Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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815
FXUS64 KMAF 271854
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move through.
Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough to produce
scattered thunderstorms.  There will also be increased moisture to
tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This amount of
moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall for parts
of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  72  94  70  /  10  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              97  75  96  74  /  10  20  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                95  71  95  69  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  72  96  71  /  10  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  88  65  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   93  70  92  67  /  20  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   88  61  87  61  /  10  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  74  96  72  /  10  20  40  40
ODESSA TX                  96  74  94  72  /  10  20  40  40
WINK TX                    99  74  98  73  /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/06

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