Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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459
FXUS64 KMAF 212055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough diving south thru the PacNW, and
set to amplify and cut off over central CA by Monday afternoon.  As
such, the current NW flow aloft will transition to SW over the next
18 hrs or so.  At the sfc, the cold front that came thru this
morning has resulted in significantly cooler afternoon temps over
yesterday, and should come in just below
normal.

Overnight, PBL winds will veer, and isentropic upglide will
commence, as a stronger secondary cold front currently over the
Central Plains surges into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 17Z Sunday.  RA
should begin developing in from the NE during the morning hours,
increasing throughout the day as isentropic lift strengthens.  After
00Z Monday, CAA surges into the area, w/-10C H85 temps as far south
as KMAF by early Monday morning, and the 0C isotherm down into
Mexico.  Meanwhile, the west coast trough begins sending minor
shortwaves into the region thru SW flow aloft, increasing chances of
precip overnight Sunday and into Monday.  Forecast soundings still
suggest SN can be ruled out, as moisture is generally too shallow.
Where it is sufficiently deep, models keep a warm nose large enough
to completely melt things.  However, the cold, PBL layer persists in
either FZRA or IP...and today`s soundings lean more toward FZRA for
areas generally north of I-10.  Confidence is not high enough to go
total FZRA, especially nrn zones, where the the cold layer thickens
into IP territory at times.  Plus, models differ somewhat on the
thickness of the cold lyr.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of both
FZRA and IP, beginning after 00Z Monday, and continuing thru 18Z
Monday.  Total ice accumulations should remain blo 0.25", except for
portions of the upper Colorado River Valley, namely Borden and
Scurry Counties, which could see a little over 0.25".  For now, we
will be issuing a Winter WX Advisory for all areas north of I-10,
w/an emphasis on FZRA.  If more than 0.25" in the NE persists over
the next few model runs, an upgrade to a Winter Wx Warning may be be
necessary.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will approach and move thru the
region by midweek, w/temps warming thru Wednesday, but remaining blo
normal.  Wednesday night, another cold front is forecast, as another
trough approaches from the Four Corners area.  This looks to be a
repeat of the next several days, w/chances of more precipitation
beginning as soon as Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.
Soundings even hint that moisture may be deep enough for SN.  Stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  43  24  28  /   0  50  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              42  43  24  29  /   0  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                48  53  26  34  /   0  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  54  68  35  37  /   0  40  50  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  64  27  34  /   0  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  56  23  33  /   0  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   39  41  21  32  /   0  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   43  69  24  44  /   0  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  46  22  29  /   0  50  40  30
ODESSA TX                  43  45  25  30  /   0  50  40  30
WINK TX                    46  55  29  37  /   0  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday to Noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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