Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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197
FXUS64 KMAF 210831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      101  72 103  72 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                        101  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  62  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          103  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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