Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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338
FXUS64 KMAF 241628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under upper-level
ridging over NE NM. Sfc winds will veer from E to S. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by or shortly after
issuance, w/bases 7-10 kft agl.  No convection expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

The stubborn upper ridge remains parked over southwest and central
portions of the CONUS, via WV satellite this morning. This ridge
will remain the dominate weather feature during this forecast
package, keeping conditions generally hot and dry for most areas.

Above normal temperatures continue today under the influence of the
upper ridge with highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 most
places. A shortwave, moving around the eastern edge of the upper
ridge looks to move over southern portions of the region today. This
wave could provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to help
generate at least isolated convection across the Big Bend region for
this afternoon and evening, especially if dewpoints remain in the
50s. The GFS shows this feature lingering across the south into
Friday and possibly Saturday while the NAM keeps greatest forcing
for ascent further south. Will side with the NAM and keep silent
PoPs beyond this evening.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward
tonight and tomorrow, allowing the intensifying 850mb thermal ridge
to inch further east into the FA Friday and Saturday. Based on 850mb
temps of 29-32C by Saturday, think MOS is too cool and went a degree
or two warmer than guidance through Saturday. Expect highs in the
100-103 degree range to start the weekend with many locations along
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys likely reaching 105-106. Will
continue to see a drying trend over the next few days so heat index
values should remain relatively close to the ambient temperatures
and a Heat Advisory will not be necessary. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, think chances
for rain will be slim to none so will keep the forecast dry through
the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will get a shove back to the west Sunday/Monday
as an upper low digs through the Great Lakes region, establishing
weak northerly flow aloft. This would allow the 850mb thermal
ridge to move back west and give us a little relief from the heat
beginning Sunday, although highs will still be above normal. Could
also see the return of rain chances by mid week with the
possibility of a front approaching NE zones. For now, will keep
the extended dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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