Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271100

600 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


Mostly clear skies and light southwest winds the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/

Light winds, clear skies and cool temps tonight with surface high
pressure in place. Dry NW flow aloft will continue today with an
upper trough to the east and upper ridging to the west. At the
surface, lee troughing will extend southward through eastern NM
today and downsloping SW winds at the surface will become more
established areawide. As a result, afternoon high temperatures will
rebound to the upper 70s and 80s.

Upper ridging (to the west) and 850mb thermal ridge will shift
eastward Saturday, allowing temps to warm to the upper 80s to near
90 across the CWA. Could see the same for Sunday, however models
suggest a cold front may affect highs depending on timing of the
northerly wind shift. As of now, the front looks to enter northern
zones Sunday evening so we have a good chance of at least warming
into the 80s most areas and 90s south near the Rio Grande. Will
continue to monitor the arrival time of the front for any
adjustments to the highs in future forecast packages. Conditions
will be slightly cooler on Monday.

Still not expecting any precip with the initial frontal passage
however an eastward moving upper disturbance (advertised by the
GFS and ECMWF) may provide some support for thunderstorm
development Monday night and Tuesday. Confidence is increasing
regarding thunderstorm chances but still a little uncertain of the
outcome so will continue with fairly low PoPs for now. Beyond
Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return under
zonal flow aloft.






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