Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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171
FXUS64 KMAF 111102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue with increasing high clouds from the west.  A
weak frontal boundary is poised to sag down into the area this
morning with the wind briefly coming around to the north.  By
this evening the front will lift back to the north as a south wind
returns.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The closed low off the West Coast continues to push eastward towards
California and will eventually pass West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico later this weekend. Mid and upper level Pacific moisture
streaming into the area ahead of the low has resulted in clouds
around 20-25k ft AGL this morning and we will continue to see
scattered to broken mid and high clouds through the weekend. A weak
cold front entered our northern counties overnight. Surface
pressure rises are not impressive behind this front around 2-3
mb/3 hour. Without any real push, it will stall roughly north of
I-20 today, keeping afternoon high temperatures slightly cooler
in the upper 80s.

Expect low 90s across lower elevations today as cloud cover
will have a slight limiting effect on insolation again. Elevated
to near critical fire weather concerns will continue across most
of the area through the weekend with afternoon high temperatures
dropping relative humidities into the single digits to teens.
Winds still appear below critical levels until Sunday when a
deepening lee surface trough increases wind speeds. Please see the
fire weather discussion below for more information.

Warm and dry conditions expected to continue through the weekend. Lee
surface troughing will aid in the development of a dry line today
and Saturday, which will mix to roughly a Big Spring-Crane-
Sanderson line Friday and Saturday afternoons. The dry line will
slosh back and forth across eastern portions of the forecast area
before Sunday`s system provides enough push to move it into west
and north central Texas. Despite subtle passing disturbances over
the area this afternoon/evening and tomorrow, the cap along the
dry line is strong with 200-400 j/kg CIN and potential for
convection east of the dryline in extreme eastern portions of the
forecast area remain low.

As the previously mentioned closed low crosses across Baja
California Saturday afternoon, it will open into a shortwave trough
and continue to translate across Arizona and New Mexico. High winds
in the Guadalupe Mountains will be possible Saturday and Sunday as
mid level winds increase ahead of this system. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 hours faster with shortwave than NAM and bring the shortwave
across Sunday afternoon. These timing differences appear to have
little impact on the progress of Sunday night`s front, however, with
the front entering the Permian Basin before midnight and pushing
through the entire area by midday Monday. Expect strong winds
behind the cold front with widespread wind advisory conditions
possible on Monday (northerly winds 25-35 mph). Blowing dust will
also be a concern on Monday with these elevated wind speeds.
Models attempt to break out precipitation with a secondary wave
Monday evening mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Based on
the track of this secondary wave and very dry forecast soundings,
drier air over the forecast area looks to prevent any potential
development.

Cold air advection behind the front will keep temperatures much
cooler Monday and Tuesday, with near freezing temperatures possible
Tuesday morning as a surface high settles in over the region. While
the average date of the last freeze in Midland is March 29, our
latest freeze on record occurred last year on May 3. Anyone with
planting interests will want to continue to monitor the forecast.
Temperatures look to moderate towards the middle of next week with
potentially windy conditions towards the end of next week with the
passage of the next system in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will remain over most of the region as the dryline will
be located to the east.  20ft wind speeds will be unimpressive today
as a weak front moves down into the area early today and then lifts
out again during the afternoon.  The only area that could approach
critical fire wx conditions this afternoon will be the Guadalupe
Mtns.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for there today.
Conditions will remain very dry across the area Saturday and a
developing surface trough across the area will result in an
increasing southwest wind over the area.  Southeast NM... the
Guadalupe Mtns and Van Horn may reach critical fire wx conditions
Saturday... will continue the Fire Weather Watch.  These dry and
windy conditions will be possible again Sunday across a larger area
and another Fire Wx Watch may be necessary.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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