Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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025
FXUS64 KMAF 191320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:15 am CDT Sunday...radar continues to show
mainly light shower activity over the western portions of the CWA.
Based on radar imagery and cooling cloud tops per IR imagery have
decided to bump up pops in the west for today. Have kept chc pops
in the east as convective activity in northern Mexico south of
Terrell County is forecast to spread north and northwest today.

Strobin

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have been a little slow developing this morning though
they have made an appearance at INK and FST. Latest satellite
shows low clouds to the south and east expanding into the area
which agrees with model data so will continue to keep BKN010-020
in TAFs this morning. This will lift this afternoon with another
round expected again tonight. There will be isolated TS but
coverage is not great enough to put in the prevailing WX of any
TAF site.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  55  72  54  /  30  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              74  57  76  58  /  30  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  58  72  55  /  30  30  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  79  63  78  62  /  50  20  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  59  74  58  /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  53  68  51  /  30  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   73  55  71  55  /  20  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   74  52  69  52  /  30  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  57  74  57  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  57  74  57  /  30  20  30  30
WINK TX                    75  58  75  58  /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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