow as the upper low
moves east into North Texas. Cooler air behind the front will
bring highs back down to near or slightly below normal levels
before warming back by the end of the week. Another low pressure
system will move across the desert southwest this weekend on a
trajectory that is very similar to the one currently affecting the
area. Therefore the threats of wind/fire weather/severe storms
will need to be monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large upper level storm system will approach the region today with
southwesterly winds increasing ahead of it.  However, the upper low
will begin to move over the area this afternoon which could result
in shower development, and a cooling and moistening of the
atmospheric column.  This could limit the areal and temporal extent
of RHs of 15% or less.  There could be isolated lightning strikes
with some of the precipitation, in addition to locally strong, gusty
winds due to virga too.  Since 20 foot wind speeds will likely be 20
to 30 mph sustained over the Fire Weather Watch area for several
hours this afternoon, high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above
normal, and fuels are dry enough for high to very high fire danger,
will err on the side of caution and convert the Watch to a Red Flag
Warning, except in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where RHs may
only have 15% RHs for an hour or two.

Recovery will be poor in most locations tonight as 20 foot westerly
winds prevail.  Dry conditions will continue Wednesday with critical
fire weather conditions expected to affect the Big Bend region,
Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  Will not issue a Fire
Weather Watch for these areas due to an already complicated RFW.
There could be a break in critical conditions Thursday, but another
upper level storm system approaching the area could make Friday and
Saturday critical fire weather days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  50  76  46 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       75  47  67  42 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         88  54  86  51 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  84  52  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  43  58  43 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          75  45  59  40 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                          74  41  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           82  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         80  49  70  45 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           80  49  70  44 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT
     /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/10
765
FXUS64 KMAF 280515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A low level jet will strengthen over the Permian Basin overnight,
and aid low level moisture transport northwestward.  Expect MVFR, if
not high end IFR, ceilings to develop and move over KMAF and KHOB,
but there is not enough certainty to include them at KINK.  Will
include low level wind shear at KMAF from 28/09Z to 28/14Z when the
low level jet will shift off to the northeast.  Southwesterly winds
will increase at all area terminals behind the mid/high clouds
moving eastward over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  75  45  76 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       47  71  43  79 /   0  20  10   0
Dryden                         54  80  51  82 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  75  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  62  43  71 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          45  66  40  74 /   0  20  10   0
Marfa                          37  68  34  75 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  75  46  76 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                         49  73  46  76 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           48  74  43  79 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from 6 AM MDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning through
     Wednesday afternoon for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
331
FXUS64 KMAF 272318
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will generally be light out of the southeast this evening
into the overnight hours. Low ceilings are expected to move into
the area around 09z and dissipate around 15/16z primarily
affecting MAF. Winds will begin to pick up in intensity out of the
southwest around 15z with winds becoming even stronger out of the
west southwest around 18z to 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 154 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Currently under brief ridging aloft but this will give way to a
series of approaching upper troughs that will bring the possibility
of storms.  The first trough extending from the NW down across the
Great Basin today develops into a cut off low tonight over the 4
corners region.  This low will slowly wobble across NM Tuesday
passing over the Panhandle on Wednesday.  High pressure returns
behind it before another strong low drifts down out of the NW
Thursday moving across AZ Friday and Saturday finally reaching Far W
TX Sunday.  As long as a cut off low is west of the area there will
be the possibility of storms.

Temperatures will remain above normal this week and mainly in the
80s.  Cooler start to the morning as a weak front moved through
overnight... had some readings in the 30s across northern CWA and at
Marfa.  Next front looks to move through Wednesday night/Thursday
morning.

Have dewpts in the 20s and 30s today and need an increase in low
level moisture before can expect storms to develop.  May briefly see
dewpts in the 50s return Tuesday morning before quickly getting
blown east as the dryline moves east.  At this time not looking like
will get the moisture to return Tuesday night as dryline does not
come back.  Will be dry and breezy behind the dryline.  May also see
high wind through the mountains Tuesday... will continue the High
Wind Watch Tuesday for the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.

Some models develop precip Tuesday ahead of the main event others do
not.  It does appear main storm event will develop late... but may
be east of the area.  SWODY2 has a slight risk for eastern counties
but latest model runs indicate most of the storms may be east of
this area.  Based on latest qpf rain chances for this area are not
looking good for Tuesday/Tuesday night.  Have lowered pops but not
remove them... later shifts may need to lower pops even more.  Best
chance of rain will be for the counties of Scurry... Mitchell...
Reagan... and Terrell.  Will have another chance of storms over the
weekend with the next cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon and evening
along and west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level
storm system approaches New Mexico Tuesday afternoon the associated
surface dryline will sharpen. 20 foot winds should equal or exceed
20 mph in many areas in the watch area Tuesday afternoon as the gradient
increases. Min rh/s are a bit more uncertain however as considerable
mid and high level clouds could increase Tuesday afternoon in the watch
area as the upper level low approaches. This increase in clouds could
limit the duration that min rh/s reside at or below 15 percent. Further
east across the rest of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, confidence
is high that large scale lift ahead of the low should limit duration of
min rh/s below 15 percent.

More uncertainty exists on Wednesday as the slow moving upper level
storm system passes by to the north across the southern High Plains.
Again, 20 foot winds should equal or exceed 20 mph across southeast
New Mexico and much of west Texas. Again, the duration of min rh/s
residing at or below 15 percent is problematic as some of the guidance
is indicating a cooler and more moist southerly track to the upper low.
As such will hold off on adding any headlines at this time. Will continue
to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  82  49  75 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       52  77  47  71 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         60  86  54  80 /   0  10  40  10
Fort Stockton                  56  85  51  75 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  67  47  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  75  45  66 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          41  78  37  68 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  82  49  75 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         57  81  49  73 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           52  82  48  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
034
FXUS64 KMAF 271854
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
154 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently under brief ridging aloft but this will give way to a
series of approaching upper troughs that will bring the possibility
of storms.  The first trough extending from the NW down across the
Great Basin today develops into a cut off low tonight over the 4
corners region.  This low will slowly wobble across NM Tuesday
passing over the Panhandle on Wednesday.  High pressure returns
behind it before another strong low drifts down out of the NW
Thursday moving across AZ Friday and Saturday finally reaching Far W
TX Sunday.  As long as a cut off low is west of the area there will
be the possibility of storms.

Temperatures will remain above normal this week and mainly in the
80s.  Cooler start to the morning as a weak front moved through
overnight... had some readings in the 30s across northern CWA and at
Marfa.  Next front looks to move through Wednesday night/Thursday
morning.

Have dewpts in the 20s and 30s today and need an increase in low
level moisture before can expect storms to develop.  May briefly see
dewpts in the 50s return Tuesday morning before quickly getting
blown east as the dryline moves east.  At this time not looking like
will get the moisture to return Tuesday night as dryline does not
come back.  Will be dry and breezy behind the dryline.  May also see
high wind through the mountains Tuesday... will continue the High
Wind Watch Tuesday for the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.

Some models develop precip Tuesday ahead of the main event others do
not.  It does appear main storm event will develop late... but may
be east of the area.  SWODY2 has a slight risk for eastern counties
but latest model runs indicate most of the storms may be east of
this area.  Based on latest qpf rain chances for this area are not
looking good for Tuesday/Tuesday night.  Have lowered pops but not
remove them... later shifts may need to lower pops even more.  Best
chance of rain will be for the counties of Scurry... Mitchell...
Reagan... and Terrell.  Will have another chance of storms over the
weekend with the next cut off low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon and evening
along and west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level
storm system approaches New Mexico Tuesday afternoon the associated
surface dryline will sharpen. 20 foot winds should equal or exceed
20 mph in many areas in the watch area Tuesday afternoon as the gradient
increases. Min rh/s are a bit more uncertain however as considerable
mid and high level clouds could increase Tuesday afternoon in the watch
area as the upper level low approaches. This increase in clouds could
limit the duration that min rh/s reside at or below 15 percent. Further
east across the rest of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, confidence
is high that large scale lift ahead of the low should limit duration of
min rh/s below 15 percent.

More uncertainty exists on Wednesday as the slow moving upper level
storm system passes by to the north across the southern High Plains.
Again, 20 foot winds should equal or exceed 20 mph across southeast
New Mexico and much of west Texas. Again, the duration of min rh/s
residing at or below 15 percent is problematic as some of the guidance
is indicating a cooler and more moist southerly track to the upper low.
As such will hold off on adding any headlines at this time. Will continue
to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  82  49  75 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       52  77  47  71 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         60  86  54  80 /   0  10  40  10
Fort Stockton                  56  85  51  75 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  67  47  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  75  45  66 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          41  78  37  68 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  82  49  75 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         57  81  49  73 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           52  82  48  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

12/72
920
FXUS64 KMAF 271705
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under
clear to partly cloudy skies at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. The exception will be KMAF
where prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected from 09z/28 to 14z/28.
There is some chance that IFR conditions could develop during
that timeframe at KMAF but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention. In addition some showers or thunderstorms in or
near KMAF can not be ruled out after 06z/28 but confidence was not
high enough at this time to mention as well.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight at all area terminals.
Moisture will return to the region tonight with low clouds possibly
affecting KMAF late.  Will not include any mention at this time
since it will be after 28/09Z, and KMAF may be the only terminal
affected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

Today should be a pleasant day across much of the area before an
upper trough brings some unsettled weather on Tuesday. The trough
will deepen as it swings southeast across the Four Corners region.
Surface winds will swing around to the southeast and transport
Gulf moisture into West Texas. A dryline will set up across the
Permian Basin and be the focus for severe weather. Still some
uncertainty with the set up for this event as morning convection
could effect how the day plays out. Right now, the east/central
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will be the most likely to see
storms on Tuesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. There will be chance for a tornado or two given the
parameters in place, especially over the Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos where the vertical and directional shear is
best. West of the dryline will be windy conditions and lower
dewpoints leading to fire weather concerns. See fire weather
discussion below for more details. High winds will be possible
across the Guadalupe Mountains and above 6000 feet in the Davis
Mountains as strong upper level jets wrap around the base of the
trough Tuesday and Wednesday.

Storms should move out of the area overnight Tuesday as the
Pacific front blasts east. A cold front coming in from the north
will bring gusty north winds and an extra shot of cooler air,
which will keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for Wednesday.
A gradual warm up expected Thursday and Friday as the trough lifts
northeast. Will see a jump to around 10 degrees above normal on
Friday with temperatures in the 80s.

The progressive pattern continues into the weekend as the next
trough will move ashore and moves across the Rockies. Depending
on the track of this low pressure system, it could bring some rain
and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast. System will also
bring more cold air Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

A cold front will push southwest to the Pecos River before stalling
this morning, but minimum RHs will still drop to 10-15 percent
areawide this afternoon as temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above
normal.  Southwest winds over portions of the Guadalupe Mountains
and SE NM Plains will be 15-25 mph sustained this afternoon, and
since isolated critical conditions could occur in the Guadalupes,
will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas.  After poor
recovery west, good recovery east tonight, fire weather concerns
will increase Tuesday as an upper storm system approaches.  Will
issue a Fire Weather Watch for locations along and west of a
Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  More critical fire weather could
occur Wednesday, but mainly over southwest Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  82  49  75 /  10  40  40  10
Carlsbad                       52  76  47  71 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         59  86  56  80 /   0  20  40  10
Fort Stockton                  57  85  52  75 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  65  47  62 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          49  74  45  67 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                          41  78  39  69 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  82  49  75 /  10  20  30  10
Odessa                         57  81  49  73 /  10  10  30  10
Wink                           52  81  48  74 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/06
567
FXUS64 KMAF 271055
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight at all area terminals.
Moisture will return to the region tonight with low clouds possibly
affecting KMAF late.  Will not include any mention at this time
since it will be after 28/09Z, and KMAF may be the only terminal
affected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

Today should be a pleasant day across much of the area before an
upper trough brings some unsettled weather on Tuesday. The trough
will deepen as it swings southeast across the Four Corners region.
Surface winds will swing around to the southeast and transport
Gulf moisture into West Texas. A dryline will set up across the
Permian Basin and be the focus for severe weather. Still some
uncertainty with the set up for this event as morning convection
could effect how the day plays out. Right now, the east/central
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will be the most likely to see
storms on Tuesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. There will be chance for a tornado or two given the
parameters in place, especially over the Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos where the vertical and directional shear is
best. West of the dryline will be windy conditions and lower
dewpoints leading to fire weather concerns. See fire weather
discussion below for more details. High winds will be possible
across the Guadalupe Mountains and above 6000 feet in the Davis
Mountains as strong upper level jets wrap around the base of the
trough Tuesday and Wednesday.

Storms should move out of the area overnight Tuesday as the
Pacific front blasts east. A cold front coming in from the north
will bring gusty north winds and an extra shot of cooler air,
which will keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for Wednesday.
A gradual warm up expected Thursday and Friday as the trough lifts
northeast. Will see a jump to around 10 degrees above normal on
Friday with temperatures in the 80s.

The progressive pattern continues into the weekend as the next
trough will move ashore and moves across the Rockies. Depending
on the track of this low pressure system, it could bring some rain
and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast. System will also
bring more cold air Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

A cold front will push southwest to the Pecos River before stalling
this morning, but minimum RHs will still drop to 10-15 percent
areawide this afternoon as temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above
normal.  Southwest winds over portions of the Guadalupe Mountains
and SE NM Plains will be 15-25 mph sustained this afternoon, and
since isolated critical conditions could occur in the Guadalupes,
will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas.  After poor
recovery west, good recovery east tonight, fire weather concerns
will increase Tuesday as an upper storm system approaches.  Will
issue a Fire Weather Watch for locations along and west of a
Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  More critical fire weather could
occur Wednesday, but mainly over southwest Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     80  58  82  49 /   0  10  40  40
Carlsbad                       82  52  76  47 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         90  59  86  56 /   0   0  20  40
Fort Stockton                  85  57  85  52 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 75  53  65  47 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          77  49  74  45 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          79  41  78  39 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           82  58  82  49 /   0  10  20  30
Odessa                         81  57  81  49 /   0  10  10  30
Wink                           82  52  81  48 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/06
604
FXUS64 KMAF 270945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
445 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Today should be a pleasant day across much of the area before an
upper trough brings some unsettled weather on Tuesday. The trough
will deepen as it swings southeast across the Four Corners region.
Surface winds will swing around to the southeast and transport
Gulf moisture into West Texas. A dryline will set up across the
Permian Basin and be the focus for severe weather. Still some
uncertainty with the set up for this event as morning convection
could effect how the day plays out. Right now, the east/central
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will be the most likely to see
storms on Tuesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. There will be chance for a tornado or two given the
parameters in place, especially over the Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos where the vertical and directional shear is
best. West of the dryline will be windy conditions and lower
dewpoints leading to fire weather concerns. See fire weather
discussion below for more details. High winds will be possible
across the Guadalupe Mountains and above 6000 feet in the Davis
Mountains as strong upper level jets wrap around the base of the
trough Tuesday and Wednesday.

Storms should move out of the area overnight Tuesday as the
Pacific front blasts east. A cold front coming in from the north
will bring gusty north winds and an extra shot of cooler air,
which will keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for Wednesday.
A gradual warm up expected Thursday and Friday as the trough lifts
northeast. Will see a jump to around 10 degrees above normal on
Friday with temperatures in the 80s.

The progressive pattern continues into the weekend as the next
trough will move ashore and moves across the Rockies. Depending
on the track of this low pressure system, it could bring some rain
and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast. System will also
bring more cold air Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
A cold front will push southwest to the Pecos River before stalling
this morning, but minimum RHs will still drop to 10-15 percent
areawide this afternoon as temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above
normal.  Southwest winds over portions of the Guadalupe Mountains
and SE NM Plains will be 15-25 mph sustained this afternoon, and
since isolated critical conditions could occur in the Guadalupes,
will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas.  After poor
recovery west, good recovery east tonight, fire weather concerns
will increase Tuesday as an upper storm system approaches.  Will
issue a Fire Weather Watch for locations along and west of a
Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  More critical fire weather could
occur Wednesday, but mainly over southwest Texas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     80  58  82  49 /   0  10  40  40
Carlsbad                       82  52  76  47 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         90  59  86  56 /   0   0  20  40
Fort Stockton                  85  57  85  52 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 75  53  65  47 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          77  49  74  45 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          79  41  78  39 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           82  58  82  49 /   0  10  20  30
Odessa                         81  57  81  49 /   0  10  10  30
Wink                           82  52  81  48 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/06
428
FXUS64 KMAF 270514
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1214 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through the
forecast period. A cold front will move south through the area
this morning, but winds are not expected to be overly strong,
and will veer around to the south after 27/21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  82  50  75 /  10  40  60  20
Carlsbad                       52  81  48  71 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         59  89  59  80 /   0  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  57  85  52  75 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  70  42  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  78  46  67 /   0  10  30  20
Marfa                          41  77  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  83  49  75 /  10  30  50  10
Odessa                         57  84  48  73 /  10  20  50  20
Wink                           52  84  48  74 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
001
FXUS64 KMAF 270212
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
912 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and
cancellation of the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wind speeds have decreased rapidly this evening ahead of a cold
front that will move through the area overnight tonight. Thus, the
High Wind Warning that was in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
has been allowed to expire as scheduled. The lighter winds have
also allowed fire weather conditions to improve, and given
continued light winds overnight as well as continued RH recovery,
have cancelled the Red Flag Warning that was in effect. The
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track this evening, with
no other updates warranted. Updated products will be out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours within the
dry slot of a potent upper low currently over southwestern KS.
Strong westerly surface winds across all terminals now will
drop below 10 kts by 27/01Z as the PBL decouples. A weak cold
front is expected to drop south across the Panhandle overnight,
with frontal passage expected across KHOB, KINK, and KMAF in the
08-10Z range, with the front becoming quasi-stationary more or
less along the Pecos River. Winds will continue to veer to a
northeasterly, then easterly direction north of the front with
winds generally below 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  58  82 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       46  82  52  81 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         55  90  59  89 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  53  86  57  85 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  74  53  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  78  49  78 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          38  78  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  83  58  83 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         46  82  57  84 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           44  85  52  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/84
056
FXUS64 KMAF 262330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours within the
dry slot of a potent upper low currently over southwestern KS.
Strong westerly surface winds across all terminals now will
drop below 10 kts by 27/01Z as the PBL decouples. A weak cold
front is expected to drop south across the Panhandle overnight,
with frontal passage expected across KHOB, KINK, and KMAF in the
08-10Z range, with the front becoming quasi-stationary more or
less along the Pecos River. Winds will continue to veer to a
northeasterly, then easterly direction north of the front with
winds generally below 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  58  82 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       46  82  52  81 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         55  90  59  89 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  53  86  57  85 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  74  53  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  78  49  78 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          38  78  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  83  58  83 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         46  82  57  84 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           44  85  52  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

70/84/70
700
FXUS64 KMAF 261900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have upper trough centered over CO early passing across the region
today with brief ridging expected after that.  A stronger trough
will move ashore the West Coast Monday and develop into a cut off
low as it moves over the 4 Corners region early Tuesday.  As this
low approaches the area Tuesday could see the development of
thunderstorms for parts of the area.  Will briefly return to ridging
aloft before another trough moves down from the NW Thursday and cuts
off Friday west of the area.

Windy conditions possible today in the mountains and a High Wind
Warning remains in effect.  Have had a streak of high clouds over
the center of the area much of the day but these are moving east...
sunny skies behind it.

Have storm chances beginning Tuesday mainly east ahead of the upper
low and along the dryline.  Presently pretty dry but moisture should
return by Tuesday with dewpts climbing back into the 50s.  Model qpf
develops most of the storms in the evening and then pushes them into
Central TX.  There could be some severe storms Tuesday... will
continue to highlight in HWO.  SPCDY3 has a slight risk along and
east of a Lamesa... Midland... to Sanderson line.  There will be a
low chance of some wrap around precip on Wednesday but not expecting
much.  Will have a another chance of storms over the weekend with
the next upper low.

Temperatures continue to look above normal for most of the week with
highs mainly in the 80s with 90s along the Rio Grande.  Lows will be
in the 40s and 50s.  A weak front looks to briefly move into the
area tomorrow morning before quickly lifting northward.  Another
front passes through morning Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High clouds are clearing from west to east and winds are beginning
to increase early this afternoon across the region. Carlsbad and
Alpine now have Red Flag Conditions and Hobbs and Seminole are
approaching them. Expect the remainder of southeast New Mexico and
much of the remainder of west Texas to quickly develop Red Flag
criteria this afternoon due to clearing skies combined with an
impressive surface pressure gradient and deep mixing of stronger
winds aloft. The westerly winds will promote downslope warming and
drying with min rh/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent. Conditions should
improve by early this evening as winds diminish with nocturnal
cooling. Overnight recovery however will be poor south and west of
the Pecos River and fair to the north and east.

A cold front will move through the forecast area late tonight
and Monday and stall near the Pecos River. Fire weather concerns
will decrease Monday as winds decrease significantly behind this
front despite min rh/s dropping below 15 percent across southeast
New Mexico and much of west Texas. Rh recovery Monday night is
expected to be poor to fair south and west of the Pecos River and
mainly fair north and east.

Fire weather concerns may increase again Tuesday afternoon behind a
strong dryline across southeast New Mexico and portions of west
Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  58  82 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       46  82  52  81 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         55  90  59  89 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  53  86  57  85 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  74  53  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  78  49  78 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          38  78  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  83  58  83 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         46  82  57  84 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           44  85  52  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

12/72
757
FXUS64 KMAF 261706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. West winds will increase to
20 to 30 mph and gusty by early afternoon. Winds should diminish
shortly before sunset and overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in westerly flow, w/a
few high clouds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough can be seen on Water-vapor moving across the
Four Corners region and will move into the central-southern Great
Plains by this afternoon. The base of this trough will pass over
the area and result in some breezy conditions for much of the
area. Still expect high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning this morning and continuing into early evening, so will
upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Plenty of dry air will be in
place and combined with the dry air, fire weather conditions will
be on tap for today as well. See Fire Weather Discussion below for
more information. As the aforementioned trough ejects into the
Midwest Sunday night, winds should lighten up out of the west
before a front moves through the Permian Basin and reach the Pecos
River by early morning Monday. The result will be only slightly
cooler high temperatures for the northern Permian Basin and
portions of southeast New Mexico.

The next upper trough in a progressive pattern through the week
will track southeastward Monday and through the Four Corners
region on Tuesday. Increasing southeasterly flow will draw
moisture back into West Texas and southeast New Mexico and a
dryline will set up across the Permian Basin. Steep mid level
lapse rates and strong shear will favor the development of severe
storms east of the dryline Tuesday evening. The main threats will
be large hail and damaging winds. However, parameters are such
that the chance for a tornado can not be ruled out. There is still
a little bit of uncertainty at this time to exactly where the
dryline will set up. Right now the highest risk favors the
central and eastern Permian Basin south into the Lower Trans
Pecos.

Cooler temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s expected on
Wednesday and remain in the 70s for Thursday after the passage of
a cold front. A brief ridge will move over the Texas Panhandle
late in the work week before another low pressure system swings
across the southwest US. Rain and thunderstorms chances look to
return for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough over the Four Corners, and
forecast to reach the Texas/OK Panhandles by around 15Z.  If it was
3-6 hrs slower, higher winds would coincide w/peak mixing/heating,
and afternoon winds would be a little stronger.  NAM forecast
soundings mix to 700 mb (W~25kts) at 21Z, whereas the GFS is a
little deeper at 650mb (W~30kts).  Either way, w/mostly sunny skies
expected, 20` winds should be modestly critical, but widespread.
However, the GFS is preferred, due to past performance in recent
days, and the fact that it is the driest model.  All models came in
too moist, but the GFS is closest to reality.  That said, this
yields RFTIs of 5 or better for most of the current watch area.
Thus, we`ll convert the current watch area to a RFW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  81  58  81 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       46  81  49  81 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         54  89  59  84 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  52  84  56  84 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  73  52  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  78  48  78 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          38  78  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  82  56  82 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         47  81  56  83 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           45  83  51  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
239
FXUS64 KMAF 261030
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
530 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in westerly flow, w/a
few high clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough can be seen on Water-vapor moving across the
Four Corners region and will move into the central-southern Great
Plains by this afternoon. The base of this trough will pass over
the area and result in some breezy conditions for much of the
area. Still expect high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning this morning and continuing into early evening, so will
upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Plenty of dry air will be in
place and combined with the dry air, fire weather conditions will
be on tap for today as well. See Fire Weather Discussion below for
more information. As the aforementioned trough ejects into the
Midwest Sunday night, winds should lighten up out of the west
before a front moves through the Permian Basin and reach the Pecos
River by early morning Monday. The result will be only slightly
cooler high temperatures for the northern Permian Basin and
portions of southeast New Mexico.

The next upper trough in a progressive pattern through the week
will track southeastward Monday and through the Four Corners
region on Tuesday. Increasing southeasterly flow will draw
moisture back into West Texas and southeast New Mexico and a
dryline will set up across the Permian Basin. Steep mid level
lapse rates and strong shear will favor the development of severe
storms east of the dryline Tuesday evening. The main threats will
be large hail and damaging winds. However, parameters are such
that the chance for a tornado can not be ruled out. There is still
a little bit of uncertainty at this time to exactly where the
dryline will set up. Right now the highest risk favors the
central and eastern Permian Basin south into the Lower Trans
Pecos.

Cooler temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s expected on
Wednesday and remain in the 70s for Thursday after the passage of
a cold front. A brief ridge will move over the Texas Panhandle
late in the work week before another low pressure system swings
across the southwest US. Rain and thunderstorms chances look to
return for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough over the Four Corners, and
forecast to reach the Texas/OK Panhandles by around 15Z.  If it was
3-6 hrs slower, higher winds would coincide w/peak mixing/heating,
and afternoon winds would be a little stronger.  NAM forecast
soundings mix to 700 mb (W~25kts) at 21Z, whereas the GFS is a
little deeper at 650mb (W~30kts).  Either way, w/mostly sunny skies
expected, 20` winds should be modestly critical, but widespread.
However, the GFS is preferred, due to past performance in recent
days, and the fact that it is the driest model.  All models came in
too moist, but the GFS is closest to reality.  That said, this
yields RFTIs of 5 or better for most of the current watch area.
Thus, we`ll convert the current watch area to a RFW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  47  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  46  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         92  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  48  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  42  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  48  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         82  47  81  56 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           83  45  83  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
120
FXUS64 KMAF 260945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
445 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough can be seen on Water-vapor moving across the
Four Corners region and will move into the central-southern Great
Plains by this afternoon. The base of this trough will pass over
the area and result in some breezy conditions for much of the
area. Still expect high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning this morning and continuing into early evening, so will
upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Plenty of dry air will be in
place and combined with the dry air, fire weather conditions will
be on tap for today as well. See Fire Weather Discussion below for
more information. As the aforementioned trough ejects into the
Midwest Sunday night, winds should lighten up out of the west
before a front moves through the Permian Basin and reach the Pecos
River by early morning Monday. The result will be only slightly
cooler high temperatures for the northern Permian Basin and
portions of southeast New Mexico.

The next upper trough in a progressive pattern through the week
will track southeastward Monday and through the Four Corners
region on Tuesday. Increasing southeasterly flow will draw
moisture back into West Texas and southeast New Mexico and a
dryline will set up across the Permian Basin. Steep mid level
lapse rates and strong shear will favor the development of severe
storms east of the dryline Tuesday evening. The main threats will
be large hail and damaging winds. However, parameters are such
that the chance for a tornado can not be ruled out. There is still
a little bit of uncertainty at this time to exactly where the
dryline will set up. Right now the highest risk favors the
central and eastern Permian Basin south into the Lower Trans
Pecos.

Cooler temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s expected on
Wednesday and remain in the 70s for Thursday after the passage of
a cold front. A brief ridge will move over the Texas Panhandle
late in the work week before another low pressure system swings
across the southwest US. Rain and thunderstorms chances look to
return for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough over the Four Corners, and
forecast to reach the Texas/OK Panhandles by around 15Z.  If it was
3-6 hrs slower, higher winds would coincide w/peak mixing/heating,
and afternoon winds would be a little stronger.  NAM forecast
soundings mix to 700 mb (W~25kts) at 21Z, whereas the GFS is a
little deeper at 650mb (W~30kts).  Either way, w/mostly sunny skies
expected, 20` winds should be modestly critical, but widespread.
However, the GFS is preferred, due to past performance in recent
days, and the fact that it is the driest model.  All models came in
too moist, but the GFS is closest to reality.  That said, this
yields RFTIs of 5 or better for most of the current watch area.
Thus, we`ll convert the current watch area to a RFW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  47  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  46  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         92  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  48  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  42  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  48  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         82  47  81  56 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           83  45  83  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06
061
FXUS64 KMAF 260603
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
103 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in westerly flow, w/a
few high clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
winds tonight will veer to the southwest Sunday morning, and then
to the west by around 17-18Z. Winds will begin to increase after
15Z, with gusts to around 30kt possible through the afternoon at
all terminals. While some blowing dust may be possible,
particularly after 18Z Sunday afternoon, have not included mention
at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have brief upper ridging over the area today before an upper trough
moving across CA/NV today moves over the region Sunday.  Will get
another dose of brief ridging Monday before a stronger trough moving
out of CA develops into a cut off low over southern NV later that
day.  By early Tuesday this low will be over AZ and wobble into NM
early Wednesday.  On Wednesday this low will pass over TX and into
OK by early Thursday.  Now have another trough Friday that models
show diving out of the NW and moving down across the Great Basin
developing into a closed low near the 4 corners region. These two
lows could be wx producer for the area.

Have clear skies today in post frontal conditions.  Had a cool start
to the morning but with sunny skies and a south wind temps warming
up quickly.  Marfa... Alpine... Fort Davis... and Tatum all got down
into the 30s this morning.  It may be windy Sunday as upper trough
moves across the region... will continue the High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Temperatures this week will be cooler than
most of last week as a series of fronts move through the region...
one early Monday and another early Thursday.

Will have storm chances back in the forecast ahead of upper troughs
Tue/Wed and again Fri/Sat. Expect some of these storms could be
strong to severe but still a ways out.

FIRE WEATHER...
Storm system now along the west coast is forecast to track quickly
across the Rockies tonight and into the Texas Panhandle Sunday. A
stout surface pressure gradient to the south of the low combined
with deep mixing of 700 millibar winds of 30 to 40 knots will allow
for surface westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday morning through mid Sunday
evening. In addition westerly winds will promote downslope warming and
drying with min rh/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent. There will be a period
of considerable high clouds moving across the region Sunday afternoon
but forecast soundings indicate that the clouds will be thin. Will
go ahead and expand eastward the Fire Weather Watch to now include
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  46  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  45  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  54  89  58 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  50  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  46  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  42  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  47  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         82  47  81  56 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           84  45  83  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM MDT this morning through this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today through this
     evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM MDT this morning through this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
399
FXUS64 KMAF 252334
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
winds tonight will veer to the southwest Sunday morning, and then
to the west by around 17-18Z. Winds will begin to increase after
15Z, with gusts to around 30kt possible through the afternoon at
all terminals. While some blowing dust may be possible,
particularly after 18Z Sunday afternoon, have not included mention
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have brief upper ridging over the area today before an upper trough
moving across CA/NV today moves over the region Sunday.  Will get
another dose of brief ridging Monday before a stronger trough moving
out of CA develops into a cut off low over southern NV later that
day.  By early Tuesday this low will be over AZ and wobble into NM
early Wednesday.  On Wednesday this low will pass over TX and into
OK by early Thursday.  Now have another trough Friday that models
show diving out of the NW and moving down across the Great Basin
developing into a closed low near the 4 corners region. These two
lows could be wx producer for the area.

Have clear skies today in post frontal conditions.  Had a cool start
to the morning but with sunny skies and a south wind temps warming
up quickly.  Marfa... Alpine... Fort Davis... and Tatum all got down
into the 30s this morning.  It may be windy Sunday as upper trough
moves across the region... will continue the High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Temperatures this week will be cooler than
most of last week as a series of fronts move through the region...
one early Monday and another early Thursday.

Will have storm chances back in the forecast ahead of upper troughs
Tue/Wed and again Fri/Sat. Expect some of these storms could be
strong to severe but still a ways out.

FIRE WEATHER...
Storm system now along the west coast is forecast to track quickly
across the Rockies tonight and into the Texas Panhandle Sunday. A
stout surface pressure gradient to the south of the low combined
with deep mixing of 700 millibar winds of 30 to 40 knots will allow
for surface westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday morning through mid Sunday
evening. In addition westerly winds will promote downslope warming and
drying with min rh/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent. There will be a period
of considerable high clouds moving across the region Sunday afternoon
but forecast soundings indicate that the clouds will be thin. Will
go ahead and expand eastward the Fire Weather Watch to now include
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  83  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  76  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  82  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  84  45  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
440
FXUS64 KMAF 251847
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
147 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have brief upper ridging over the area today before an upper trough
moving across CA/NV today moves over the region Sunday.  Will get
another dose of brief ridging Monday before a stronger trough moving
out of CA develops into a cut off low over southern NV later that
day.  By early Tuesday this low will be over AZ and wobble into NM
early Wednesday.  On Wednesday this low will pass over TX and into
OK by early Thursday.  Now have another trough Friday that models
show diving out of the NW and moving down across the Great Basin
developing into a closed low near the 4 corners region. These two
lows could be wx producer for the area.

Have clear skies today in post frontal conditions.  Had a cool start
to the morning but with sunny skies and a south wind temps warming
up quickly.  Marfa... Alpine... Fort Davis... and Tatum all got down
into the 30s this morning.  It may be windy Sunday as upper trough
moves across the region... will continue the High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Temperatures this week will be cooler than
most of last week as a series of fronts move through the region...
one early Monday and another early Thursday.

Will have storm chances back in the forecast ahead of upper troughs
Tue/Wed and again Fri/Sat. Expect some of these storms could be
strong to severe but still a ways out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Storm system now along the west coast is forecast to track quickly
across the Rockies tonight and into the Texas Panhandle Sunday. A
stout surface pressure gradient to the south of the low combined
with deep mixing of 700 millibar winds of 30 to 40 knots will allow
for surface westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday morning through mid Sunday
evening. In addition westerly winds will promote downslope warming and
drying with min rh/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent. There will be a period
of considerable high clouds moving across the region Sunday afternoon
but forecast soundings indicate that the clouds will be thin. Will
go ahead and expand eastward the Fire Weather Watch to now include
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  83  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  76  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  82  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  84  45  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

12/72
091
FXUS64 KMAF 251718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear to partly cloudy
skies. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through mid Sunday
morning. Winds will become west and increase to 20 to 30 mph and
gusty by late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as sfc pressure
gradients continue to slacken. Light NE winds will give way to
return flow after 00Z Saturday.  A few high clouds are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy
conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its
trek eastward.  Brief ridging will be over the area as a surface
high drains south into the area through the morning and early
afternoon hours with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s are expected for much of the area. The next
trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move
eastward across the Four Corners region.  By Sunday afternoon, it
will be moving across the northern Texas Panhandle and with it windy
conditions will return. Strong upper level winds will accompany this
trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
Fire weather will also be a concern as low RHs will be in place.
See Fire Weather Discussion below.

A front will slide into the area on Monday, but there will not be
much impact other than a wind shift to the north.  A broad and weak
upper ridge will pass over the area before attention turns to the
next trough swinging southeastward across the western Great Basin.
The upper low is expected to close off and deepen by Monday night as
it cross the Rockies and then pass over New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle. There will be plenty of moisture return and as such,
there will be a good chance for rain beginning Tuesday and
continuing through Wednesday.  May even see some storms as plenty of
shear and instability will available on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a
front will push south into the Permian Basin through the afternoon
bringing more rain chances and some cooler air with it. There
still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system, so will
need to fine tune the details over the next couple days.

The progressive pattern continues with yet another low expected to
swing southeastward through the Great Basin by the end of the
week.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough making landfall on the west
coast.  This feature is forecast to follow the track of the last
one, arriving near the Texas/OK Panhandles at around 18Z Sunday. NAM
forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon mix to ~ 700mb (W 25-35kts),
whereas the GFS goes deeper to ~ 650mb (W 30-40kts), setting up for
critical 20` winds under mostly sunny skies.  Moisture recovery
looks rotten between now and then, and so the afternoon could see a
few hours of critical fire wx as RH bottoms out.  W/Fire Danger high
and ERCs still near the 90th percentile, we`ll issue a watch for the
Guadalupes, SE NM Plains, and areas of Texas south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  85  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  71  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  78  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  78  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
041
FXUS64 KMAF 250959
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
459 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as sfc pressure
gradients continue to slacken. Light NE winds will give way to
return flow after 00Z Saturday.  A few high clouds are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy
conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its
trek eastward.  Brief ridging will be over the area as a surface
high drains south into the area through the morning and early
afternoon hours with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s are expected for much of the area. The next
trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move
eastward across the Four Corners region.  By Sunday afternoon, it
will be moving across the northern Texas Panhandle and with it windy
conditions will return. Strong upper level winds will accompany this
trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
Fire weather will also be a concern as low RHs will be in place.
See Fire Weather Discussion below.

A front will slide into the area on Monday, but there will not be
much impact other than a wind shift to the north.  A broad and weak
upper ridge will pass over the area before attention turns to the
next trough swinging southeastward across the western Great Basin.
The upper low is expected to close off and deepen by Monday night as
it cross the Rockies and then pass over New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle. There will be plenty of moisture return and as such,
there will be a good chance for rain beginning Tuesday and
continuing through Wednesday.  May even see some storms as plenty of
shear and instability will available on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a
front will push south into the Permian Basin through the afternoon
bringing more rain chances and some cooler air with it. There
still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system, so will
need to fine tune the details over the next couple days.

The progressive pattern continues with yet another low expected to
swing southeastward through the Great Basin by the end of the
week.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough making landfall on the west
coast.  This feature is forecast to follow the track of the last
one, arriving near the Texas/OK Panhandles at around 18Z Sunday. NAM
forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon mix to ~ 700mb (W 25-35kts),
whereas the GFS goes deeper to ~ 650mb (W 30-40kts), setting up for
critical 20` winds under mostly sunny skies.  Moisture recovery
looks rotten between now and then, and so the afternoon could see a
few hours of critical fire wx as RH bottoms out.  W/Fire Danger high
and ERCs still near the 90th percentile, we`ll issue a watch for the
Guadalupes, SE NM Plains, and areas of Texas south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  54  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  50  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         83  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  55  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  46  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  36  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           79  53  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  53  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  51  85  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
636
FXUS64 KMAF 250941
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
441 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy
conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its
trek eastward.  Brief ridging will be over the area as a surface
high drains south into the area through the morning and early
afternoon hours with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s are expected for much of the area. The next
trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move
eastward across the Four Corners region.  By Sunday afternoon, it
will be moving across the northern Texas Panhandle and with it windy
conditions will return. Strong upper level winds will accompany this
trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
Fire weather will also be a concern as low RHs will be in place.
See Fire Weather Discussion below.

A front will slide into the area on Monday, but there will not be
much impact other than a wind shift to the north.  A broad and weak
upper ridge will pass over the area before attention turns to the
next trough swinging southeastward across the western Great Basin.
The upper low is expected to close off and deepen by Monday night as
it cross the Rockies and then pass over New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle. There will be plenty of moisture return and as such,
there will be a good chance for rain beginning Tuesday and
continuing through Wednesday.  May even see some storms as plenty of
shear and instability will available on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a
front will push south into the Permian Basin through the afternoon
bringing more rain chances and some cooler air with it. There
still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system, so will
need to fine tune the details over the next couple days.

The progressive pattern continues with yet another low expected to
swing southeastward through the Great Basin by the end of the
week.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough making landfall on the west
coast.  This feature is forecast to follow the track of the last
one, arriving near the Texas/OK Panhandles at around 18Z Sunday. NAM
forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon mix to ~ 700mb (W 25-35kts),
whereas the GFS goes deeper to ~ 650mb (W 30-40kts), setting up for
critical 20` winds under mostly sunny skies.  Moisture recovery
looks rotten between now and then, and so the afternoon could see a
few hours of critical fire wx as RH bottoms out.  W/Fire Danger high
and ERCs still near the 90th percentile, we`ll issue a watch for the
Guadalupes, SE NM Plains, and areas of Texas south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  85  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  71  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  78  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  78  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06
094
FXUS64 KMAF 250924
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
424 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy
conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its
trek eastward.  Brief ridging will be over the area as a surface
high drains south into the area through the morning and early
afternoon hours with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s are expected for much of the area. The next
trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move
eastward across the Four Corners region.  By Sunday afternoon, it
will be moving across the northern Texas Panhandle and with it windy
conditions will return. Strong upper level winds will accompany this
trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
Fire weather will also be a concern as low RHs will be in place.

A front will slide into the area on Monday, but there will not be
much impact other than a wind shift to the north.  A broad and weak
upper ridge will pass over the area before attention turns to the
next trough swinging southeastward across the western Great Basin.
The upper low is expected to close off and deepen by Monday night as
it cross the Rockies and then pass over New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle. There will be plenty of moisture return and as such,
there will be a good chance for rain beginning Tuesday and
continuing through Wednesday.  May even see some storms as plenty of
shear and instability will available on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a
front will push south into the Permian Basin through the afternoon
bringing more rain chances and some cooler air with it. There
still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system, so will
need to fine tune the details over the next couple days.

The progressive pattern continues with yet another low expected to
swing southeastward through the Great Basin by the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  54  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  50  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         83  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  55  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  46  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  36  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           79  53  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  53  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  51  85  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06
327
FXUS64 KMAF 250448
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as sfc pressure
gradients continue to slacken. Light NE winds will give way to
return flow after 00Z Saturday.  A few high clouds are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 913 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have decreased significantly across the area this evening,
with latest observations also indicating RH values now above 15
percent for most locations. Thus, have allowed the Red Flag
Warning to expire as scheduled. Updated products will be out
shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 727 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and the Wind
Advisory

DISCUSSION...
Winds across the areas this evening have decreased to below
critical thresholds. Because of this, we have allowed the High
Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish by around 06Z, with sustained speeds expected
to be around 12kt or less areawide thereafter. Winds will veer to
the northwest tonight, and then return to the south Saturday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  34  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  44  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  45  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  82  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/06/44
307
FXUS64 KMAF 250213
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...RESENT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
913 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have decreased significantly across the area this evening,
with latest observations also indicating RH values now above 15
percent for most locations. Thus, have allowed the Red Flag
Warning to expire as scheduled. Updated products will be out
shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 727 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and the Wind
Advisory

DISCUSSION...
Winds across the areas this evening have decreased to below
critical thresholds. Because of this, we have allowed the High
Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish by around 06Z, with sustained speeds expected
to be around 12kt or less areawide thereafter. Winds will veer to
the northwest tonight, and then return to the south Saturday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/03
443
FXUS64 KMAF 250027
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
727 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and the Wind
Advisory

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds across the areas this evening have decreased to below
critical thresholds. Because of this, we have allowed the High
Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish by around 06Z, with sustained speeds expected
to be around 12kt or less areawide thereafter. Winds will veer to
the northwest tonight, and then return to the south Saturday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

03
771
FXUS64 KMAF 242338
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish by around 06Z, with sustained speeds expected
to be around 12kt or less areawide thereafter. Winds will veer to
the northwest tonight, and then return to the south Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
059
FXUS64 KMAF 241818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

10/72
826
FXUS64 KMAF 241730
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will be veering around from the west to the northwest
through the next several hours as a cold front moves through the
area. Winds will maintain speeds through that time then will
diminish after 00Z. VFR conditions will remain through the next 24
hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20`
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday`s event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20` winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday`s activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
721
FXUS64 KMAF 241002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in localized
BLDU. WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Texas/OK
Panhandles, leaving all terminals in subsidence on the backside
today. As a result, windy conditions will continue, w/westerlies
veering to NW, and beginning to diminish after 00Z Fri. A few high
clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20`
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday`s event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20` winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday`s activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
396
FXUS64 KMAF 240939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20`
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday`s event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20` winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday`s activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06
100
FXUS64 KMAF 240440
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in localized
BLDU. WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave all terminals in subsidence on the
backside today. As a result, windy conditions will continue,
w/westerlies veering to NW, and beginning to diminish after 00Z
Fri.  A few high clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Update to remove high wind highlights except for GDP Mtns and to
cancel RFW.

DISCUSSION...
Winds are decreasing although still windy in a few places as front
moves east across the area. Southerly LLJ will keep winds up
across the east for few more hours.

Also we have opted to cancel RFW, as conditions have abated. Per
satellite we detected a few fires in the area today including;
along I-10 east of Van Horn, near Orla, sw of Seminole and se of
Wink.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  50  75  45 /  10  40  10   0
Carlsbad                       88  46  77  42 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  53  81  50 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  90  50  78  48 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  40  66  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  44  72  40 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  38  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  49  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         85  48  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           91  48  78  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MDT Friday through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Friday through
     Friday evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
841
FXUS64 KMAF 240315 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1015 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Update to remove high wind highlights except for GDP Mtns and to
cancel RFW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are decreasing although still windy in a few places as front
moves east across the area. Southerly LLJ will keep winds up
across the east for few more hours.

Also we have opted to cancel RFW, as conditions have abated. Per
satellite we detected a few fires in the area today including;
along I-10 east of Van Horn, near Orla, sw of Seminole and se of
Wink.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  40  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MDT Friday through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Friday through
     Friday evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
956
FXUS64 KMAF 240144 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
844 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Update to lower PoPs and decreased severe storm potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific cold front and has caught up to the dryline and is
quickly moving east across the area. Limited moisture has
precluded a more serious threat for severe storms and have we
decreased PoPs and removed severe wording. A strong storm or 2 is
still possible mainly across the nrn CWFA until boundary move
east. Still very windy and wind highlights will remain in effect,
in fact they may have to be extended? Later updates for wind will
be needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will veer to the southwest/west at all terminals this
evening, with gusts to 40-50kt common through 06Z. While winds
will diminish somewhat overnight, expect speeds to increase again
by late Friday morning, with gusts to 30-40kt through Friday
afternoon. MVFR conditions in blowing dust are expected for
several hours this evening, with brief IFR conditions possible.
VFR conditions are expected to return overnight, and prevail
through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible at MAF/FST this
evening, however, uncertainty precludes inclusion at this time,
thus will monitor and amend as necessary.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Update for fire weather watch for Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
High end fire weather conditions along with dry fuels are
promoting a high probability of significant fire potential into
early evening across the warned RF area, in fact an outbreak of
fires is possible. Strong winds will continue through at least
mid evening and RH will be slow to recovery. More critical fire
weather is expected Friday and watch has been issued for all
areas.

A Fire Weather Watch for Friday for all areas combined with todays
fire weather will make for a long duration fire weather event.
The strongest winds (albeit much less than today`s) will likely
occur between 15Z-20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is approaching from the west with an upper ridge
over the southeast part of the country. This upper pattern has
resulted in west southwest flow aloft over the area. Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday as
lower heights move over the area. The approach of this upper trough
has contributed to a tightened surface pressure gradient across the
CWA which has resulted in strong winds across the area. High Wind
Warnings are in effect for the western 2/3rds of the CWA and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos for this afternoon into this
evening. Patchy blowing dust will be possible across much of the
area due to the winds.

A surface trough will develop across the Upper Trans Pecos this
afternoon with a dryline developing and tightening up across this
area. Good low-level moisture will be present to the east of the
dryline with strong south to southeast winds. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible along and to the east of this dryline late this
afternoon into tonight. There will be decent CAPE along and just to
the east of the dryline and the bulk shear and mid-level lapse rate
will be very high early this evening. There will also be good upper
level lift over the area so these conditions will aid in severe
weather development. The models are not showing any convection
across the CWA until between 00z and 06z. The storms are expected to
mainly impact southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The hi-resolution models are just
showing convection across the northern border of the CWA. The storms
will pretty much be out of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with the center
of the trough passing over Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas. Strong
upper level winds from the base of the upper trough will mix
downward toward the surface into Friday allowing for high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains so the High Wind Warning for this
area continues through Friday afternoon. Gusty, west winds will be
blowing across the area on Friday associated with a Pacific front
which will allow for temperatures on Friday to be a little cooler
with highs mostly in the 70s. A northerly wind shift will come into
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly shift
back towards the south Saturday afternoon so high temperatures
Saturday will be similar if not a little warmer than those on
Friday. Upper ridging also begins to develop over the region on
Saturday. Another upper trough is expected to move just to the north
of the area on Sunday with the base of the trough moving over the
CWA. This will contribute to gusty west winds Sunday afternoon. A
cold front is expected to move into the area on Monday but
temperatures will not be affected much. Another upper trough will
move over the region sometime during the middle of next week and
models are indicating possible storms Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s are expected in
the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Approaching upper trough and deep surface low have combined to
produce windy conditions with blowing dust across the area. As the
surface trough/Pacific front moves through the wind will swing
around from the south to the west late this afternoon and evening.
20ft winds above 20mph and RH falling below 15 percent expected
along with very high to extreme fire danger.  A Red Flag Warning is
in effect today for all of W TX and SE NM. Cooler temperatures...
higher rh... and less wind Friday with speeds decreasing through the
day.  Could still have some areas reach near critical Friday so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch Friday for SE NM... the Trans Pecos...
and the Davis Mtns. This watch may be expanded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  40  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Dawson-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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  • Fort Worth, TX 76102
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