Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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861
FXUS64 KMAF 262049
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  70  44  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  74  45  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                36  70  41  71  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  75  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  71  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  59  45  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  67  42  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  67  41  67  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  72  44  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  37  72  45  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  72  43  75  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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