Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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835
FXUS64 KMAF 260658
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers in PEQ are decreasing and tstms concerns are decreasing
across the MAF/FST areas so no mention in TAFs. Most concern will
be winds across CNM/HOB later today when SW-W winds increase to
20-25kts. TSRA may be needed at MAF/FST after 21Z, but too low of
a probability to included ATTP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico is expected to produce isolated
thunderstorms across the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos region
this evening. Confidence was not high enough to mention at
KFST or any of the other terminals. Winds will become southeast
at 15 to 25 mph and gusty at KMAF, KINK, and KFST near sunset.
Winds should diminish and become south at 10 to 15 mph at these
locations by 06z to 09z Thursday. Winds will increase to 15 to
25 mph and gusty at all the terminals by mid to late Thursday
morning and continue Thursday afternoon.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another warm, dry, and breezy day today with moisture largely
confined to far eastern portions of the area ahead of the
advancing dryline. Per latest observations, the dryline has
moved east of Snyder and extends south to near Sterling City
before curving back to the west through eastern Pecos and Brewster
counties. The dryline is not expected to advance east of the Lower
Trans Pecos, thus there is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across Terrell county along the dryline with a slight
chance further west/northwest where storms could develop off of
higher terrain. Some storms, mainly across Terrell county, could
become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. To the west, critical fire
weather conditions will persist through this evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains due to the
warm, windy, and dry conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for details.

Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight as a shortwave moves
across northern Mexico and yields additional forcing as the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Storm chances tonight are
confined mainly along/south of I-10, with guidance suggesting the
potential for storms to grow upscale into an MCS over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and then quickly advance to the southeast. The
dryline will retreat west to the vicinity of the TX/NM state line
overnight, with near normal low temperatures in the 50s to around
60 degrees expected west of the dryline, and above normal lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s to the east.

On Thursday, height falls will begin to overspread the area ahead
of the advancing trough which will be located near the AZ/NM
state line by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler, though given continued southwest flow, downslope warming,
and deep mixing behind the dryline, have maintained highs above
MOS guidance given the continued trend of models under-forecasting
max temperatures. Thunderstorm chances exist along and ahead of
the dryline late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, mainly
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and
Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase overnight
Thursday as the trough begins to eject to the Central Plains and
an accompanying Pacific front moves through the area. Convergence
will be enhanced as the front interacts with the dryline,
resulting in strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

By Friday, moisture will be shunted to the east of the area with
dry conditions expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be closer to
normal in the mid 80s and 90s, with similar conditions expected
Saturday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few thunderstorms
possible across the Lower Trans Pecos as moisture begins to return
to the region. An active pattern looks to return Sunday as the
dryline redevelops over the area, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
through at least midweek next week due to multiple shortwaves in
the flow aloft and continued dryline influence, with temperatures
near to just above normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical conditions continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon, and will persist into
this evening before winds subside. Recovery will be poor again
tonight over these same areas with good recovery expected along
and east of a Maljamar to Fort Stockton to Big Bend line. More
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Thursday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains. The Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau,
Davis Mountains and portions of the northwest Permian Basin may
need to be added to the Watch, but later shifts will have to make
the final call since winds appear borderline right now. Southwest
winds are expected to increase earlier on Thursday so the start
time of the Fire Weather Watch has been backed up to 26/15Z and
will be in effect until 27/03Z. Temperatures will warm around 10
degrees above normal Thursday afternoon, RH/s will drop to 5 to 10
percent and the Haines Index will be 5 or 6 in these areas also.

Poor recovery will occur again Thursday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line. The base of an upper storm system will
move over the region on Friday, and at this time wind speeds do
not appear to be as strong as today or Thursday. Temperatures will
also not be as hot on Friday, but it will still be dry with
minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 10 percent expected areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  89  62 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  54  89  56 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         94  67  95  64 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  60  91  60 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 81  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  53  85  55 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  81  43 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  61  91  60 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         94  61  90  61 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           95  55  93  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT this morning through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning
     through this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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