Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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836
FXUS64 KMAF 192218
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
418 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. WV imagery shows the
upper trough over wrn NM, about to enter far west Texas, preceded
by a line of -SHRA that has just cleared KMAF. Models suggest this
will be it as far as terminals are concerned. Expect cigs to
raise and dissipate as the upper trough scours the area over the
next 18 hours. Sfc flow will veer to NW after 12Z Monday, w/buffer
soundings suggesting a low-based cu field developing before 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over
the region tomorrow.  In its wake high pressure will build over the
area.  The next upper trough will move over the West Coast on
Wednesday and quickly progress east but pass north of the region.
Another strong trough will move ashore Saturday and will have to
watch this one as it approaches on a southern track.

low level moisture flowed into the area this morning with dewpts
into the upper 50s NE with 30s W.  However as of afternoon this
moisture is getting pushed east by a west wind. As of 20z the
dryline has pushed through all but the Scurry/Mitchell county
area. Have had light returns of high based showers on radar for
several hours but these are back in the dry air so most of this
has been evaporating as it falls. Will keep low chance of storms
along and east of an Alpine to Midland line tonight but expect
most storms will form farther east.  There will be the potential
for some severe wx over North... Central... and even South TX
tonight.  The rest of the week looks dry.

With rain exiting the area the main story will be temperatures.
Expect to see readings well above normal this week with 80s
returning by Wednesday.  Thursday looks warm and windy and will
have fire wx concerns developing.  A cold front moves through
Friday knocking highs back into the 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  73  42  76 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  36  79 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  77  47  81 /  50  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  43  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  37  74 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  63  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  72  42  76 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  72  42  76 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  37  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/05/44
521
FXUS64 KMAF 192017
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over
the region tomorrow.  In its wake high pressure will build over the
area.  The next upper trough will move over the West Coast on
Wednesday and quickly progress east but pass north of the region.
Another strong trough will move ashore Saturday and will have to
watch this one as it approaches on a southern track.

low level moisture flowed into the area this morning with dewpts
into the upper 50s NE with 30s W.  However as of afternoon this
moisture is getting pushed east by a west wind. As of 20z the
dryline has pushed through all but the Scurry/Mitchell county
area. Have had light returns of high based showers on radar for
several hours but these are back in the dry air so most of this
has been evaporating as it falls. Will keep low chance of storms
along and east of an Alpine to Midland line tonight but expect
most storms will form farther east.  There will be the potential
for some severe wx over North... Central... and even South TX
tonight.  The rest of the week looks dry.

With rain exiting the area the main story will be temperatures.
Expect to see readings well above normal this week with 80s
returning by Wednesday.  Thursday looks warm and windy and will
have fire wx concerns developing.  A cold front moves through
Friday knocking highs back into the 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  73  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  77  47  81 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  63  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  72  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  72  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  37  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
906
FXUS64 KMAF 191641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions, with an abundance of mid and high clouds, are
expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the
next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across west
Texas through tonight but coverage appears to be too low to
include at any terminals. Winds will generally be west to
southwest at 10 to 15 mph, with some higher gusts this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud cover will spread over the region today, along
with westerly surface winds, some of which will be gusty.  VFR
conditions will prevail through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue
to move east today. Unfortunately, most of the moisture that has
returned this morning will be shoved east soon by a lead mid
level shortwave. Will keep some isolated PoPs in across the area,
but not expecting much today. Extra cloud cover will won`t help
keep temperatures down much with highs still forecasted to be well
above normal.

Look for quiet, dry conditions to start the new week after the
passage of this system. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures
on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through
midweek. Soon after, another trough will move across the Rockies
inducing a strong surface low over the Plains Thursday. While this
system won`t bring any rain, it will bring plenty of wind and
fire weather. A cold front on Friday will bring temperatures down
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  45  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  41  72  37 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  49  76  47 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  46  72  45 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  60  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  39  69  37 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  33  63  29 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  45  72  41 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  45  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           70  39  73  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
451
FXUS64 KMAF 191102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud cover will spread over the region today, along
with westerly surface winds, some of which will be gusty.  VFR
conditions will prevail through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue
to move east today. Unfortunately, most of the moisture that has
returned this morning will be shoved east soon by a lead mid
level shortwave. Will keep some isolated PoPs in across the area,
but not expecting much today. Extra cloud cover will won`t help
keep temperatures down much with highs still forecasted to be well
above normal.

Look for quiet, dry conditions to start the new week after the
passage of this system. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures
on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through
midweek. Soon after, another trough will move across the Rockies
inducing a strong surface low over the Plains Thursday. While this
system won`t bring any rain, it will bring plenty of wind and
fire weather. A cold front on Friday will bring temperatures down
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  45  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  41  72  37 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  49  76  47 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  46  72  45 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  60  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  39  69  37 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  33  63  29 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  45  72  41 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  45  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           70  39  73  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
828
FXUS64 KMAF 190949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue
to move east today. Unfortunately, most of the moisture that has
returned this morning will be shoved east soon by a lead mid
level shortwave. Will keep some isolated PoPs in across the area,
but not expecting much today. Extra cloud cover will won`t help
keep temperatures down much with highs still forecasted to be well
above normal.


Look for quiet, dry conditions to start the new week after the
passage of this system. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures
on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through
midweek. Soon after, another trough will move across the Rockies
inducing a strong surface low over the Plains Thursday. While this
system won`t bring any rain, it will bring plenty of wind and
fire weather. A cold front on Friday will bring temperatures down
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  45  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  41  72  37 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  49  76  47 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  46  72  45 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  60  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  39  69  37 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  33  63  29 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  45  72  41 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  45  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           70  39  73  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
909
FXUS64 KMAF 190335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/mostly BKN-OVC mid/high
clouds. Return flow will veer to SW after sunrise Sunday,
becoming gusty in the afternoon. A few cu will be possible late
afternoon invof KINK/KPEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper
trough moving off the West Coast.  This trough develops into a cut
off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.  This
trough will open up and slowly push east Sunday with the ridge
beginning to return by late Monday.  On Wednesday the next upper
trough moves off the coast and quickly moves east crossing the
Rockies Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm this week with highs generally in the 70s
and may hit 80s by midweek.  The normal high temperature for this
time of year in the Permian Basin is 63 so the week looks to be well
above normal.  A front late in the week will knock temps back down
into the 60s.

The development of a leeside trough will turn surface flow back to
the south with the return of low level moisture expected.  Current
dewpts are in the 20s and 30s as of 18z... these should increase to
the 40s to low 50s across the east overnight.  Could see some patchy
fog over the east tomorrow morning.  A dryline is expected to
develop tomorrow and push the moisture east ahead of it.  There is a
low chance of storms developing on the dryline tomorrow over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos... but most of these
will be east of the area.  Could see strong to severe storms for
North and Central TX tomorrow.

A west wind will kick in tomorrow behind the dryline.  Should be
windy through GDP but stay below high wind criteria... did bump up
speeds a bit in the afternoon.  Could have some fire wx concerns
west of the dryline

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  72  45  73 /   0  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  70  41  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  75  50  76 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  52  73  44  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  57  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  67  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          39  63  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  73  43  72 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         51  73  43  73 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           49  73  42  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44/44
973
FXUS64 KMAF 190249
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
849 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Sat imagery shows high clouds increasing across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, which will inhibit rad cooling overnight.
00Z NAM forecast soundings suggest overnight mins can be raised a
couple of degrees. In addition, area radars show returns
increasing out west, and some -SHRA may make it into far western
zones before 12Z. Thus, we`ll do an update to add this, bump up
overnight mins, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/mostly OVC high
clouds. Return flow will veer to SW after sunrise Sunday, becoming
gusty in the afternoon. A few cu will be possible late afternoon
invof KCNM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper
trough moving off the West Coast.  This trough develops into a cut
off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.  This
trough will open up and slowly push east Sunday with the ridge
beginning to return by late Monday.  On Wednesday the next upper
trough moves off the coast and quickly moves east crossing the
Rockies Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm this week with highs generally in the 70s
and may hit 80s by midweek.  The normal high temperature for this
time of year in the Permian Basin is 63 so the week looks to be well
above normal.  A front late in the week will knock temps back down
into the 60s.

The development of a leeside trough will turn surface flow back to
the south with the return of low level moisture expected.  Current
dewpts are in the 20s and 30s as of 18z... these should increase to
the 40s to low 50s across the east overnight.  Could see some patchy
fog over the east tomorrow morning.  A dryline is expected to
develop tomorrow and push the moisture east ahead of it.  There is a
low chance of storms developing on the dryline tomorrow over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos... but most of these
will be east of the area.  Could see strong to severe storms for
North and Central TX tomorrow.

A west wind will kick in tomorrow behind the dryline.  Should be
windy through GDP but stay below high wind criteria... did bump up
speeds a bit in the afternoon.  Could have some fire wx concerns
west of the dryline

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  72  45  73 /   0  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  70  41  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  75  50  76 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  52  73  44  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  57  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  67  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          39  63  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  73  43  72 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         51  73  43  73 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           49  73  42  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44/44
329
FXUS64 KMAF 182241
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
441 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/mostly OVC high
clouds. Return flow will veer to SW after sunrise Sunday, becoming
gusty in the afternoon. A few cu will be possible late afternoon
invof KCNM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper
trough moving off the West Coast.  This trough develops into a cut
off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.  This
trough will open up and slowly push east Sunday with the ridge
beginning to return by late Monday.  On Wednesday the next upper
trough moves off the coast and quickly moves east crossing the
Rockies Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm this week with highs generally in the 70s
and may hit 80s by midweek.  The normal high temperature for this
time of year in the Permian Basin is 63 so the week looks to be well
above normal.  A front late in the week will knock temps back down
into the 60s.

The development of a leeside trough will turn surface flow back to
the south with the return of low level moisture expected.  Current
dewpts are in the 20s and 30s as of 18z... these should increase to
the 40s to low 50s across the east overnight.  Could see some patchy
fog over the east tomorrow morning.  A dryline is expected to
develop tomorrow and push the moisture east ahead of it.  There is a
low chance of storms developing on the dryline tomorrow over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos... but most of these
will be east of the area.  Could see strong to severe storms for
North and Central TX tomorrow.

A west wind will kick in tomorrow behind the dryline.  Should be
windy through GDP but stay below high wind criteria... did bump up
speeds a bit in the afternoon.  Could have some fire wx concerns
west of the dryline

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  72  45  73 /  10  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  70  41  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  75  50  76 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  50  73  44  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  57  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  67  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          38  63  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  73  43  72 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  73  43  73 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           47  73  42  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44/44
816
FXUS64 KMAF 181952
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper
trough moving off the West Coast.  This trough develops into a cut
off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.  This
trough will open up and slowly push east Sunday with the ridge
beginning to return by late Monday.  On Wednesday the next upper
trough moves off the coast and quickly moves east crossing the
Rockies Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm this week with highs generally in the 70s
and may hit 80s by midweek.  The normal high temperature for this
time of year in the Permian Basin is 63 so the week looks to be well
above normal.  A front late in the week will knock temps back down
into the 60s.

The development of a leeside trough will turn surface flow back to
the south with the return of low level moisture expected.  Current
dewpts are in the 20s and 30s as of 18z... these should increase to
the 40s to low 50s across the east overnight.  Could see some patchy
fog over the east tomorrow morning.  A dryline is expected to
develop tomorrow and push the moisture east ahead of it.  There is a
low chance of storms developing on the dryline tomorrow over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos... but most of these
will be east of the area.  Could see strong to severe storms for
North and Central TX tomorrow.

A west wind will kick in tomorrow behind the dryline.  Should be
windy through GDP but stay below high wind criteria... did bump up
speeds a bit in the afternoon.  Could have some fire wx concerns
west of the dryline

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  72  45  73 /  10  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  70  41  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  75  50  76 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  50  73  44  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  57  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  67  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          38  63  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  73  43  72 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  73  43  73 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           47  73  42  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
083
FXUS64 KMAF 181648
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1048 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the
next 24 hours. Winds will generally be 10 mph or less through
tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today and tonight.  High
clouds will spread over the region while westerly winds become
east to southeast tonight, mainly around 10kt sustained.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

Get out and enjoy as upper ridging will give us a quiet, warm day
today with temperatures well above normal. An upper trough along the
West Coast will continue to move east today after dropping heavy
rain and snow across CA. Moisture will make a return to the area
tonight as strong southerly flow develops. A dryline will set up
over the area and begin to move east Sunday morning in response to a
shortwave. Even though we will see deep southerly flow in the mid
levels, this shortwave will likely push any moisture quickly east
by midday Sunday. Will keep some low PoPs in, but it doesn`t look
like we`ll see much precip from this system.

As the upper trough moves east of the area, weak upper ridging will
build back in early next week. Temperatures will cool slightly
Sunday and Monday, but rebound quickly well above normal thereafter.
Another upper trough will develop over the Rockies midweek and lift
into the Plains Thursday. This system will bring strong winds and a
high fire danger to much of the S. Plains. A cold front will send
temperatures back toward normal late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  52  71  46 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       74  46  66  42 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         79  53  74  48 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  79  52  71  45 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  42  55  37 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          73  45  65  41 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          70  37  62  37 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           76  52  69  44 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         76  52  69  44 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           76  48  69  43 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
151
FXUS64 KMAF 181041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
441 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today and tonight.  High
clouds will spread over the region while westerly winds become
east to southeast tonight, mainly around 10kt sustained.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

Get out and enjoy as upper ridging will give us a quiet, warm day
today with temperatures well above normal. An upper trough along the
West Coast will continue to move east today after dropping heavy
rain and snow across CA. Moisture will make a return to the area
tonight as strong southerly flow develops. A dryline will set up
over the area and begin to move east Sunday morning in response to a
shortwave. Even though we will see deep southerly flow in the mid
levels, this shortwave will likely push any moisture quickly east
by midday Sunday. Will keep some low PoPs in, but it doesn`t look
like we`ll see much precip from this system.

As the upper trough moves east of the area, weak upper ridging will
build back in early next week. Temperatures will cool slightly
Sunday and Monday, but rebound quickly well above normal thereafter.
Another upper trough will develop over the Rockies midweek and lift
into the Plains Thursday. This system will bring strong winds and a
high fire danger to much of the S. Plains. A cold front will send
temperatures back toward normal late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  52  71  46 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       74  46  66  42 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         79  53  74  48 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  79  52  71  45 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  42  55  37 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          73  45  65  41 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          70  37  62  37 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           76  52  69  44 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         76  52  69  44 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           76  48  69  43 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
382
FXUS64 KMAF 180935
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
335 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Get out and enjoy as upper ridging will give us a quiet, warm day
today with temperatures well above normal. An upper trough along the
West Coast will continue to move east today after dropping heavy
rain and snow across CA. Moisture will make a return to the area
tonight as strong southerly flow develops. A dryline will set up
over the area and begin to move east Sunday morning in response to a
shortwave. Even though we will see deep southerly flow in the mid
levels, this shortwave will likely push any moisture quickly east
by midday Sunday. Will keep some low PoPs in, but it doesn`t look
like we`ll see much precip from this system.

As the upper trough moves east of the area, weak upper ridging will
build back in early next week. Temperatures will cool slightly
Sunday and Monday, but rebound quickly well above normal thereafter.
Another upper trough will develop over the Rockies midweek and lift
into the Plains Thursday. This system will bring strong winds and a
high fire danger to much of the S. Plains. A cold front will send
temperatures back toward normal late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  52  71  46 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       74  46  66  42 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         79  53  74  48 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  79  52  71  45 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  42  55  37 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          73  45  65  41 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          70  37  62  37 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           76  52  69  44 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         76  52  69  44 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           76  48  69  43 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
552
FXUS64 KMAF 180320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
920 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds.
Westerly flow will back Saturday to SW, then SE return flow after
sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 823 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest obs show winds across the CWA have fallen below criteria,
so warnings/advisories have been allowed to expire. We`ll do a
quick update to remove warnings/advisories, and to update other
parameters as necessary based on latest obs and model data.
Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Friday...Strong winds continue
along and west of the Pecos River.

Satl imagery indc that the upper low in Northeast Texas continues
to move northeast. As the low continues to pull away the winds
will diminish rapidly after sunset. All High Wind
Warnings/Advisories will be expiring early this evening.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a potent system moving into CA will
move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. This will bring
warmer temps and dry conditions.

The system moving onshore will weaken and elongate as it moves
through the Southern Rockies. Unidirectional flow will advect low
level moisture from the south into the eastern portions of the CWA
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However...it appears
that the H7 and H85 flow will become southwest Sunday morning
advecting this moisture east. 12Z models and the 15Z SREF are
developing a dryline/Pacific front either in the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA or east of the CWA on Sunday. Have removed
most PoPs from Sunday`s fcst...except for slight chc in the
extreme east. As of now convective parameters are indc that the
strongest convection will be to the east of the CWA.

Ridging will build east into the Southern Plains Monday-Wednesday
leading to warm and dry weather for the CWA. A strong system
moving into the Pacific NW/Northern CA will move across the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. This has the potential to bring
widespread strong winds to the CWA toward the end of next week.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm
mst/6pm cst for Southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. RH
values have slowly been falling this afternoon as temperatures
rise and should go below 15 percent. Combine this with a gusty
west wind with 20ft wind speeds well above 20 mph and the result
will be critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening ending the short term fire weather concerns.
Lower wind speeds expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       45  74  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         48  79  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  48  80  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  64  40  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          43  74  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          37  70  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           47  77  51  70 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         46  76  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           45  77  50  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44/44
972
FXUS64 KMAF 180223
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
823 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs show winds across the CWA have fallen below criteria,
so warnings/advisories have been allowed to expire. We`ll do a
quick update to remove warnings/advisories, and to update other
parameters as necessary based on latest obs and model data.
Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Friday...Strong winds continue
along and west of the Pecos River.

Satl imagery indc that the upper low in Northeast Texas continues
to move northeast. As the low continues to pull away the winds
will diminish rapidly after sunset. All High Wind
Warnings/Advisories will be expiring early this evening.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a potent system moving into CA will
move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. This will bring
warmer temps and dry conditions.

The system moving onshore will weaken and elongate as it moves
through the Southern Rockies. Unidirectional flow will advect low
level moisture from the south into the eastern portions of the CWA
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However...it appears
that the H7 and H85 flow will become southwest Sunday morning
advecting this moisture east. 12Z models and the 15Z SREF are
developing a dryline/Pacific front either in the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA or east of the CWA on Sunday. Have removed
most PoPs from Sunday`s fcst...except for slight chc in the
extreme east. As of now convective parameters are indc that the
strongest convection will be to the east of the CWA.

Ridging will build east into the Southern Plains Monday-Wednesday
leading to warm and dry weather for the CWA. A strong system
moving into the Pacific NW/Northern CA will move across the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. This has the potential to bring
widespread strong winds to the CWA toward the end of next week.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm
mst/6pm cst for Southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. RH
values have slowly been falling this afternoon as temperatures
rise and should go below 15 percent. Combine this with a gusty
west wind with 20ft wind speeds well above 20 mph and the result
will be critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening ending the short term fire weather concerns.
Lower wind speeds expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  77  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       47  74  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         49  79  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  50  80  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  64  40  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  74  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  70  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  51  70 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         48  76  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           47  77  50  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44
767
FXUS64 KMAF 180031
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.FIRE WEATHER...

Current obs show no Red Flag conditions across the area. We`ll do
a quick update to zero out the RFW.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Friday...Strong winds continue
along and west of the Pecos River.

Satl imagery indc that the upper low in Northeast Texas continues
to move northeast. As the low continues to pull away the winds
will diminish rapidly after sunset. All High Wind
Warnings/Advisories will be expiring early this evening.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a potent system moving into CA will
move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. This will bring
warmer temps and dry conditions.

The system moving onshore will weaken and elongate as it moves
through the Southern Rockies. Unidirectional flow will advect low
level moisture from the south into the eastern portions of the CWA
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However...it appears
that the H7 and H85 flow will become southwest Sunday morning
advecting this moisture east. 12Z models and the 15Z SREF are
developing a dryline/Pacific front either in the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA or east of the CWA on Sunday. Have removed
most PoPs from Sunday`s fcst...except for slight chc in the
extreme east. As of now convective parameters are indc that the
strongest convection will be to the east of the CWA.

Ridging will build east into the Southern Plains Monday-Wednesday
leading to warm and dry weather for the CWA. A strong system
moving into the Pacific NW/Northern CA will move across the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. This has the potential to bring
widespread strong winds to the CWA toward the end of next week.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm
mst/6pm cst for Southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. RH
values have slowly been falling this afternoon as temperatures
rise and should go below 15 percent. Combine this with a gusty
west wind with 20ft wind speeds well above 20 mph and the result
will be critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening ending the short term fire weather concerns.
Lower wind speeds expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  77  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       47  74  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         49  79  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  50  80  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  64  40  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  74  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  70  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  51  70 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         48  76  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           47  77  50  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward.

&&

$$

44/44
363
FXUS64 KMAF 172228
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
428 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds.
Westerly flow will back slightly Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Friday...Strong winds continue
along and west of the Pecos River.

Satl imagery indc that the upper low in Northeast Texas continues
to move northeast. As the low continues to pull away the winds
will diminish rapidly after sunset. All High Wind
Warnings/Advisories will be expiring early this evening.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a potent system moving into CA will
move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. This will bring
warmer temps and dry conditions.

The system moving onshore will weaken and elongate as it moves
through the Southern Rockies. Unidirectional flow will advect low
level moisture from the south into the eastern portions of the CWA
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However...it appears
that the H7 and H85 flow will become southwest Sunday morning
advecting this moisture east. 12Z models and the 15Z SREF are
developing a dryline/Pacific front either in the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA or east of the CWA on Sunday. Have removed
most PoPs from Sunday`s fcst...except for slight chc in the
extreme east. As of now convective parameters are indc that the
strongest convection will be to the east of the CWA.

Ridging will build east into the Southern Plains Monday-Wednesday
leading to warm and dry weather for the CWA. A strong system
moving into the Pacific NW/Northern CA will move across the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. This has the potential to bring
widespread strong winds to the CWA toward the end of next week.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm
mst/6pm cst for Southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. RH
values have slowly been falling this afternoon as temperatures
rise and should go below 15 percent. Combine this with a gusty
west wind with 20ft wind speeds well above 20 mph and the result
will be critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening ending the short term fire weather concerns.
Lower wind speeds expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  77  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       47  74  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         49  79  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  50  80  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  64  40  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  74  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  70  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  51  70 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         48  76  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           47  77  50  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Southeast
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Crane-Loving-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/44/44
919
FXUS64 KMAF 172007
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Friday...Strong winds continue
along and west of the Pecos River.

Satl imagery indc that the upper low in Northeast Texas continues
to move northeast. As the low continues to pull away the winds
will diminish rapidly after sunset. All High Wind
Warnings/Advisories will be expiring early this evening.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a potent system moving into CA will
move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. This will bring
warmer temps and dry conditions.

The system moving onshore will weaken and elongate as it moves
through the Southern Rockies. Unidirectional flow will advect low
level moisture from the south into the eastern portions of the CWA
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However...it appears
that the H7 and H85 flow will become southwest Sunday morning
advecting this moisture east. 12Z models and the 15Z SREF are
developing a dryline/Pacific front either in the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA or east of the CWA on Sunday. Have removed
most PoPs from Sunday`s fcst...except for slight chc in the
extreme east. As of now convective parameters are indc that the
strongest convection will be to the east of the CWA.

Ridging will build east into the Southern Plains Monday-Wednesday
leading to warm and dry weather for the CWA. A strong system
moving into the Pacific NW/Northern CA will move across the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. This has the potential to bring
widespread strong winds to the CWA toward the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm
mst/6pm cst for Southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. RH
values have slowly been falling this afternoon as temperatures
rise and should go below 15 percent. Combine this with a gusty
west wind with 20ft wind speeds well above 20 mph and the result
will be critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening ending the short term fire weather concerns.
Lower wind speeds expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  77  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       47  74  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         49  79  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  50  80  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  64  40  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  74  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  70  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  51  70 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         48  76  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           47  77  50  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Southeast
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Crane-Loving-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

72/33
170
FXUS64 KMAF 171748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have upper low moving over TX today with a deep surface low along
the TX/NM border. This has resulted in a gusty west wind with
gusts over 30kts that will continue through the afternoon before
decreasing around sunset. Otherwise will be VFR with some mid/high
clouds increasing from the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Very warm temperatures and high fire danger will round out the work
week before a chance of storms enters the picture this weekend.

An upper low directly overhead this morning will continue to shift
northeast through the day. Subsidence on the back side of this
system and a developing surface low over the Texas South Plains will
lead to a warm, windy afternoon. Downsloping winds will bring lower
dewpoints in from the west while also allowing temperatures to climb
well into the 70`s. Strong mid-level winds across the higher terrain
will attempt to mix to the surface. This will lead to high winds across
both the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory
conditions in the adjacent plains. Fire danger will also become
critical especially across the Trans Pecos. Please see the Fire
AFD below.

We start the weekend on a warm note and look west at our next storm
system. An intense upper trough bringing flooding rains and heavy
snow to CA today will move east toward our region. While low level
moisture is still expected to move into the area Saturday night and
Sunday, it looks like it will be rather shallow. Models have trended
much lower with QPF as they now shove the dryline quickly east
across our area Sunday morning. Much of our CWA would remain dry if
this solution verifies. Backed flow in the mid levels would
suggest a further west dryline so we will see. If the dryline is
further west, eastern portions of the Permian Basin could see some
strong storms Sunday afternoon.

Once the weekend system passes, we should see quiet, although very
warm conditions into midweek. Another upper trough will develop over
the Rockies late next week before lifting into the Plains. Models
are beginning to indicate this system could bring very windy
conditions with a high fire danger in about a week. Stay tuned.

FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
along and either side of the Pecos River in west Texas.  West to
northwest winds will be fairly strong, 20 to 35 mph sustained with
gusts around 45 mph, and even stronger farther west across the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and other higher terrain.  High
clouds will help keep temperatures down from the Guadalupes to the
Davis Mountains, which in turn will prevent RH/s from dropping below
15 percent.  However, along the Pecos River, there will be more
sunshine, warmer temperatures and minimum afternoon RH/s around 15
percent.  Since these areas did not see much rainfall in the last
week, fire danger will be high, if not very high, and will issue a
Red Flag Warning along the Pecos River in west Texas, except Terrell
County, between 17/18Z-18/00Z.

winds will diminish this evening and help alleviate fire weather
concerns.  Recovery will be fair over portions of the Permian Basin
and Upper Trans Pecos tonight, and good elsewhere.  Minimum
afternoon RH/s will not be quite as low Saturday, and definitely not
Sunday as moisture returns to the region, and perhaps rain chances
will increase Sunday too.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  76  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  63  44 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          72  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  47  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  47  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Southeast
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Crane-Loving-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
560
FXUS64 KMAF 171057
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
457 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today, however west to northwest winds
will strengthen and become gusty by late morning at all area
terminals.  KMAF and KHOB will likely see the lowest sustained winds
around 20kt, with the others rising to 25kt or a little higher, and
gusts as high as 35kt.  Winds will diminish around 18/01Z, with VFR
continuing overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Very warm temperatures and high fire danger will round out the work
week before a chance of storms enters the picture this weekend.

An upper low directly overhead this morning will continue to shift
northeast through the day. Subsidence on the back side of this
system and a developing surface low over the Texas South Plains will
lead to a warm, windy afternoon. Downsloping winds will bring lower
dewpoints in from the west while also allowing temperatures to climb
well into the 70`s. Strong mid-level winds across the higher terrain
will attempt to mix to the surface. This will lead to high winds across
both the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory
conditions in the adjacent plains. Fire danger will also become
critical especially across the Trans Pecos. Please see the Fire
AFD below.

We start the weekend on a warm note and look west at our next storm
system. An intense upper trough bringing flooding rains and heavy
snow to CA today will move east toward our region. While low level
moisture is still expected to move into the area Saturday night and
Sunday, it looks like it will be rather shallow. Models have trended
much lower with QPF as they now shove the dryline quickly east
across our area Sunday morning. Much of our CWA would remain dry if
this solution verifies. Backed flow in the mid levels would
suggest a further west dryline so we will see. If the dryline is
further west, eastern portions of the Permian Basin could see some
strong storms Sunday afternoon.

Once the weekend system passes, we should see quiet, although very
warm conditions into midweek. Another upper trough will develop over
the Rockies late next week before lifting into the Plains. Models
are beginning to indicate this system could bring very windy
conditions with a high fire danger in about a week. Stay tuned.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
along and either side of the Pecos River in west Texas.  West to
northwest winds will be fairly strong, 20 to 35 mph sustained with
gusts around 45 mph, and even stronger farther west across the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and other higher terrain.  High
clouds will help keep temperatures down from the Guadalupes to the
Davis Mountains, which in turn will prevent RH/s from dropping below
15 percent.  However, along the Pecos River, there will be more
sunshine, warmer temperatures and minimum afternoon RH/s around 15
percent.  Since these areas did not see much rainfall in the last
week, fire danger will be high, if not very high, and will issue a
Red Flag Warning along the Pecos River in west Texas, except Terrell
County, between 17/18Z-18/00Z.

winds will diminish this evening and help alleviate fire weather
concerns.  Recovery will be fair over portions of the Permian Basin
and Upper Trans Pecos tonight, and good elsewhere.  Minimum
afternoon RH/s will not be quite as low Saturday, and definitely not
Sunday as moisture returns to the region, and perhaps rain chances
will increase Sunday too.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  76  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  63  44 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          72  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  47  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  47  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     Crane-Loving-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening
     for Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM
     CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29
136
FXUS64 KMAF 170953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
353 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Very warm temperatures and high fire danger will round out the work
week before a chance of storms enters the picture this weekend.

An upper low directly overhead this morning will continue to shift
northeast through the day. Subsidence on the back side of this
system and a developing surface low over the Texas South Plains will
lead to a warm, windy afternoon. Downsloping winds will bring lower
dewpoints in from the west while also allowing temperatures to climb
well into the 70`s. Strong mid-level winds across the higher terrain
will attempt to mix to the surface. This will lead to high winds across
both the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory
conditions in the adjacent plains. Fire danger will also become
critical especially across the Trans Pecos. Please see the Fire
AFD below.

We start the weekend on a warm note and look west at our next storm
system. An intense upper trough bringing flooding rains and heavy
snow to CA today will move east toward our region. While low level
moisture is still expected to move into the area Saturday night and
Sunday, it looks like it will be rather shallow. Models have trended
much lower with QPF as they now shove the dryline quickly east
across our area Sunday morning. Much of our CWA would remain dry if
this solution verifies. Backed flow in the mid levels would
suggest a further west dryline so we will see. If the dryline is
further west, eastern portions of the Permian Basin could see some
strong storms Sunday afternoon.

Once the weekend system passes, we should see quiet, although very
warm conditions into midweek. Another upper trough will develop over
the Rockies late next week before lifting into the Plains. Models
are beginning to indicate this system could bring very windy
conditions with a high fire danger in about a week. Stay tuned.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
along and either side of the Pecos River in west Texas.  West to
northwest winds will be fairly strong, 20 to 35 mph sustained with
gusts around 45 mph, and even stronger farther west across the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and other higher terrain.  High
clouds will help keep temperatures down from the Guadalupes to the
Davis Mountains, which in turn will prevent RH/s from dropping below
15 percent.  However, along the Pecos River, there will be more
sunshine, warmer temperatures and minimum afternoon RH/s around 15
percent.  Since these areas did not see much rainfall in the last
week, fire danger will be high, if not very high, and will issue a
Red Flag Warning along the Pecos River in west Texas, except Terrell
County, between 17/18Z-18/00Z.

winds will diminish this evening and help alleviate fire weather
concerns.  Recovery will be fair over portions of the Permian Basin
and Upper Trans Pecos tonight, and good elsewhere.  Minimum
afternoon RH/s will not be quite as low Saturday, and definitely not
Sunday as moisture returns to the region, and perhaps rain chances
will increase Sunday too.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  76  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  63  44 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          72  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  47  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  47  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     Crane-Loving-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening
     for Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM
     CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29
419
FXUS64 KMAF 170429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1029 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
S-SW winds are mostly 10kts or less will remain so thru tonight,
except stronger at FST. High clouds are moving east with only
FEW200 remaining. Of more interest is the increase in winds
around 18Z Fri, sustained winds ranging from around 19kts at HOB
to 28kt at PEQ. High winds will be possible across the mtns and
severe turbulence can be expected for light low flying aircraft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  75  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
355
FXUS64 KMAF 162313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
S-SW winds mostly 10kts or less tonight, except strong at FST.
High clouds will move e this evening. Of more interest is the
increase in winds around 18Z Fri, sustained winds ranging from
around 19kts at HOB to 28kt at PEQ. High winds will be possible
across the mtns and severe turbulence can be expected for light
low flying aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 1:45 PM CST Thursday...continued dry with
temps becoming above normal into Saturday.

An upper low centered over Northern Sinaloa Mexico will move
northeast right over the CWA tonight. Due to this feature being
moisture starved it will have little sensible impact on our
weather. Ridging will build over the area ahead of a strong trof
moving into Southern and Central CA. Have kept the High Wind Watch
for the Guadalupe Mtns for Friday. While the mid level flow not
impressive and the Watch is marginal...the favorable sfc flow
from the west is convincing enough to keep it going.

After dry and warm weather Friday/Saturday the upper trough moving
into CA will elongate as it moves east. Low level return flow will
bring an increase in moisture with dew pts in the 50s across most
of the CWA Sat night/Sunday. It appears that a Dry line/Pacific
front will develop on Sunday. Based on the 12Z GFS/ECMWF model
runs it appears that the majority of the strong convection will be
east of the CWA. The 15Z SREF run keeps the best instability to
the east of the CWA as well. However...being several days out have
kept the pops as is. If convection does form in our CWA it could
be strong to marginally severe. With the vertical wind profile
being basically unidirectional (from the south) the main threat
would be heavy rain...however marginally severe hail can`t be
ruled out.

The upper trough slowly moves east of the CWA Monday with ridging
building into the Southern Plains Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the
next upper trough crashing into the Pacific NW/Northern CA Coast.
This trough will move across the Central Plains next Thursday/
Friday. As of now...it looks like the CWA will be in for dry
weather and strong winds the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  75  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
669
FXUS64 KMAF 161952
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 1:45 PM CST Thursday...continued dry with
temps becoming above normal into Saturday.

An upper low centered over Northern Sinaloa Mexico will move
northeast right over the CWA tonight. Due to this feature being
moisture starved it will have little sensible impact on our
weather. Ridging will build over the area ahead of a strong trof
moving into Southern and Central CA. Have kept the High Wind Watch
for the Guadalupe Mtns for Friday. While the mid level flow not
impressive and the Watch is marginal...the favorable sfc flow
from the west is convincing enough to keep it going.

After dry and warm weather Friday/Saturday the upper trough moving
into CA will elongate as it moves east. Low level return flow will
bring an increase in moisture with dew pts in the 50s across most
of the CWA Sat night/Sunday. It appears that a Dry line/Pacific
front will develop on Sunday. Based on the 12Z GFS/ECMWF model
runs it appears that the majority of the strong convection will be
east of the CWA. The 15Z SREF run keeps the best instability to
the east of the CWA as well. However...being several days out have
kept the pops as is. If convection does form in our CWA it could
be strong to marginally severe. With the vertical wind profile
being basically unidirectional (from the south) the main threat
would be heavy rain...however marginally severe hail can`t be
ruled out.

The upper trough slowly moves east of the CWA Monday with ridging
building into the Southern Plains Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the
next upper trough crashing into the Pacific NW/Northern CA Coast.
This trough will move across the Central Plains next Thursday/
Friday. As of now...it looks like the CWA will be in for dry
weather and strong winds the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  75  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/33
770
FXUS64 KMAF 161715
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1115 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated out of the south to southwest this afternoon then weaken
tonight before becoming elevated and gusty out of the west by 18z
Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Sunny, mild conditions expected the next several days before
thunderstorms enter the forecast this weekend.

A piece of the upper trough from the system that affected the area
this weekend has now developed into a cut-off low over Mexico.
Even with this system being in close vicinity, and moving directly
overhead tonight, low level moisture has been scoured out by a
recent cold front. While clouds will increase across the area
today and a shower is possible along the Rio Grande, you
shouldn`t notice much else. Temperatures will warm another 10
degrees or so today as southwesterly winds kick in. Even warmer
conditions will be had Friday under mid level subsidence as the
upper low pulls away from our region. A surface low will also
develop over the Texas High Plains helping to pull in lower
dewpoints that reside to our west. Dry air will combine with
increasing winds to elevate the fire danger across the western
half of the CWA Friday afternoon. Mid level winds don`t look too
impressive, but we could still see sustained winds near 20 mph
along and west of the Pecos River. Guidance continues to show high
winds possible across the Guadalupe Mountains, although very
meager by their standards. Will issue a High Wind Watch with
sustained winds near 50 mph possible Friday afternoon in these
higher elevations. A Wind Advisory may also be needed for the
Davis Mountains and adjacent plains during the same period.

Attention then turns to a vigorous upper storm system that will
slam into the West Coast Saturday. After dropping huge amounts of
rain and snow over the SW U.S. the upper trough will move east
toward our area. The first effects we will see from this system
will be increasing southerly flow at the surface and rich, low-
level Gulf moisture streaming in across the region. Low
temperatures Sunday morning will be hard-pressed to fall much
below the mid 50`s given increasing dewpoints and extensive low
clouds. By afternoon, a dryline will become more well defined
across the area. Details in location and strength of the dryline
are still unknown, but increasing ascent along with rising
instability and shear east of the boundary will promote an
increase in convection. It`s still a bit far out, but we are
looking at a possibility of strong storms, mainly across the
Permian Basin, Sunday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned as the
fine details will be ironed at as the event nears.

The upper trough passes to our east early next week without the
passage of a cold front. Even though drier conditions are expected,
temperatures will remain well above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  44  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  36  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          60  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  41  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  41  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  39  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
691
FXUS64 KMAF 161002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Sunny, mild conditions expected the next several days before
thunderstorms enter the forecast this weekend.

A piece of the upper trough from the system that affected the area
this weekend has now developed into a cut-off low over Mexico.
Even with this system being in close vicinity, and moving directly
overhead tonight, low level moisture has been scoured out by a
recent cold front. While clouds will increase across the area
today and a shower is possible along the Rio Grande, you
shouldn`t notice much else. Temperatures will warm another 10
degrees or so today as southwesterly winds kick in. Even warmer
conditions will be had Friday under mid level subsidence as the
upper low pulls away from our region. A surface low will also
develop over the Texas High Plains helping to pull in lower
dewpoints that reside to our west. Dry air will combine with
increasing winds to elevate the fire danger across the western
half of the CWA Friday afternoon. Mid level winds don`t look too
impressive, but we could still see sustained winds near 20 mph
along and west of the Pecos River. Guidance continues to show high
winds possible across the Guadalupe Mountains, although very
meager by their standards. Will issue a High Wind Watch with
sustained winds near 50 mph possible Friday afternoon in these
higher elevations. A Wind Advisory may also be needed for the
Davis Mountains and adjacent plains during the same period.

Attention then turns to a vigorous upper storm system that will
slam into the West Coast Saturday. After dropping huge amounts of
rain and snow over the SW U.S. the upper trough will move east
toward our area. The first effects we will see from this system
will be increasing southerly flow at the surface and rich, low-
level Gulf moisture streaming in across the region. Low
temperatures Sunday morning will be hard-pressed to fall much
below the mid 50`s given increasing dewpoints and extensive low
clouds. By afternoon, a dryline will become more well defined
across the area. Details in location and strength of the dryline
are still unknown, but increasing ascent along with rising
instability and shear east of the boundary will promote an
increase in convection. It`s still a bit far out, but we are
looking at a possibility of strong storms, mainly across the
Permian Basin, Sunday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned as the
fine details will be ironed at as the event nears.

The upper trough passes to our east early next week without the
passage of a cold front. Even though drier conditions are expected,
temperatures will remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with
a few high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  44  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  36  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          60  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  41  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  41  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  39  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

29
366
FXUS64 KMAF 160427
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1027 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR wx with S-SW winds less than 10kts overnight. Then mostly SW
around 18Z Thur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  67  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  66  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  69  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  57  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  65  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  61  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  66  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         35  66  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
724
FXUS64 KMAF 152312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR wx with winds less than 10kts overnight. NW-N winds will
transition to S-SW by 03Z and then mostly SW around 18Z Thur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the northeast US with a portion of the
trough lingering over northern Mexico.  Skies will be mostly clear
today allowing temperatures to warm up about 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday; however, temperatures will be prevented from warming up
too much due to northerly winds and the surface high remaining near
the area.

Upper ridging will be present over the central US with the
previously mentioned lingering trough moving over southwest TX on
Thursday. A surface trough will develop across the area Thursday
afternoon with southwest winds allowing temperatures to warm up into
the 60s across most of the CWA.  The upper trough over southwest TX
will begin to lift northeastward on Friday as another upper trough
strengthens and moves over the west coast.  A surface low will
develop across West Texas Friday afternoon with gusty west winds
across the CWA.  This will allow temperatures on Friday to warm up
into the 70s across most of the CWA. MOSS guidance is indicating
high winds through Guadalupe Pass Friday afternoon with a tight
surface pressure gradient across that area. Due to the fact that
the 700 mb winds are not that strong and it is on the backside of
an upper low, a High Wind Watch will not be issued at this time.
On Saturday, the upper trough over the west coast deepens even
further and moves eastward putting the CWA under southwest flow
aloft. Also, the surface winds on Saturday will shift to the
southeast bringing in increase in low-level moisture. Temperatures
on Saturday are expected to be similar to those on Friday.

The upper trough begins to move over the region on Sunday bringing
an increase in upper lift and moisture.  The models develop a
dryline across the eastern CWA on Sunday afternoon so severe weather
potential will need to be monitored. Temperatures on Sunday will
be slightly cooler than the previous day due to an increase in
cloud cover and moisture. The upper trough will be centered over
West Texas on Monday with most of the precipitation east of the
area by Monday afternoon. By the middle of next week, the upper
trough passes to the east of the region with upper ridging
beginning to take shape. Temperatures in the extended forecast
appear to be above normal at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  67  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  66  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  69  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  57  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  65  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  61  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  66  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         35  66  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
107
FXUS64 KMAF 152312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR wx with winds less than 10kts overnight. NW-N winds will
transition to S-SW by 03Z and then mostly SW around 18Z Thur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the northeast US with a portion of the
trough lingering over northern Mexico.  Skies will be mostly clear
today allowing temperatures to warm up about 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday; however, temperatures will be prevented from warming up
too much due to northerly winds and the surface high remaining near
the area.

Upper ridging will be present over the central US with the
previously mentioned lingering trough moving over southwest TX on
Thursday. A surface trough will develop across the area Thursday
afternoon with southwest winds allowing temperatures to warm up into
the 60s across most of the CWA.  The upper trough over southwest TX
will begin to lift northeastward on Friday as another upper trough
strengthens and moves over the west coast.  A surface low will
develop across West Texas Friday afternoon with gusty west winds
across the CWA.  This will allow temperatures on Friday to warm up
into the 70s across most of the CWA. MOSS guidance is indicating
high winds through Guadalupe Pass Friday afternoon with a tight
surface pressure gradient across that area. Due to the fact that
the 700 mb winds are not that strong and it is on the backside of
an upper low, a High Wind Watch will not be issued at this time.
On Saturday, the upper trough over the west coast deepens even
further and moves eastward putting the CWA under southwest flow
aloft. Also, the surface winds on Saturday will shift to the
southeast bringing in increase in low-level moisture. Temperatures
on Saturday are expected to be similar to those on Friday.

The upper trough begins to move over the region on Sunday bringing
an increase in upper lift and moisture.  The models develop a
dryline across the eastern CWA on Sunday afternoon so severe weather
potential will need to be monitored. Temperatures on Sunday will
be slightly cooler than the previous day due to an increase in
cloud cover and moisture. The upper trough will be centered over
West Texas on Monday with most of the precipitation east of the
area by Monday afternoon. By the middle of next week, the upper
trough passes to the east of the region with upper ridging
beginning to take shape. Temperatures in the extended forecast
appear to be above normal at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  67  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  66  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  69  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  57  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  65  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  61  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  66  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         35  66  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
826
FXUS64 KMAF 152023
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
223 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the northeast US with a portion of the
trough lingering over northern Mexico.  Skies will be mostly clear
today allowing temperatures to warm up about 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday; however, temperatures will be prevented from warming up
too much due to northerly winds and the surface high remaining near
the area.

Upper ridging will be present over the central US with the
previously mentioned lingering trough moving over southwest TX on
Thursday. A surface trough will develop across the area Thursday
afternoon with southwest winds allowing temperatures to warm up into
the 60s across most of the CWA.  The upper trough over southwest TX
will begin to lift northeastward on Friday as another upper trough
strengthens and moves over the west coast.  A surface low will
develop across West Texas Friday afternoon with gusty west winds
across the CWA.  This will allow temperatures on Friday to warm up
into the 70s across most of the CWA. MOSS guidance is indicating
high winds through Guadalupe Pass Friday afternoon with a tight
surface pressure gradient across that area. Due to the fact that
the 700 mb winds are not that strong and it is on the backside of
an upper low, a High Wind Watch will not be issued at this time.
On Saturday, the upper trough over the west coast deepens even
further and moves eastward putting the CWA under southwest flow
aloft. Also, the surface winds on Saturday will shift to the
southeast bringing in increase in low-level moisture. Temperatures
on Saturday are expected to be similar to those on Friday.

The upper trough begins to move over the region on Sunday bringing
an increase in upper lift and moisture.  The models develop a
dryline across the eastern CWA on Sunday afternoon so severe weather
potential will need to be monitored. Temperatures on Sunday will
be slightly cooler than the previous day due to an increase in
cloud cover and moisture. The upper trough will be centered over
West Texas on Monday with most of the precipitation east of the
area by Monday afternoon. By the middle of next week, the upper
trough passes to the east of the region with upper ridging
beginning to take shape. Temperatures in the extended forecast
appear to be above normal at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  67  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  66  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  69  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  57  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  65  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  61  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  66  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         35  66  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/80
927
FXUS64 KMAF 151707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

After a chilly and wet few days we will see much drier conditions
along with warming temperatures to finish out the week.

Northerly flow at the surface and clearing skies have allowed
temperatures to fall to near freezing this morning across much of
the area. Temperatures will climb to near normal with light winds as
high pressure centers over Texas this afternoon. A piece of the
upper trough that affected our region this weekend has hung back
over Mexico and will lift through the area Thursday and Friday.
Without any moisture to work with, don`t expect much more than a few
passing clouds with the system. One thing you will notice is the
extensive warm-up as surface winds veer to the southwest.
Temperatures will climb well above normal Friday into the weekend
and increasing winds will also promote a high fire danger especially
across the higher terrain. There may even be a period of high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon.

A strong upper trough will develop along the West Coast this weekend
and move east across N. Mexico. Increasing southerly flow aloft will
pull Gulf moisture back across the area at the surface. Dewpoints in
the 50`s are likely by Sunday morning over the eastern half of the
CWA. Being five days out the forecast will continue to evolve, but
it is looking more likely that we will see an increase in rain
chances early next week. With a large amount of warm air and
instability around for February, we could even see some strong storms.
Won`t get into any of the fine details yet as models will
continue to change.

Warm conditions look to continue into much of next week, even behind
a weak cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  34  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       58  32  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  40  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  37  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  34  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  32  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  27  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         58  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
230
FXUS64 KMAF 150939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light sfc flow will
veer slightly to NW today, before weak return flow resumes
overnight.  Some high clouds are anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

After a chilly and wet few days we will see much drier conditions
along with warming temperatures to finish out the week.

Northerly flow at the surface and clearing skies have allowed
temperatures to fall to near freezing this morning across much of
the area. Temperatures will climb to near normal with light winds as
high pressure centers over Texas this afternoon. A piece of the
upper trough that affected our region this weekend has hung back
over Mexico and will lift through the area Thursday and Friday.
Without any moisture to work with, don`t expect much more than a few
passing clouds with the system. One thing you will notice is the
extensive warm-up as surface winds veer to the southwest.
Temperatures will climb well above normal Friday into the weekend
and increasing winds will also promote a high fire danger especially
across the higher terrain. There may even be a period of high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon.

A strong upper trough will develop along the West Coast this weekend
and move east across N. Mexico. Increasing southerly flow aloft will
pull Gulf moisture back across the area at the surface. Dewpoints in
the 50`s are likely by Sunday morning over the eastern half of the
CWA. Being five days out the forecast will continue to evolve, but
it is looking more likely that we will see an increase in rain
chances early next week. With a large amount of warm air and
instability around for February, we could even see some strong storms.
Won`t get into any of the fine details yet as models will
continue to change.

Warm conditions look to continue into much of next week, even behind
a weak cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  34  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       58  32  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  40  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  37  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  34  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  32  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  27  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         58  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
816
FXUS64 KMAF 150931
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

After a chilly and wet few days we will see much drier conditions
along with warming temperatures to finish out the week.

Northerly flow at the surface and clearing skies have allowed
temperatures to fall to near freezing this morning across much of
the area. Temperatures will climb to near normal with light winds as
high pressure centers over Texas this afternoon. A piece of the
upper trough that affected our region this weekend has hung back
over Mexico and will lift through the area Thursday and Friday.
Without any moisture to work with, don`t expect much more than a few
passing clouds with the system. One thing you will notice is the
extensive warm-up as surface winds veer to the southwest.
Temperatures will climb well above normal Friday into the weekend
and increasing winds will also promote a high fire danger especially
across the higher terrain. There may even be a period of high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon.

A strong upper trough will develop along the West Coast this weekend
and move east across N. Mexico. Increasing southerly flow aloft will
pull Gulf moisture back across the area at the surface. Dewpoints in
the 50`s are likely by Sunday morning over the eastern half of the
CWA. Being five days out the forecast will continue to evolve, but
it is looking more likely that we will see an increase in rain
chances early next week. With a large amount of warm air and
instability around for February, we could even see some strong storms.
Won`t get into any of the fine details yet as models will
continue to change.

Warm conditions look to continue into much of next week, even behind
a weak cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  34  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       58  32  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  40  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  37  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  34  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  32  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  27  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         58  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
533
FXUS64 KMAF 150434
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1034 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Wrap around clouds around 060-080 are moving south across the area
mainly between HOB-INK-FST. Otherwise winds have fallen below
10kts with some variability in direction, but mostly NW-N tonight
and Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  57  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  57  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         39  62  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  35  59  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 30  51  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          29  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  52  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  59  32  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
617
FXUS64 KMAF 142325
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds will clear around 03Z with VFR conditions thru the rest of
the night. Winds will also decrease and stay below 10kts thru the
night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low is centered over northern TX with precipitation
wrapping around the low across east TX and the TX panhandle. This
upper low is an extension of an upper trough centered over the Great
Lakes. There is a slight chance of some of this wrap around light
rain impacting northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs in the
40s and 50s across the area except along the Rio Grande as the
surface high will be centered along the northern counties of the CWA
later this afternoon.

A portion of the previously mentioned upper low moves eastward and
becomes entrenched in the upper flow of the upper trough over the
Northeast/Great Lakes region.  Another portion of the upper low lags
behind and stalls out over northern Mexico.  Temperatures on
Wednesday will start to warm up from less cloud cover but will still
remain on the cool side due to northerly winds and the surface high
staying across the area.  On Thursday, an upper ridge will be
centered over the central US in between two upper troughs over the
west and east coasts.  The portion of the upper low lagging behind
will develop into a trough over northern Mexico, New Mexico, and
Texas.  A surface low will develop north of the area on Thursday
afternoon with surface winds out of the southwest to west across the
CWA.  These winds will contribute to downslope warming which will
allow for temperatures on Thursday to warm up about 10 degrees from
the previous day.

On Friday, the upper trough over the west coast deepens and starts
to move eastward by the weekend.  This will result in the upper
trough centered over northern Mexico to eject northeastward towards
the Oklahoma/Texas border.  The surface trough across the area will
strengthen allowing for temperatures on Friday to warm up into the
70s across much of the area.  The upper trough over the west coast
continues to strengthen and deepen on Saturday becoming centered
just south of southern California.  High temperatures on Saturday
are expected to be similar to those on Friday.  The upper trough
begins to move over the region on Sunday bringing an increase in
moisture across the eastern CWA and an increase in upper lift.  The
Canadian model shows this trough becoming negatively tilted but
keeping precipitation just to the east of the CWA.  The GFS and
ECMWF models show rain developing over the CWA on Sunday.  This
upper storm system will need to be monitored for the potential for
severe weather.  The upper trough continues to pass over the region
on Monday with the precipitation moving out of the area by Monday
afternoon. Upper ridging begins to develop over the region next
Tuesday.  Temperatures in the extended forecast are expected to be
above normal with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  57  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  57  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         39  62  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  35  59  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 30  51  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          29  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  52  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  59  32  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
006
FXUS64 KMAF 142014
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low is centered over northern TX with precipitation
wrapping around the low across east TX and the TX panhandle. This
upper low is an extension of an upper trough centered over the Great
Lakes. There is a slight chance of some of this wrap around light
rain impacting northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs in the
40s and 50s across the area except along the Rio Grande as the
surface high will be centered along the northern counties of the CWA
later this afternoon.

A portion of the previously mentioned upper low moves eastward and
becomes entrenched in the upper flow of the upper trough over the
Northeast/Great Lakes region.  Another portion of the upper low lags
behind and stalls out over northern Mexico.  Temperatures on
Wednesday will start to warm up from less cloud cover but will still
remain on the cool side due to northerly winds and the surface high
staying across the area.  On Thursday, an upper ridge will be
centered over the central US in between two upper troughs over the
west and east coasts.  The portion of the upper low lagging behind
will develop into a trough over northern Mexico, New Mexico, and
Texas.  A surface low will develop north of the area on Thursday
afternoon with surface winds out of the southwest to west across the
CWA.  These winds will contribute to downslope warming which will
allow for temperatures on Thursday to warm up about 10 degrees from
the previous day.

On Friday, the upper trough over the west coast deepens and starts
to move eastward by the weekend.  This will result in the upper
trough centered over northern Mexico to eject northeastward towards
the Oklahoma/Texas border.  The surface trough across the area will
strengthen allowing for temperatures on Friday to warm up into the
70s across much of the area.  The upper trough over the west coast
continues to strengthen and deepen on Saturday becoming centered
just south of southern California.  High temperatures on Saturday
are expected to be similar to those on Friday.  The upper trough
begins to move over the region on Sunday bringing an increase in
moisture across the eastern CWA and an increase in upper lift.  The
Canadian model shows this trough becoming negatively tilted but
keeping precipitation just to the east of the CWA.  The GFS and
ECMWF models show rain developing over the CWA on Sunday.  This
upper storm system will need to be monitored for the potential for
severe weather.  The upper trough continues to pass over the region
on Monday with the precipitation moving out of the area by Monday
afternoon. Upper ridging begins to develop over the region next
Tuesday.  Temperatures in the extended forecast are expected to be
above normal with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  57  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  57  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         39  62  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  35  59  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 30  51  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          29  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  52  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  59  32  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80
825
FXUS64 KMAF 141726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Aside from MVFR ceilings impinging upon most area terminals
through 14/19Z to 14/21Z, VFR conditions will prevail areawide
the rest of this afternoon and tonight.  Gusty northwest to north
winds will diminish after 15/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

WV imagery shows the upper trough over northeast New Mexico at
08Z...a little further north than models placed it 24 hrs ago.
Area radars show convection has cleared the eastern zones, w/radar
rainfall estimates of close to 2" in isolated areas east.

Trough is forecast to move thru north Texas today, ending up over SE
OK by 00Z Wednesday.  We`ve left in a chance of rain, mainly NE
zones, to catch any wraparound development, but this should taper
off fairly quickly by/after 18Z.  A quick look at sfc obs show most
of what is falling attm is -RA, w/maybe a few flurries in the
Guadalupes.  Forecast soundings of areas north of the FA, i.e.,
KROW, depict only rain.  Given the track of the core, we`ve kept
everything outside of the Guadalupes -RA.

Meridional flow will persist over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico as a secondary trough pinches off over nrn Sonora by 12Z Wed.
At the sfc, high pressure to the north will keep cool, northerly
flow over the area thru Thursday, retarding the usual warmup
somewhat.  Return flow resumes Thursday night as the sfc ridge
slides into central Texas, and temps should finally climb above-
normal by Friday.

Models are fairly in taking the secondary trough over Sonora south
forecast southeast Wednesday, then eject it thru West Texas
Thursday.  Brief ridging follows before a third upper trough makes
landfall at Baja and approaches the region Saturday night, for
increasing chances of convection Sunday/Sunday night as the trough
moves thru.  Otherwise, temps stay above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  35  57  35 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  33  58  32 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  42  62  40 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  37  58  36 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  34  50  35 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  32  56  32 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  30  53  27 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  35  56  34 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  35  57  35 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           54  34  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
021
FXUS64 KMAF 141106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
MVFR cigs will persist across much of the Permian Basin terminals
with VFR conditions to the west. Northerly winds will increase and
become gusty later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will
diminish and VFR conditions should return areawide by this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough over northeast New Mexico at
08Z...a little further north than models placed it 24 hrs ago.  Area
radars show convection has cleared the eastern zones, w/radar
rainfall estimates of close to 2" in isolated areas east.

Trough is forecast to move thru north Texas today, ending up over SE
OK by 00Z Wednesday.  We`ve left in a chance of rain, mainly NE
zones, to catch any wraparound development, but this should taper
off fairly quickly by/after 18Z.  A quick look at sfc obs show most
of what is falling attm is -RA, w/maybe a few flurries in the
Guadalupes.  Forecast soundings of areas north of the FA, i.e.,
KROW, depict only rain.  Given the track of the core, we`ve kept
everything outside of the Guadalupes -RA.

Meridional flow will persist over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico as a secondary trough pinches off over nrn Sonora by 12Z Wed.
At the sfc, high pressure to the north will keep cool, northerly
flow over the area thru Thursday, retarding the usual warmup
somewhat.  Return flow resumes Thursday night as the sfc ridge
slides into central Texas, and temps should finally climb above-
normal by Friday.

Models are fairly in taking the secondary trough over Sonora south
forecast southeast Wednesday, then eject it thru West Texas
Thursday.  Brief ridging follows before a third upper trough makes
landfall at Baja and approaches the region Saturday night, for
increasing chances of convection Sunday/Sunday night as the trough
moves thru.  Otherwise, temps stay above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  35  57  35 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  33  58  32 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  42  62  40 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  37  58  36 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  34  50  35 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  32  56  32 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  30  53  27 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  35  56  34 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  35  57  35 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           54  34  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
675
FXUS64 KMAF 140945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough over northeast New Mexico at
08Z...a little further north than models placed it 24 hrs ago.  Area
radars show convection has cleared the eastern zones, w/radar
rainfall estimates of close to 2" in isolated areas east.

Trough is forecast to move thru north Texas today, ending up over SE
OK by 00Z Wednesday.  We`ve left in a chance of rain, mainly NE
zones, to catch any wraparound development, but this should taper
off fairly quickly by/after 18Z.  A quick look at sfc obs show most
of what is falling attm is -RA, w/maybe a few flurries in the
Guadalupes.  Forecast soundings of areas north of the FA, i.e.,
KROW, depict only rain.  Given the track of the core, we`ve kept
everything outside of the Guadalupes -RA.

Meridional flow will persist over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico as a secondary trough pinches off over nrn Sonora by 12Z Wed.
At the sfc, high pressure to the north will keep cool, northerly
flow over the area thru Thursday, retarding the usual warmup
somewhat.  Return flow resumes Thursday night as the sfc ridge
slides into central Texas, and temps should finally climb above-
normal by Friday.

Models are fairly in taking the secondary trough over Sonora south
forecast southeast Wednesday, then eject it thru West Texas
Thursday.  Brief ridging follows before a third upper trough makes
landfall at Baja and approaches the region Saturday night, for
increasing chances of convection Sunday/Sunday night as the trough
moves thru.  Otherwise, temps stay above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  35  57  35 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  33  58  32 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  42  62  40 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  37  58  36 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  34  50  35 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  32  56  32 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  30  53  27 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  35  56  34 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  35  57  35 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           54  34  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/44
361
FXUS64 KMAF 140431
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1031 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR cigs and vsbys falling to IFR overnight...
conditions should improve by 18z tomorrow. Most of the showers
and storms have moved east of the area but could see some
redevelopment tonight. Wind will remain N to NW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cutoff low over southern Arizona, New Mexico and northern Mexico
will eject east/northeastward tonight and provide another round of
precipitation over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.  The main
axis of precipitation will be over west central Texas, but the
extreme eastern Permian Basin could get in on some of the showers
and thunderstorms that will develop due to isentropic upglide and
resulting modest elevated instability axis where mid level lapse
rates near 7 C/km will reside.  Temperature profiles and
surface temperatures indicate precipitation will remain all liquid
in these areas.  Expect lighter precipitation will affect the
rest of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday morning, some of which
could be a mix of rain and snow, or all snow, in the Guadalupe
Mountains and higher elevations of the Davis Mountains where surface
temperatures will be the coldest.  Will forego issuance of a Winter
Weather Advisory for either mountain ranges though as only an inch
or less of snow accumulation is expected.

The cutoff low will move east of the region Tuesday with
precipitation coming to end.  Northerly winds behind the departing
low will reinforce cold air over the region, and along with
persistent cloud cover keep high temperatures Tuesday afternoon
10 to 15 degrees below normal.  Skies will clear Tuesday night
and aid low temperatures dropping near normal Wednesday morning.
Although sunshine will return Wednesday, high temperatures will
still be a few degrees below normal most areas.  Weak upper
troughiness will linger over the region Thursday and Friday,
followed by shortwave ridging aloft Saturday.  This portends a dry
forecast with temperatures rising above normal Thursday, and 10 to
15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.  The next upper trough
is progged to affect the area Sunday.  Will keep a chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast then, some of which could be severe
considering current model offerings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  45  34  61 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  50  29  59 /  70  10   0   0
Dryden                         42  62  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  49  34  59 /  50  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  44  29  51 /  50  20   0   0
Hobbs                          34  41  28  54 /  80  20   0   0
Marfa                          32  52  23  53 /  50   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  46  32  58 /  80  20   0   0
Odessa                         36  46  33  59 /  80  20   0   0
Wink                           38  50  29  60 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
936
FXUS64 KMAF 132351
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect deteriorating conditions overnight as cigs fall
with MVFR prevailing becoming IFR.  Conditions should
slowly improve tomorrow after 12z. Some thunderstorms will
be possible tonight but mainly light rain and showers.
Wind will generally be N to NW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cutoff low over southern Arizona, New Mexico and northern Mexico
will eject east/northeastward tonight and provide another round of
precipitation over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.  The main
axis of precipitation will be over west central Texas, but the
extreme eastern Permian Basin could get in on some of the showers
and thunderstorms that will develop due to isentropic upglide and
resulting modest elevated instability axis where mid level lapse
rates near 7 C/km will reside.  Temperature profiles and
surface temperatures indicate precipitation will remain all liquid
in these areas.  Expect lighter precipitation will affect the
rest of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday morning, some of which
could be a mix of rain and snow, or all snow, in the Guadalupe
Mountains and higher elevations of the Davis Mountains where surface
temperatures will be the coldest.  Will forego issuance of a Winter
Weather Advisory for either mountain ranges though as only an inch
or less of snow accumulation is expected.

The cutoff low will move east of the region Tuesday with
precipitation coming to end.  Northerly winds behind the departing
low will reinforce cold air over the region, and along with
persistent cloud cover keep high temperatures Tuesday afternoon
10 to 15 degrees below normal.  Skies will clear Tuesday night
and aid low temperatures dropping near normal Wednesday morning.
Although sunshine will return Wednesday, high temperatures will
still be a few degrees below normal most areas.  Weak upper
troughiness will linger over the region Thursday and Friday,
followed by shortwave ridging aloft Saturday.  This portends a dry
forecast with temperatures rising above normal Thursday, and 10 to
15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.  The next upper trough
is progged to affect the area Sunday.  Will keep a chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast then, some of which could be severe
considering current model offerings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  45  34  61 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  50  29  59 /  70  10   0   0
Dryden                         42  62  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  49  34  59 /  50  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  44  29  51 /  50  20   0   0
Hobbs                          34  41  28  54 /  80  20   0   0
Marfa                          32  52  23  53 /  50   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  46  32  58 /  80  20   0   0
Odessa                         36  46  33  59 /  80  20   0   0
Wink                           38  50  29  60 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
207
FXUS64 KMAF 132138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cutoff low over southern Arizona, New Mexico and northern Mexico
will eject east/northeastward tonight and provide another round of
precipitation over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.  The main
axis of precipitation will be over west central Texas, but the
extreme eastern Permian Basin could get in on some of the showers
and thunderstorms that will develop due to isentropic upglide and
resulting modest elevated instability axis where mid level lapse
rates near 7 C/km will reside.  Temperature profiles and
surface temperatures indicate precipitation will remain all liquid
in these areas.  Expect lighter precipitation will affect the
rest of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday morning, some of which
could be a mix of rain and snow, or all snow, in the Guadalupe
Mountains and higher elevations of the Davis Mountains where surface
temperatures will be the coldest.  Will forego issuance of a Winter
Weather Advisory for either mountain ranges though as only an inch
or less of snow accumulation is expected.

The cutoff low will move east of the region Tuesday with
precipitation coming to end.  Northerly winds behind the departing
low will reinforce cold air over the region, and along with
persistent cloud cover keep high temperatures Tuesday afternoon
10 to 15 degrees below normal.  Skies will clear Tuesday night
and aid low temperatures dropping near normal Wednesday morning.
Although sunshine will return Wednesday, high temperatures will
still be a few degrees below normal most areas.  Weak upper
troughiness will linger over the region Thursday and Friday,
followed by shortwave ridging aloft Saturday.  This portends a dry
forecast with temperatures rising above normal Thursday, and 10 to
15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.  The next upper trough
is progged to affect the area Sunday.  Will keep a chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast then, some of which could be severe
considering current model offerings.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  45  34  61 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  50  29  59 /  70  10   0   0
Dryden                         42  62  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  49  34  59 /  50  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  44  29  51 /  50  20   0   0
Hobbs                          34  41  28  54 /  80  20   0   0
Marfa                          32  52  23  53 /  50   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  46  32  58 /  80  20   0   0
Odessa                         36  46  33  59 /  80  20   0   0
Wink                           38  50  29  60 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/67
910
FXUS64 KMAF 131746
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1146 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Warning
in the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop/spread northward over
the Permian Basin under difluent flow aloft ahead of a cutoff low
over northern Mexico.  Isentropic upglide indicated on the 13/12Z
MAF sounding is resulting in modest elevated instability and
scattered thunderstorm development, which are producing perhaps
0.25-0.5" as they move north near 50 mph.  Expect additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the forecast area, but mainly
eastern portions.

Farther west, precipitation will be possible today and tonight too,
but it may be more sporadic and have less areal coverage.  As far as
wintry precipitation goes, most locations are above freezing, and it
appears they will stay that way.  The exception is the Guadalupe
Mountains, and higher elevations of the Davis Mountains.  Had a
report of sleet and freezing rain accumulation that occurred
overnight in the Guadalupe Mountains, but precipitation ended near
Queen by 13/15Z.  Think the Guadalupes could see some more light
precipitation through the afternoon, but temperatures are creeping
up to freezing, and expect they will rise above freezing during
the afternoon.  Considering this will expire the Winter Weather
Advisory there.  In addition, will cancel the rest of the High
Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass as sustained winds will likely
decrease more this afternoon.  There may be additional wintry
precipitation in the Guadalupe Mountains tonight as the cutoff low
moves over the region and cools the temperatures profile.
Precipitation will be rain or snow this afternoon, then all snow
tonight, over the Guadalupes, but since amounts of an inch or less
appear most likely, will probably not reissue a Winter Weather
Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain and occasional thunderstorms will continue across the
area through the TAF period.  Low ceilings will persist through this
time mostly ranging between MVFR and IFR with some periods of VFR.
Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  37  45  34 /  80  80  50   0
Carlsbad                       40  36  50  31 /  70  60  20   0
Dryden                         52  42  62  40 /  70  80  10   0
Fort Stockton                  43  37  49  34 /  60  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  27  44  31 /  60  50  20   0
Hobbs                          37  34  45  30 /  80  70  40   0
Marfa                          47  32  52  27 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  36  46  34 /  70  80  30   0
Odessa                         42  36  46  33 /  60  80  30   0
Wink                           44  38  50  32 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  37  45  34 /  80  80  50   0
Carlsbad                       40  36  50  31 /  70  60  20   0
Dryden                         52  42  62  40 /  70  80  10   0
Fort Stockton                  43  37  49  34 /  60  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  27  44  31 /  60  50  20   0
Hobbs                          37  34  45  30 /  80  70  40   0
Marfa                          47  32  52  27 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  36  46  34 /  70  80  30   0
Odessa                         42  36  46  33 /  60  80  30   0
Wink                           44  38  50  32 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
846
FXUS64 KMAF 131744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1144 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Warning
in the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop/spread northward over
the Permian Basin under difluent flow aloft ahead of a cutoff low
over northern Mexico.  Isentropic upglide indicated on the 13/12Z
MAF sounding is resulting in modest elevated instability and
scattered thunderstorm development, which are producing perhaps
0.25-0.5" as they move north near 50 mph.  Expect additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the forecast area, but mainly
eastern portions.

Farther west, precipitation will be possible today and tonight too,
but it may be more sporadic and have less areal coverage.  As far as
wintry precipitation goes, most locations are above freezing, and it
appears they will stay that way.  The exception is the Guadalupe
Mountains, and higher elevations of the Davis Mountains.  Had a
report of sleet and freezing rain accumulation that occurred
overnight in the Guadalupe Mountains, but precipitation ended near
Queen by 13/15Z.  Think the Guadalupes could see some more light
precipitation through the afternoon, but temperatures are creeping
up to freezing, and expect they will rise above freezing during
the afternoon.  Considering this will expire the Winter Weather
Advisory there.  In addition, will cancel the rest of the High
Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass as sustained winds will likely
decrease more this afternoon.  There may be additional wintry
precipitation in the Guadalupe Mountains tonight as the cutoff low
moves over the region and cools the temperatures profile.
Precipitation will be rain or snow this afternoon, then all snow
tonight, over the Guadalupes, but since amounts of an inch or less
appear most likely, will probably not reissue a Winter Weather
Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain and occasional thunderstorms will continue across the
area through the TAF period.  Low ceilings will persist through this
time mostly ranging between MVFR and IFR with some periods of VFR.
Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  37  45  34 /  80  80  50   0
Carlsbad                       40  36  50  31 /  70  60  20   0
Dryden                         52  42  62  40 /  70  80  10   0
Fort Stockton                  43  37  49  34 /  60  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  27  44  31 /  60  50  20   0
Hobbs                          37  34  45  30 /  80  70  40   0
Marfa                          47  32  52  27 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  36  46  34 /  70  80  30   0
Odessa                         42  36  46  33 /  60  80  30   0
Wink                           44  38  50  32 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 1 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
739
FXUS64 KMAF 130959
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
359 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect cigs to deteriorate rapidly this AM as isentropic upglide
strengthens and -SHRA moves up from the SW. Buffer soundings
suggest cigs all terminals dropping to IFR/LIFR most of the
forecast period. By 12Z Tue, models place the core of the upper
trough over SE NM, suggesting a slight improvement most terminals,
but not much.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite shows upper low is moving e across nrn MX with
increasingly diffluent upper level flow with mid level
instability. Radar does depict SHRA/TSRA across the wrn CWFA with
SHRA starting to develop across the PB. Opportunity for precip
this morning is especially good across the Upper Trans Pecos
including GDP Mtns and SE NM/NW PB. Embedded convection will
remain possible with mid level LRs around 7 C/KM thru the day.
More of a question is precip type across the w. Forecast
soundings show a very warm layer of 2C-4C about 2500 ft deep and
so any precip this morning will mostly be in the form of RA/FZRA.
Models are still warm at the surface this morning, but there are
few things to consider. In the GDP Mtns we do note a cold layer
between 5500-7800 ft where temps range from 33-26, respectively.
Also we note the T/Td spreads have narrowed from wet bulb cooling.
High resolution models including the HRRR bring surface temps
down below 30 across parts of the GDP Mtns thru 18Z. For SE NM
plains even though wet bulb cooling will/has occurred based on
soundings and the warmer surface temps seen in the high
resolution data there will be only a small window for sub freezing
temps. For the Davis wet bulb cooling has mostly already occurred
with T/Td at 6500 ft 33/28. Soundings there have even a "warmer"
warm layer aloft and we believe it will difficult to overcome for
wintry precip and this area has the lowest PoPs this morning. As
such we will opt to cancel advisory for Davis Mtns and SE NM. All
MOS and model QPF are supportive of high PoPs mostly into Tue AM
(especially across the e Tue AM). As upper low move e-ne this PM
and eventually near GDP by 06Z/Tue the column will cool and
thermal profile becomes supportive of SN across the w, however at
the same time the best chance for precip will be shifting to the
e. The 5h low is forecast to be a little farther s and if the 1st
few thousand ft can get cold enough there could be accumulating
SN, even in the higher elevations of SE NM, like Caprock/Tatum
areas. Still too many unknowns to issue an advisory. Precip along
with surface ridging will keep temps much cooler today/Tue PM.
TSRA will remain possible thru Tue AM when across the far e (small
hail possible) and points e will see renewed precip develop
between 06Z-12Z Tue, much of the PB may be just on the w side of
it? Precip will mostly end by or around 18z Tue with skies
clearing by Wed AM. Wed PM will be warmer, but high temps will
still be below normal. Warming continues Thur-Sat ahead of another
trof/cold front Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  37  45  34 /  80  80  50   0
Carlsbad                       40  36  50  31 /  70  60  20   0
Dryden                         52  42  62  40 /  70  80  10   0
Fort Stockton                  43  37  49  34 /  60  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  27  44  31 /  60  50  20   0
Hobbs                          37  34  45  30 /  80  70  40   0
Marfa                          47  32  52  27 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  36  46  34 /  70  80  30   0
Odessa                         42  36  46  33 /  60  80  30   0
Wink                           44  38  50  32 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 1 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/49/44
189
FXUS64 KMAF 130924
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite shows upper low is moving e across nrn MX with
increasingly diffluent upper level flow with mid level
instability. Radar does depict SHRA/TSRA across the wrn CWFA with
SHRA starting to develop across the PB. Opportunity for precip
this morning is especially good across the Upper Trans Pecos
including GDP Mtns and SE NM/NW PB. Embedded convection will
remain possible with mid level LRs around 7 C/KM thru the day.
More of a question is precip type across the w. Forecast
soundings show a very warm layer of 2C-4C about 2500 ft deep and
so any precip this morning will mostly be in the form of RA/FZRA.
Models are still warm at the surface this morning, but there are
few things to consider. In the GDP Mtns we do note a cold layer
between 5500-7800 ft where temps range from 33-26, respectively.
Also we note the T/Td spreads have narrowed from wet bulb cooling.
High resolution models including the HRRR bring surface temps
down below 30 across parts of the GDP Mtns thru 18Z. For SE NM
plains even though wet bulb cooling will/has occurred based on
soundings and the warmer surface temps seen in the high
resolution data there will be only a small window for sub freezing
temps. For the Davis wet bulb cooling has mostly already occurred
with T/Td at 6500 ft 33/28. Soundings there have even a "warmer"
warm layer aloft and we believe it will difficult to overcome for
wintry precip and this area has the lowest PoPs this morning. As
such we will opt to cancel advisory for Davis Mtns and SE NM. All
MOS and model QPF are supportive of high PoPs mostly into Tue AM
(especially across the e Tue AM). As upper low move e-ne this PM
and eventually near GDP by 06Z/Tue the column will cool and
thermal profile becomes supportive of SN across the w, however at
the same time the best chance for precip will be shifting to the
e. The 5h low is forecast to be a little farther s and if the 1st
few thousand ft can get cold enough there could be accumulating
SN, even in the higher elevations of SE NM, like Caprock/Tatum
areas. Still too many unknowns to issue an advisory. Precip along
with surface ridging will keep temps much cooler today/Tue PM.
TSRA will remain possible thru Tue AM when across the far e (small
hail possible) and points e will see renewed precip develop
between 06Z-12Z Tue, much of the PB may be just on the w side of
it? Precip will mostly end by or around 18z Tue with skies
clearing by Wed AM. Wed PM will be warmer, but high temps will
still be below normal. Warming continues Thur-Sat ahead of another
trof/cold front Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  37  45  34 /  80  80  50   0
Carlsbad                       40  36  50  31 /  70  60  20   0
Dryden                         52  42  62  40 /  70  80  10   0
Fort Stockton                  43  37  49  34 /  60  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  27  44  31 /  60  50  20   0
Hobbs                          37  34  45  30 /  80  70  40   0
Marfa                          47  32  52  27 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  36  46  34 /  70  80  30   0
Odessa                         42  36  46  33 /  60  80  30   0
Wink                           44  38  50  32 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 1 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
950
FXUS64 KMAF 130437
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1037 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Rain will continue to pick up across SE NM and Van Horn region
over the next couple of hours and spread east. Stratus will lower
in height through the night with MVFR cigs expected for most TAF
sites. Gusty NE wind expected to slowly decrease and back to the N
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Northeast winds continue to blow at an accelerated clip across most
of the forecast area this afternoon, although speeds are waning
somewhat over the southeastern New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos,
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling plains.  Although a few
locations will stubbornly linger near advisory criteria of 30 mph
sustained and a few gusts near 45 mph through this afternoon and
perhaps early evening, will cancel the rest of the Wind Advisory
over these areas and handle any outliers with social media.  Farther
west and southwest, expect northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph, and
gusts to 50 mph, to persist through the evening, due in part to
funneling/enhancement over the variable terrain.  There may be
periodic lulls in these areas, but overall think the winds will stay
up through the evening and warrant the advisory running until 13/06Z
for the Guadalupe Mountains of southeastern New Mexico, Van Horn
area, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau and Presidio Valley until
13/06Z.

Attention then will focus on an approaching upper low and
precipitation types and chances.  The latest models are still taking
a more northerly track, that is, over southeastern New Mexico Monday
night.  Considering this track, the latest models are also coming in
with warmer surface temperatures over the forecast area tonight and
Monday morning, both in the raw data and MOS guidance, and are
slower changing to wintry precipitation.  In addition, temperature
profiles will be warm enough for all rain over west Texas, and much
of southeastern New Mexico too.  The exceptions are the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, where there is a several hour period where
freezing rain, if not snow and sleet, could fall between 13/09Z and
13/18Z.  High resolution models are particularly indicating surface
temperatures dropping to the upper 20s in the Guadalupes and near 30
in the Davis Mountains late tonight and staying below freezing at
both through the morning.  Despite warm ground temperatures likely
mitigating ice or snow accumulations initially, will go ahead and
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for both from 13/09Z until 13/18Z,
but for elevations above 6000 feet in the Davis Mountains.
Surface temperatures will be more marginal over the southeast New
Mexico plains, but temperature profiles support a mix of sleet
and snow there, if not freezing rain over northern portions of
Eddy, and central and northern Lea counties.  Will go ahead and
include both in the Winter Weather Advisory too. Think 1-3 inches
of snow could accumulate in the Guadalupes, and 1-2 inches of
sleet and snow over the Davis Mountains, and northern portions of
Eddy and Lea counties. Steep lapse rates around 7 C/km and modest
instability around h75 will exist over southwest Texas tonight, so
will continue to mention isolated thunder. If any thunderstorms
develop near or over the mountains, it could enhance precipitation
rates. Will alert subsequent shifts and have them monitor.

There is still a good chance of rain over most of the forecast area
Monday and Monday night as the upper low nears, then moves over the
region.  Again, the latest raw data and MOS guidance have warmed low
and high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, which will likely put
a crimp in precipitation changing to the freezing or frozen variety.
The locations which stand the best chance of seeing precipitation
change to sleet or snow Monday night are the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeastern New Mexico plains.  Northernmost portions of the
Permian Basin could also see precipitation change to sleet or snow
late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  At this time, it appears
snowfall amounts would be 1-2 inches at best.  This may especially
be true for portions of southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern
Permian Basin Monday night since there is some indications isolated
thunderstorms could support a burst of heavier precipitation, cool
the atmospheric column and change precipitation more rapidly to
snow.  Will keep a mix of precipitation in all of these areas, but
due to the questionable surface temperatures, will not issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for these time frames, yet.  Moderate to
locally heavy rainfall could occur over easternmost portions of the
forecast area Monday night, and will make a mention of this in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook for now since it appears the main axis of
heavier rainfall will fall just east of our County Warning Area.

The forecast will be dry from Tuesday night through the rest of the
week as the ua trough moves east of the region.  Another upper
trough is progged to approach Saturday, and move overhead next
Saturday night/Sunday.  Some models are indicating thunderstorms
developing over the area with this trough, but will wait and see how
much consistency models can muster the next couple of days, before
increasing rain chances much.  Temperatures will warm to near normal
Wednesday, then above normal through next weekend Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     39  44  36  41 /  30  80  90  40
Carlsbad                       36  36  34  44 /  90  80  50  20
Dryden                         51  53  43  56 /  30  70  70  10
Fort Stockton                  38  39  36  48 /  50  70  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 28  35  31  41 /  90  60  40  20
Hobbs                          33  35  32  39 /  60  90  70  30
Marfa                          38  47  34  49 /  40  60  50  10
Midland Intl Airport           38  41  34  42 /  40  80  70  30
Odessa                         35  39  34  42 /  40  80  70  30
Wink                           41  41  35  46 /  50  80  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Monday for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to noon CST /11
     AM MST/ Monday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
705
FXUS64 KMAF 122329
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
529 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Post frontal conditions with gusty NE wind that should start to
decrease through the evening. Expect the development of rain and low
clouds over most of the area tonight with MVFR cigs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Northeast winds continue to blow at an accelerated clip across most
of the forecast area this afternoon, although speeds are waning
somewhat over the southeastern New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos,
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling plains.  Although a few
locations will stubbornly linger near advisory criteria of 30 mph
sustained and a few gusts near 45 mph through this afternoon and
perhaps early evening, will cancel the rest of the Wind Advisory
over these areas and handle any outliers with social media.  Farther
west and southwest, expect northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph, and
gusts to 50 mph, to persist through the evening, due in part to
funneling/enhancement over the variable terrain.  There may be
periodic lulls in these areas, but overall think the winds will stay
up through the evening and warrant the advisory running until 13/06Z
for the Guadalupe Mountains of southeastern New Mexico, Van Horn
area, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau and Presidio Valley until
13/06Z.

Attention then will focus on an approaching upper low and
precipitation types and chances.  The latest models are still taking
a more northerly track, that is, over southeastern New Mexico Monday
night.  Considering this track, the latest models are also coming in
with warmer surface temperatures over the forecast area tonight and
Monday morning, both in the raw data and MOS guidance, and are
slower changing to wintry precipitation.  In addition, temperature
profiles will be warm enough for all rain over west Texas, and much
of southeastern New Mexico too.  The exceptions are the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, where there is a several hour period where
freezing rain, if not snow and sleet, could fall between 13/09Z and
13/18Z.  High resolution models are particularly indicating surface
temperatures dropping to the upper 20s in the Guadalupes and near 30
in the Davis Mountains late tonight and staying below freezing at
both through the morning.  Despite warm ground temperatures likely
mitigating ice or snow accumulations initially, will go ahead and
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for both from 13/09Z until 13/18Z,
but for elevations above 6000 feet in the Davis Mountains.
Surface temperatures will be more marginal over the southeast New
Mexico plains, but temperature profiles support a mix of sleet
and snow there, if not freezing rain over northern portions of
Eddy, and central and northern Lea counties.  Will go ahead and
include both in the Winter Weather Advisory too. Think 1-3 inches
of snow could accumulate in the Guadalupes, and 1-2 inches of
sleet and snow over the Davis Mountains, and northern portions of
Eddy and Lea counties. Steep lapse rates around 7 C/km and modest
instability around h75 will exist over southwest Texas tonight, so
will continue to mention isolated thunder. If any thunderstorms
develop near or over the mountains, it could enhance precipitation
rates. Will alert subsequent shifts and have them monitor.

There is still a good chance of rain over most of the forecast area
Monday and Monday night as the upper low nears, then moves over the
region.  Again, the latest raw data and MOS guidance have warmed low
and high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, which will likely put
a crimp in precipitation changing to the freezing or frozen variety.
The locations which stand the best chance of seeing precipitation
change to sleet or snow Monday night are the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeastern New Mexico plains.  Northernmost portions of the
Permian Basin could also see precipitation change to sleet or snow
late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  At this time, it appears
snowfall amounts would be 1-2 inches at best.  This may especially
be true for portions of southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern
Permian Basin Monday night since there is some indications isolated
thunderstorms could support a burst of heavier precipitation, cool
the atmospheric column and change precipitation more rapidly to
snow.  Will keep a mix of precipitation in all of these areas, but
due to the questionable surface temperatures, will not issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for these time frames, yet.  Moderate to
locally heavy rainfall could occur over easternmost portions of the
forecast area Monday night, and will make a mention of this in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook for now since it appears the main axis of
heavier rainfall will fall just east of our County Warning Area.

The forecast will be dry from Tuesday night through the rest of the
week as the ua trough moves east of the region.  Another upper
trough is progged to approach Saturday, and move overhead next
Saturday night/Sunday.  Some models are indicating thunderstorms
developing over the area with this trough, but will wait and see how
much consistency models can muster the next couple of days, before
increasing rain chances much.  Temperatures will warm to near normal
Wednesday, then above normal through next weekend Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     39  44  36  41 /  30  80  90  40
Carlsbad                       36  36  34  44 /  90  80  50  20
Dryden                         51  53  43  56 /  30  70  70  10
Fort Stockton                  38  39  36  48 /  50  70  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 28  35  31  41 /  90  60  40  20
Hobbs                          33  35  32  39 /  60  90  70  30
Marfa                          38  47  34  49 /  40  60  50  10
Midland Intl Airport           38  41  34  42 /  40  80  70  30
Odessa                         35  39  34  42 /  40  80  70  30
Wink                           41  41  35  46 /  50  80  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Monday for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to noon CST /11
     AM MST/ Monday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$