Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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673
FXUS64 KMAF 212344
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight through
Saturday morning.  Low ceilings and visibilities will be possible
starting around 03z and continuing until around 18z.  Fog is
possible from about 09z to 15z.  Thunderstorms will also be possible
during this time, especially for MAF.  Thunderstorms will also be
possible into Saturday afternoon for MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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