Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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490
FXUS64 KMAF 201112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Southerly to
southwesterly winds will generally be around 12kt or less today,
and will back to the southeast this evening. Winds are expected to
increase and become gusty at MAF and FST after 21/00Z. A few
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, and could potentially
affect area terminals. However, probability is too low to include
mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Positive anomalys within mid level ridging along with sw-w surface
winds will push high temps to records again today. High based
tstms are expected to develop INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and possibly
extend newd into NW PB today where very steep LRs modulate
instability despite limited low level mstr and as a shrtwv trof
move across the area. Strong convective inhibition across the
eastern CWFA will precluded mention tstms there today. On Tue the
convective potential will be farther e/se into the Lower Trans
Pecos and CINH looks to be formidable in the east. More record
high temps are expected again Tue as latest MOS continues to
trend temps higher, this makes since with 85h thermal ridge will
be farther e. A cold front will near the n-ne CWFA around 03Z/Wed
then pushing to around the Pecos River by Wed AM. The front looks
to stall and can still be seen the MSLP pattern across the PB at
03Z/Thur, thus a little cooler Wed. A sharp mid level trof will
back the flow and hold a lee trof in a wwd position during the
day Thur allowing for the dryline to form along a line from
Lamesa-Gardendale-Sanderson, it could be a little farther w?
Models have come into a little better agreement with GFS aligning
moreso with other solutions of holding low level mstr farther w.
West of the dryline it is likely to be very windy with 85h winds
of 35-40kts accompanied by obvious high end fire wx concerns, very
windy e of the dryline too! Wind advisories will probably be
needed (MEX CNM/MAF 38/37kts), high wind for GDP/Davis Mtns. Along
and e of dryline severe storms will be possible. Cooler, but
still windy on Fri. A warming trend will start back on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns continue build for SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos
leading into Thur when high end conditions will be possible,
including the BBNP. A fire effective low level thermal ridge will
be positioned across the mentioned areas and strong wind in the
5-10KFT layer will intersect the thermal ridge. The warmest and
lowest RHs will be found from the wrn PB into the Trans Pecos and
the 10hr-100hr fuels are expected to be very dry. Decision makers
across the SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos are advised to closely follow
the fire wx forecast leading into Thur. There are some similarities
between Thur forecast wx and past cases that resulted in large
problematic fires. Fire wx concerns could extend into Fri as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       92  54  94  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  59 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  60  95  60 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  87  59 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          89  54  91  52 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          85  51  87  50 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  59  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           94  57  96  55 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$