Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 230431
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1011 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
be out of the southwest to west overnight and will become elevated
by 12z.  Winds will continue to increase in strength throughout
the morning with gusts developing.  By 21z, winds will have begun to
shift more towards the northwest and will be nearing 25-30 mph
sustained with higher gusts.  After 00z, winds will weaken and turn
more northerly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add fog to the forecast over portions of the Permian
Basin and western Low Rolling Plains through midnight CST.

DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture has surged westward into the Permian Basin and
western Low Rolling Plains.  This increase in moisture over rain
soaked ground has resulted in the formation of fog, some dense,
which continues to expand slowly westward.  However, surface winds
will veer to the southwest and west through midnight in these areas
and advect drier air into the region.  Therefore, expect fog to
dissipate from west to east with Scurry, Mitchell and Glasscock
counties clearing out midnight, or perhaps 1 am CST at the latest.
Will send an update to add to the forecast for the next few hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A series of equipment failures during this morning`s thunderstorm
activity (and the needed 0.20" of rain) set things back some, but
this is what we know now. The cold core of the upper low sits just
about overhead. With the exit of the strong lower latitude system and
merger over the Midwestern States, strong cyclogenesis will occur,
and that will entail strong northwesterly winds across much of the
Permian Basin, the upper trans Pecos, and the southeastern New
Mexican plains Sunday. We`ve left the high wind watch up for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains areas for now. We`ve also left the
decision to fire up high wind warnings across the plains as well
depending on the strength of the surface pressure gradient. These
winds will subside Sunday night.

After this round of weather...nothing but sunny skies and above
normal temperatures through at least Black Friday. Chances for
precip are about nil and winds will remain out of the west to
northwest. In fact, high temp forecasts for Thanksgiving Day may be
warmer than forecast, if the new incoming data is close to being
correct. A beautiful week, certainly something to be thankful for.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from 5 AM MST Sunday through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday through Sunday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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