Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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408
FXUS64 KMAF 011247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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