Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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821
FXUS64 KMAF 240516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A few lingering
showers may persist for a little bit longer at MAF. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will be light and somewhat variable during the overnight
hours and will generally be from the east to southeast Monday
during the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Have updated the forecast to increase PoPs across the Permian
Basin and far southeast New Mexico through this evening based on
current radar trends and latest high-resolution model data. Have
also included mention of heavy rainfall, with the greatest
likelihood across the central Permian Basin, especially in areas
where a combination of slow storm motion and cell training occurs.
Heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding problems.
Updated products out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

Current observations show the cold front is right about where it
was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to
Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into
southeast New Mexico. A broken line of convection is now
developing along the front from Colorado City to Odessa. The fine
resolution models are showing this convection, along with storms
developing in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, increasing in
coverage and providing decent rainfall amounts across the area
through midnight tonight before diminishing. The more course
resolution models (40km and greater) do not show as much coverage
or precipitation amounts which provided some uncertainty in this
forecast package. Obs show a local maximum of dewpoints along the
front better depicted by the more unstable hi-res models so
hopefully we will continue to see an expansion in precip coverage.
The main factor potentially limiting convection will be the
increase in cloud cover decreasing insolation and counteracting
the destabilizing effects of the surface moisture.

Storms will diminish later tonight but more will develop tomorrow
afternoon along the remnants of the lifting front. Convection will
be much more isolated due to less wind and moisture convergence.
The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we
are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New
Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will steadily climb through
the week to well above normal levels and rain chances will greatly
diminish.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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