Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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906
FXUS64 KMAF 061816
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
116 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...

Please see the 06/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Windy conditions at area TAFs will continue into the overnight
hours. Scattered, high-based thunderstorms will develop west of a
KCNM-KINK-KFST line around 21Z and move east. These storms are
expected to produce little rain but will produce downburst winds,
which in turn will loft localized blowing dust, maybe down into
MVFR category. After sunset look for thunderstorm activity to wind
down with clearing skies. Have introduced LLWS at KMAF as a stout
LLJ develops after midnight over the Permian Basin. Winds should
drop off around sunrise for a few hours, then pick up again as the
Sun comes up and heating and mixing recommences. A surface trough/
dryline will develop Saturday morning and move east. Behind the
dryline, winds will veer around to a southwesterly direction at
KCNM and KPEQ with all other terminals maintaining a southerly
direction.


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1128 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to increase PoPs this afternoon west, and to issue a Wind
Advisory and Red Flag Warning.

DISCUSSION...

A cutoff low over SoCal this morning will ease eastward today and
likely result in a variety of weather over southeastern New Mexico
and west Texas.  Despite a dearth of low level moisture over the
higher terrain, mid level moisture will increase over these areas
this afternoon as a discrete shortwave trough ejects northeastward
toward the region ahead of the cutoff low.  Temperatures will warm
to above normal levels this afternoon, with the higher terrain
providing a heated low level focus for thunderstorm development.
Expect widely scattered thunderstorms to develop anywhere from the
Big Bend region around 06/21-06/22Z, to the Davis Mountains/Marfa
Plateau to the Guadalupe Mountains in SE NM.  Since moisture will be
scarce, only weak thunderstorms are expected, but a hot, dry
subcloud layer will likely yield storms producing strong, gusty
winds.  As nightfall approaches, a low level jet will increase over
the Trans Pecos and into the higher terrain.  This upslope flow will
bring a modest increase of moisture.  Thus convection should become
a little more widespread over the higher terrain of west Texas and
into southeastern New Mexico.  Strong wind gusts will still be
possible with thunderstorms after 07/00Z, and perhaps a few storms
yielding hail and brief heavy rainfall.

Analysis of this mornings forecast soundings indicate that storm
bases this afternoon will be quite high (around 550 mb).  Above the
LFC, forecast vertical motions in the -20C to -30C layer are
sufficient for charge generation.  However, little rainfall is
expected to make it to the ground.  As a result, dry lightning is
expected with the storms this afternoon, particularly along the
downdraft/updraft interface.  Should a few lightning strikes ignite
dry fuels at the ground, gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow
winds will exacerbate control.

As of 06/15Z the surface pressure gradient over the Permian Basin
has already tightened enough for 20-25kt sustained at several
locations.  Later this afternoon, the surface pressure gradient will
tighten more, and an h85 jet will increase to near 40kt by 07/00Z,
and 40-50kt by 07/03Z.  Think southeast surface winds will rise to
30 mph sustained over the Permian Basin this afternoon, with these
higher wind speeds spreading northwestward across the Upper Trans
Pecos and over SE NM around 07/00Z.  Will go ahead and issue a Wind
Advisory for these areas that will be in effect from 06/21Z-07/06Z.
The surface pressure gradient should begin to slacken by then, and
the low level jet will begin to transition eastward with time.
Cooling temperatures will also allow surface winds to decouple a
little from the low level jet.  Will send an update shortly for
these changes.

FIRE WEATHER...

Surface south to southwesterly winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and
across Eddy and Chaves counties will exceed 20 mph this afternoon
while surface RH readings fall to the single digits and lower teens,
thus warranting a Red Flag warning this afternoon.  Further east
into Lea county and south into Reeves county, RH readings are low
but surface winds won`t be strong enough to hit Red Flag Criteria.
With high-based thunderstorms producing dry lightning strikes and
gusty and erratic winds from southeastern New Mexico south into the
Big Bend, concerns here will be ignitions of dry fuel as well as
control problems.  Will mention this in the updated FWF.  The Red
Flag Warning will be in effect from 06/18Z to 07/03Z.

The surface pressure gradient will increase late this afternoon into
SE NM and the Guadalupes, with winds becoming southeast and
increasing to 20 to 30 mph.  The shift in wind direction and speed
could also contribute to fire weather concerns through the
termination of the RFW.  Recovery tonight will be fair over most of
the forecast area, and good especially in areas that receive
rainfall.

Warm, dry and windy conditions will occur again Saturday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.  The issuance of a Red Flag Warning in
these areas on Saturday will hinge upon whether they receive any
rainfall overnight, but if they do not, critical fire weather
conditions are looking likely.  Recovery will be poor Saturday night
along and west of the Pecos River, except over the Lower Trans Pecos
into the Big Bend region, with good recovery east.  Temperatures
will remain above normal Sunday with critical fire weather
conditions again possible Sunday afternoon along and west of a
Lamesa to Crane line.  Later shifts will have to refine this area
since thunderstorms along a dryline between now and then may change
it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  60  87  65 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       92  59  86  54 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         90  64  88  68 /  20  20  30  30
Fort Stockton                  92  65  92  63 /  20  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 86  55  76  53 /  20  30  10   0
Hobbs                          87  58  84  52 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                          86  51  85  52 /  20  30  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           87  62  89  64 /  10  20  20  30
Odessa                         88  64  87  64 /  10  20  20  30
Wink                           94  62  92  59 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Andrews-Crane-Ector-
     Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

70/67/70

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