Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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006
FXUS64 KMAF 040003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain and a few thunderstorms could impact SE New Mexico TAF sites
within the first 3-4 hours of the TAF period this evening, with
brief gusty winds possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period, with southeast
winds increasing to around 12-15kt by late morning on Saturday. A
MVFR deck may try to develop at KINK, KMAF, and KFST Saturday
morning, though have maintained VFR ceilings with only scattered
MVFR due to lower confidence in this scenario.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin this morning with an upper
trough extending down through the Mississippi River Valley.  The
ridge axis will slowly shift east becoming centered over Northern
Mexico by Sunday and then retrograding back to the west by early
Tuesday.  This may allow a strong shortwave to come around the east
side of the ridge and down into the area Tuesday.  Upper low off CA
will come ashore by the middle of next week.

Overall have a Summer time wx pattern with little change in the day
to day wx.  Temperatures will remain below normal the next couple of
days with readings warming in the extended.  Will see highs along
the Rio Grande over 100 next week.  Will have to watch a front next
week that may make it into the northern CWA by early Tuesday...
otherwise S to SE flow will continue.  This will help keep low level
moisture elevated.

Models develop a little rain over the western CWA tonight and again
on Saturday from SE NM down across the higher elevations of W TX.
Already have the start of a few storms developing this afternoon in
SE NM.  Other than Lea county expect very little rain east of the
Pecos River.  Will continue low pops already in the forecast.  MAF
12z sounding showing PW over 1.2 inches... locally heavy rain will
be main concern next several days with slow moving storms and high
moisture.  Best chance for rain looks to be Monday night and
Tuesday with the shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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