Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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824
FXUS64 KMAF 201119
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light and variable winds will become northwesterly as a cold front
moves into the area later this morning.  Winds will become
northeasterly by this evening.  Some elevated and gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening but generally expect winds to be
light.  VFR conditions are expected for most of the period but some
low ceilings may come into the area around 12z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another unseasonably warm day is expected with high temps some 10
degrees above normal as a weak cold front turns warm w-nw surface
winds to the n around/before mid day for areas n of I-20. To the s
of I-20 it will be warmer yet where 85h temps in the mid/upper teens
suggest 75 to 80 in the lower elevations of the Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile mid level flow will amplify starting early Wed as the srn
stream sharpens with a mid level trof across the swrn CONUS. An
initial lead 5h jetlet will quickly trek across nrn Mexico Wed PM
within a steepening lapse rate environment. The net result will be
an increased chance of SHRA/TSRA Wed PM into Thur AM, especially
across the Lower Trans Pecos and s/e PB. Cold air will be re-
enforced early Thur AM in assocn with nrn branch shrtwv trof. For
the most part temps will be above freezing early Thur AM, however
in parts of the nw-ne temps could be near freezing and SN/RA mix
or SN is possible there before 12Z. During the day Thur a closed
low (per GFS/Canadian) will be dropping s along the NM/AZ stateline
as an upstream 70kt 5h speed max helps to dig the low s. There`s
been some indication of the ECMWF trying to catch up to the more
closed soln of GFS/Canadian, but it has not as of the 00Z run.
What is interesting in the GFS/Canadian solutions are their match
to the Type B Heavy Snowfall climatology (digging srn branch
shrtwv trof/closed low from the nw) in the Lower Trans Pecos. Also
early on Thur the CIPS analog guidance does show some matches to
heavy snow events of the past (12/08/88 and 12/21/86) for the wrn
areas suggesting 3 to 6" of snow possible from the Davis to the
GDP Mtns which also fits with the Heavy Snowfall climatology.
There`s very good QPF agreement between the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
Thur PM into Fri AM, but the question is rain or snow? Using 7h
temps and 85h-5h thickness the initial snow levels late Thur PM
will be between 5-6kft in the Davis and around 5kft in the GDP
Mtns then lowering further into the night. Farther s in the Lower
Trans Pecos and by 12Z Fri snow levels look to be between 4-5kft.
Concern for now is whether to issue a Winter Storm Watch for late
Thur PM thru Fri AM from the GDP Mtns to Davis/Glass Mtns. For now
will reflect higher PoPs with higher snowfall grids as Thur night
is just beyond our local threshold for issuance. Not too much of a
concern after Friday except for coolish weather thru Sunday and then
warmer Mon-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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