Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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454
FXUS64 KMAF 242341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with diminishing winds prevail across the area this
evening. Expect VFR conditions to continue through tomorrow
morning with winds backing to southeast shortly after 00Z at most
sites this evening. There is a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight tonight, mainly east of a Midland to
Fort Stockton line. Have not mentioned these overnight as coverage
is expected to be fairly limited. As an upper level wave moves
through tonight into tomorrow, the dryline will again push east,
turning winds back to the west/northwest with gusts between 15
and 20 knots by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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