Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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995
FXUS64 KMAF 260007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
707 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear skies. A few virga showers possible into
the evening producing erratic gusts. Could see some morning
stratus over Eastern Permian Basin but should stay east of MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A potent shortwave trough responsible for the thunderstorms this
morning has ejected northeastward into Oklahoma, with thunderstorms
having moved well east of the area.  Expect fairly quiet weather
through Tuesday under weak westerly flow aloft with temperatures
warming above normal.  However, another shortwave trough will move
ashore over California Wednesday with the flow aloft over the region
becoming southwesterly.  There are some hints of a shortwave trough
translating over the region Wednesday afternoon, and with near to
above normal temperatures, thunderstorms will be possible along a
sharpening dryline.  For now, will include a slight chance of
storms, and a low order chance Wednesday night mainly over the
western half of the CWA, due to model differences with the timing
and strength of the trough.  If storms develop, some could be severe
as instability, shear and lapse rates will be favorable for strong,
organized convection.

Barring a widespread rain event Wednesday, convection could flourish
over all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday as the base
of the upper trough begins to move over the area.  Will carry the
highest chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night since
the best dynamics will be available then.  Convective parameters
will be very favorable for severe thunderstorm development, so will
include the potential for severe thunderstorms on both Wednesday and
Thursday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).  Although the
base of the ua trough will swing by Thursday night, a pair of
shortwave troughs are progged to drop southeastward around the
southern periphery of the slow moving ua trough over the
southern/central U.S. Plains.  Since we will still be quite warm
both Friday and Saturday, and a dryline will remain over the
region, there will be a chance of scattered thunderstorms each
day.  Conditions appear favorable for more severe thunderstorms,
so will keep a mention in the HWO.

An upper ridge is then progged to build over Mexico, if not west
Texas, late this weekend and keep the region under weak northwest
flow aloft.  So far this Spring, models have been indicating
expansion of an upper ridge several days in advance many times,
but it usually ends up being another upper trough.  Will keep PoPs
to a dull roar after Saturday until we see which of these upper
features comes about.  There some indications a cold front will move
south into the area Friday/Saturday with some cooling for locations
along and north of Interstate 20.  If the cooler temperatures do
make it this far south, would expect readings to rebound to above
normal by Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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