Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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287
FXUS64 KMAF 292339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
539 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish this evening, with southwest winds expected to
remain AOB 12KT overnight. Winds will increase again by 18Z, with
gusts to 25-30KT possible through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 135 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Shortwave trough swinging across the area this afternoon followed by
near zonal flow for the next couple of days before a stronger trough
moves onshore the West Coast Sunday.  As this troughs moves east
look for SW flow to increase across the region.

Have had the development of a surface trough today causing the wind
to swing around to the W/SW.  Expect winds aloft to increase
Saturday with 700mb wind of 50kts or greater for western portions of
the area.  Currently there is a High Wind Watch starting Saturday
for the Guadalupe mountains and Van Horn region... with the watch
for the mountains running through Tuesday.  It appears there will be
multiple high wind episodes over the next few days so will upgrade
the watch to a warning.  May end up seeing Wind Advisories for
surrounding areas for the first of the week as should see a strong
Pacific front blow through Monday.

Temperatures will continue the recent trend of unseasonably warm
readings.  May come near record temperatures on Saturday as some
locations see highs climb into the 80s.  However it will be
significantly cooler Tuesday behind the Pac front when temps are 20
degrees cooler.

Rain chances do not look good this week.  May see some showers creep
into the western edge of the CWA Monday... otherwise looking at a
dry forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry, warm and windy across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
SE NM Plains this afternoon has resulted in critical fire weather
conditions with min RH`s 10-15 percent and winds near or above
20mphmost areas. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains but decided to go ahead and add SE NM Plains
given a couple of locations are hitting RFW criteria this afternoon.
The Warning will run through 30/06Z at which point wind speeds and
temperatures decrease. Above normal low temperatures Saturday
morning will foster poor recovery over the higher terrain, and fair
over the plains.

Saturday, westerly winds will increase across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas ahead of a very strong upper level storm
system. Afternoon temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal, will
push minimum RH`s to the 5 to 15 percent range over the forecast
area. This will result in critical fire weather conditions through
Saturday afternoon so will continue the Fire Weather Watch for all
but the Presidio Valley, Big Bend region, Terrell County and eastern
Permian Basin. Saturday night RH recovery will be fairly poor
areawide as surface winds remain elevated and RH`s only rebound to
near 30 percent. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible
once again Sunday, and maybe to a lesser extent on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  79  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  79  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         39  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  80  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  67  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  76  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  72  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         36  78  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  80  45  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Saturday for Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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