Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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012
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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345
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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950
FXUS64 KMAF 190454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Plains and is forecast to push southwest
toward the Pecos River by 12z Friday. A period of MVFR ceilings
and or visibility is expected at KMAF, KINK, KHOB near and behind
this front toward 12z Friday. KMAF is expected to clear last and
could take by early Friday afternoon to improve to VFR. Across
KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST VFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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244
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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860
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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164
FXUS64 KMAF 181718
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR the first 12 hours of the TAF period, then IFR/LIFR conditions
north of the area will move in behind a cold front due to arrive
06-12Z. There is the potential for dense fog to develop but an
upper trough will bring scattered showers that could keep the
lower levels mixed enough to prevent this from occurring;
therefore, stayed on the higher end of LIFR conditions for now. No
significant improvement is expected before the end of the TAF.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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856
FXUS64 KMAF 181110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals throughout the day and this evening.  A cold front
will move into the area, with MVFR ceilings/visibility in fog and
rain possible behind it.  Since these lower conditions are not
expected until 19/09Z and after, will not make a mention in this
issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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200
FXUS64 KMAF 181010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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863
FXUS64 KMAF 180503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1103 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR tonight through Thursday.  Low clouds east of the area this
morning should stay east of all TAF sites Thursday morning.
Generally light wind tonight should veer around to the NW during
the day and finally east tomorrow night as backdoor front moves in
toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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778
FXUS64 KMAF 172337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will prevail at area terminals with the
exception of FST at the start of the TAF period. Gusts should
quickly die down after sunset as the boundary layer decouples and
should remain westerly overnight, with veering to a more northerly
component throughout the day Thursday. VFR conditions should prevail
with a mid-level ceiling becoming established tomorrow morning.
Forecast models hint at the possibility of a small window of IFR
ceilings at MAF and INK tomorrow around sunrise but confidence is
low and have decided to omit from this TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

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283
FXUS64 KMAF 172050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 40  61  38  52  /   0   0  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              43  65  41  53  /  10   0  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                40  60  36  57  /   0  10  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  45  67  48  62  /   0   0  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  62  40  57  /   0   0  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  54  34  52  /   0  10  30  10
HOBBS NM                   37  58  34  53  /   0  10  30  10
MARFA TX                   31  61  30  55  /   0   0  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  64  39  52  /  10   0  40  20
ODESSA TX                  40  63  39  53  /  10   0  40  20
WINK TX                    38  63  38  57  /   0   0  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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719
FXUS64 KMAF 171615
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1015 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc winds will veer to SW this afternoon, scouring out the lower
levels to VFR all terminals, and continue veering to W after
sunrise Thursday. Buffer soundings suggest LIFR stratus trying to
develop KHOB/KINK shortly after sunrise, but this will be brief.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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947
FXUS64 KMAF 171108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to continue for MAF through the morning
hours and ceilings in HOB should lift earlier.  Winds will shift to
the southwest today and become elevated and gusty this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings redeveloping just before
12z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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331
FXUS64 KMAF 170925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  40  61  37  /  20   0   0  30
BIG SPRING TX              61  43  66  41  /  20  10   0  40
CARLSBAD NM                63  41  59  36  /  20   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  46  67  49  /  10   0   0  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  43  62  40  /  10   0   0  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  37  54  33  /  20   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   58  36  58  33  /  20   0  10  30
MARFA TX                   63  30  61  31  /  10   0   0  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  41  64  40  /  20  10   0  40
ODESSA TX                  63  41  63  38  /  20  10   0  40
WINK TX                    66  38  63  38  /  10   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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193
FXUS64 KMAF 170523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Considerable mid and high clouds will continue to move across the
area from the west the rest of the night and through sunrise
tomorrow.  Low clouds will move in from the SE overnight and should
spread across all of the region by 12z... MVFR cigs expected.  SE
wind should veer around to the S/SW tomorrow as new leeside trough
develops.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 170006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Moisture return from generally ESE flow at the surface and
associated isentropic ascent will result in MVFR ceilings tonight
at areal terminals. Surface winds will continue veering from
easterly tonight to predominately westerly tomorrow afternoon as a
surface ridge move out of the area. Westerly flow is expected to
result in clearing to VFR conditions by late morning except at
INK, MAF, & FST where marginal MVFR ceilings may persist through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

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282
FXUS64 KMAF 162110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  60  38  60  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  59  40  62  /  10  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  65  40  61  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  61  43  64  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  67  41  65  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  38  54  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   35  61  36  59  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   33  62  33  59  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  62  37  63  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  39  62  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    41  65  37  63  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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706
FXUS64 KMAF 161622
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will continue veering to the south over the next 24 hours
as the sfc ridge continues moving east. A weak warm front will
push into the area overnight on return flow, w/isentropic upglide
bringing MVFR stratus into the region beginning mid-evening.
Buffer soundings suggest cigs improving to VFR by the end of the
forecast period everywhere but KMAF, KFST, and KINK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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260
FXUS64 KMAF 161109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be out of the east to southeast throughout the period
with some elevated winds in FST and MAF.  There is a slight chance
of MVFR ceilings developing around 06z Wednesday; otherwise,
scattered to broken high cloud will be over the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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785
FXUS64 KMAF 160900
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  41  60  38  /   0   0  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  44  60  40  /   0   0  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  38  64  40  /   0  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  48  61  44  /   0   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  42  68  40  /   0   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  40  58  38  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  36  60  36  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   57  34  63  33  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  43  61  37  /   0   0  10   0
ODESSA TX                  54  44  61  38  /   0   0  10   0
WINK TX                    57  40  65  37  /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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441
FXUS64 KMAF 160512
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1109 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
light and variable overnight then become easterly to southeasterly
by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

UPDATE...

Temperatures are falling quickly over northern Lea Co and the
Marfa Plateau and are already near their forecasted lows. Have
updated to lower overnight temps a few degrees at these locations.
Also increased the cloud cover over the area as cirrus spreads
across the area from the west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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245
FXUS64 KMAF 160220
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Temperatures are falling quickly over northern Lea Co and the
Marfa Plateau and are already near their forecasted lows. Have
updated to lower overnight temps a few degrees at these locations.
Also increased the cloud cover over the area as cirrus spreads
across the area from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  54  39  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  57  43  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                34  59  35  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  61  46  55  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  41  63  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          36  51  42  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   31  54  37  58  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  61  32  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  56  41  59  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  35  59  41  62  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    33  62  41  65  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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182
FXUS64 KMAF 152309
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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811
FXUS64 KMAF 152045
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  54  39  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  57  43  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                34  59  35  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  61  46  55  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  41  63  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          36  51  42  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   33  54  37  58  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  61  32  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  56  41  59  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  35  59  41  62  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    33  62  41  65  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/44

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438
FXUS64 KMAF 151741
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A gradual surface wind shift to the northeast to east will occur
this evening into Tuesday at TAF locations as a cold front moves into the
area and high pressure builds across Southeast New Mexico and
Southwest Texas.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low/trough that brought the wind to the area yesterday is
moving off to the northeast this morning with high pressure building
in behind it.  This will result in mild wx for the region the next
few days.  Another upper trough moving down the West Coast Wednesday
will swing over AZ and into NM on Thursday bringing our next shot of
rain.  A third upper trough dives down across the Rockies over the
weekend and may bring colder wx and another chance of precipitation
to the region.

Will start the day on the backside of the Pacific front with a west
wind across the area.  High dewpts have been pushed well to the east
with a dry airmass over the region.  A backdoor front will push in
tonight as a surface ridge builds south.  This will result in an
east wind across the area and cooler temperatures Tuesday.  The wind
will slowly come back around to the south and temps will begin to
warm as a new leeside trough develops.

High temperatures will be in the 60s today falling to the 50s for
much of the area on Tuesday.  Temps slowly warm Wednesday and
Thursday before another Pac front sweeps through early Fri knocking
highs back into the 50s for the weekend.  Lows will generally be in
the 30s and 40s.

Rain chances start Wednesday night ahead of the next upper trough
and continue through Friday.  Have another shot of rain starting
Sunday night with the third upper trough this week.  Currently
this last trough looks to have the best chance of being a rain
producer but it is a long ways out and that could change.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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300
FXUS64 KMAF 151123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with some increase in highs clouds from the west during the
afternoon. Wind will generally be NW as surface ridge builds down
across the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low/trough that brought the wind to the area yesterday is
moving off to the northeast this morning with high pressure building
in behind it.  This will result in mild wx for the region the next
few days.  Another upper trough moving down the West Coast Wednesday
will swing over AZ and into NM on Thursday bringing our next shot of
rain.  A third upper trough dives down across the Rockies over the
weekend and may bring colder wx and another chance of precipitation
to the region.

Will start the day on the backside of the Pacific front with a west
wind across the area.  High dewpts have been pushed well to the east
with a dry airmass over the region.  A backdoor front will push in
tonight as a surface ridge builds south.  This will result in an
east wind across the area and cooler temperatures Tuesday.  The wind
will slowly come back around to the south and temps will begin to
warm as a new leeside trough develops.

High temperatures will be in the 60s today falling to the 50s for
much of the area on Tuesday.  Temps slowly warm Wednesday and
Thursday before another Pac front sweeps through early Fri knocking
highs back into the 50s for the weekend.  Lows will generally be in
the 30s and 40s.

Rain chances start Wednesday night ahead of the next upper trough
and continue through Friday.  Have another shot of rain starting
Sunday night with the third upper trough this week.  Currently
this last trough looks to have the best chance of being a rain
producer but it is a long ways out and that could change.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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623
FXUS64 KMAF 150913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
313 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low/trough that brought the wind to the area yesterday is
moving off to the northeast this morning with high pressure building
in behind it.  This will result in mild wx for the region the next
few days.  Another upper trough moving down the West Coast Wednesday
will swing over AZ and into NM on Thursday bringing our next shot of
rain.  A third upper trough dives down across the Rockies over the
weekend and may bring colder wx and another chance of precipitation
to the region.

Will start the day on the backside of the Pacific front with a west
wind across the area.  High dewpts have been pushed well to the east
with a dry airmass over the region.  A backdoor front will push in
tonight as a surface ridge builds south.  This will result in an
east wind across the area and cooler temperatures Tuesday.  The wind
will slowly come back around to the south and temps will begin to
warm as a new leeside trough develops.

High temperatures will be in the 60s today falling to the 50s for
much of the area on Tuesday.  Temps slowly warm Wednesday and
Thursday before another Pac front sweeps through early Fri knocking
highs back into the 50s for the weekend.  Lows will generally be in
the 30s and 40s.

Rain chances start Wednesday night ahead of the next upper trough
and continue through Friday.  Have another shot of rain starting
Sunday night with the third upper trough this week.  Currently
this last trough looks to have the best chance of being a rain
producer but it is a long ways out and that could change.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  30  54  37  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              61  32  54  41  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  32  57  36  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  38  60  42  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  36  60  41  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  33  54  39  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   62  31  55  35  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  26  59  32  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  31  55  39  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  62  32  55  40  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    66  31  59  36  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/72

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196
FXUS64 KMAF 150450
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1050 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to modest west winds and VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

UPDATE...

Grids have been updated to expire the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory out west. Winds have decreased at most locations this
evening and should continue to do so overnight. Guadalupe Pass may
see winds near 45 mph for another hour or so before quickly
diminishing around midnight. Everything else is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough extending from
ID SE to the Texas/OK Panhandles, resulting in a classic comma
cloud/baroclinic leaf over the Srn Plains.  The Pac front powered
thru KMAF at around 12Z, w/little fanfare noted except for weak
convection over the nrn/ern periphery of the FA.  Sfc obs show winds
approaching warning/advisory criteria over the Guadalupes and
adjacent plains, w/short-term models suggesting these criteria will
be met before the day is out.  Attm, see no reason to extend
warnings/advisories beyond 00Z, but next shift can extend if
necessary.  Although clr skies overnight will promote efficient
radiational cooling, forecast sfc pressure gradients should remain
tight enough to keep temps from dropping too far.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as the next
upper trough digs down along the west coast.  CAA is forecast to
continue thru Tuesday as sfc flow veers, resulting in blo-normal
temps Tuesday afternoon before return flow resumes.  Wednesday
night, the ECMWF/CMC bring a shortwave thru the region, whereas the
GFS/DGEX do not, which could bring a slight chance of -SHRA to the
eastern zones.  Thursday into Thursday night, the main trough
approaches and moves thru.  Models are still all over the place
w/temps as the trough moves thru, with the ECMWF still hinting at
frozen precip nrn zones.  We`ll continue w/-SHRA unless other models
follow.  The rest of the extended should see temps hovering around
normal, although the colder ECMWF may be weighting temps down a bit
much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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231
FXUS64 KMAF 150319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
919 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.UPDATE...

Grids have been updated to expire the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory out west. Winds have decreased at most locations this
evening and should continue to do so overnight. Guadalupe Pass may
see winds near 45 mph for another hour or so before quickly
diminishing around midnight. Everything else is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will subside shortly after sunset and remain
light to modest the remainder of the TAF period. VFR then next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough extending from
ID SE to the Texas/OK Panhandles, resulting in a classic comma
cloud/baroclinic leaf over the Srn Plains.  The Pac front powered
thru KMAF at around 12Z, w/little fanfare noted except for weak
convection over the nrn/ern periphery of the FA.  Sfc obs show winds
approaching warning/advisory criteria over the Guadalupes and
adjacent plains, w/short-term models suggesting these criteria will
be met before the day is out.  Attm, see no reason to extend
warnings/advisories beyond 00Z, but next shift can extend if
necessary.  Although clr skies overnight will promote efficient
radiational cooling, forecast sfc pressure gradients should remain
tight enough to keep temps from dropping too far.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as the next
upper trough digs down along the west coast.  CAA is forecast to
continue thru Tuesday as sfc flow veers, resulting in blo-normal
temps Tuesday afternoon before return flow resumes.  Wednesday
night, the ECMWF/CMC bring a shortwave thru the region, whereas the
GFS/DGEX do not, which could bring a slight chance of -SHRA to the
eastern zones.  Thursday into Thursday night, the main trough
approaches and moves thru.  Models are still all over the place
w/temps as the trough moves thru, with the ECMWF still hinting at
frozen precip nrn zones.  We`ll continue w/-SHRA unless other models
follow.  The rest of the extended should see temps hovering around
normal, although the colder ECMWF may be weighting temps down a bit
much.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  63  34  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  61  36  55  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  59  38  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  68  42  61  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  64  36  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  54  37  54  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   34  62  34  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  65  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  62  35  56  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  62  36  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  65  33  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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119
FXUS64 KMAF 142306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will subside shortly after sunset and remain
light to modest the remainder of the TAF period. VFR then next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough extending from
ID SE to the Texas/OK Panhandles, resulting in a classic comma
cloud/baroclinic leaf over the Srn Plains.  The Pac front powered
thru KMAF at around 12Z, w/little fanfare noted except for weak
convection over the nrn/ern periphery of the FA.  Sfc obs show winds
approaching warning/advisory criteria over the Guadalupes and
adjacent plains, w/short-term models suggesting these criteria will
be met before the day is out.  Attm, see no reason to extend
warnings/advisories beyond 00Z, but next shift can extend if
necessary.  Although clr skies overnight will promote efficient
radiational cooling, forecast sfc pressure gradients should remain
tight enough to keep temps from dropping too far.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as the next
upper trough digs down along the west coast.  CAA is forecast to
continue thru Tuesday as sfc flow veers, resulting in blo-normal
temps Tuesday afternoon before return flow resumes.  Wednesday
night, the ECMWF/CMC bring a shortwave thru the region, whereas the
GFS/DGEX do not, which could bring a slight chance of -SHRA to the
eastern zones.  Thursday into Thursday night, the main trough
approaches and moves thru.  Models are still all over the place
w/temps as the trough moves thru, with the ECMWF still hinting at
frozen precip nrn zones.  We`ll continue w/-SHRA unless other models
follow.  The rest of the extended should see temps hovering around
normal, although the colder ECMWF may be weighting temps down a bit
much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

10

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744
FXUS64 KMAF 142045
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough extending from
ID SE to the Texas/OK Panhandles, resulting in a classic comma
cloud/baroclinic leaf over the Srn Plains.  The Pac front powered
thru KMAF at around 12Z, w/little fanfare noted except for weak
convection over the nrn/ern periphery of the FA.  Sfc obs show winds
approaching warning/advisory criteria over the Guadalupes and
adjacent plains, w/short-term models suggesting these criteria will
be met before the day is out.  Attm, see no reason to extend
warnings/advisories beyond 00Z, but next shift can extend if
necessary.  Although clr skies overnight will promote efficient
radiational cooling, forecast sfc pressure gradients should remain
tight enough to keep temps from dropping too far.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as the next
upper trough digs down along the west coast.  CAA is forecast to
continue thru Tuesday as sfc flow veers, resulting in blo-normal
temps Tuesday afternoon before return flow resumes.  Wednesday
night, the ECMWF/CMC bring a shortwave thru the region, whereas the
GFS/DGEX do not, which could bring a slight chance of -SHRA to the
eastern zones.  Thursday into Thursday night, the main trough
approaches and moves thru.  Models are still all over the place
w/temps as the trough moves thru, with the ECMWF still hinting at
frozen precip nrn zones.  We`ll continue w/-SHRA unless other models
follow.  The rest of the extended should see temps hovering around
normal, although the colder ECMWF may be weighting temps down a bit
much.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  63  34  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  61  36  55  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  59  38  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  68  42  61  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  64  36  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  54  37  54  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   34  62  34  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  65  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  62  35  56  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  62  36  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  65  33  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

03/44

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718
FXUS64 KMAF 141738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty west winds are expected at TAF locations this afternoon,
gradually diminishing this evening. VFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough will sweep across the area today.  Will get
very little rainfall with this system and mainly wind.  After this
trough passes east will have brief ridging aloft before another
strong trough swings across the western states on Tuesday.  As this
trough approaches rain chances will increase across the area
beginning mid week.

Have a screaming LLJ out of the south this morning with 50kt winds
1000ft off the deck with gusts close to 30kts at the surface.
Currently some meager showers over the northern Permian Basin and
Lea Co.  After sunrise any developing showers/storms should be
limited to the NE Permian Basin and quickly leave the area.  Low
clouds remain over the east with high dewpts but not much fog.

A Pacific front will move through this morning with a brisk west wind
behind it scouring out the low level moisture.  As of 09z can see a
boundary in Ector Co. rapidly moving east but this may not be the
front as Wink behind it still has a south wind.  Wind shift looks to
be farther back to the west with very gusty west winds across SE NM.
Will continue the high wind warning for the Guadalupe Mountains today
and the wind advisory for Culberson Co.  Will also add Eddy Co. and
northern and central Lea Co. to the advisory.  Could see some
blowing dust during the afternoon mainly for SE NM and NW Permian
Basin or anywhere there is plowed fields.

High temperatures will be cooler in the 60s today behind the Pac front
but still well above normal.  Monday had been more clear cut with
the surface ridge pushing a polar front through the area but now
there is disagreement in the models showing an erratic wind field.
It appears the cooler air may be delayed to after the wind shift.
Either way it appears that by Tuesday it will now be cooler and
closer to normal with highs in the 50s.  These cooler readings look
to extend through the end of the week with highs in the 50s north
and 60s south.

Rain chances return again beginning Wednesday with the next upper
trough and continue through Friday.  Currently 2014 at MAF is 7th on
the list of all time driest years... will take a good rain to knock us
out of the top 10.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  61  31  54  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  62  33  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                32  64  33  59  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  40  68  40  60  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  65  37  62  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  55  35  53  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   31  61  31  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  62  26  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  62  31  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  33  63  31  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    33  66  30  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

03/44

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584
FXUS64 KMAF 141143
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface winds will shift to the west and become gusty at TAF
locations as a Pacific front moves across the area. Clearing skies
are expected across the area with VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough will sweep across the area today.  Will get
very little rainfall with this system and mainly wind.  After this
trough passes east will have brief ridging aloft before another
strong trough swings across the western states on Tuesday.  As this
trough approaches rain chances will increase across the area
beginning mid week.

Have a screaming LLJ out of the south this morning with 50kt winds
1000ft off the deck with gusts close to 30kts at the surface.
Currently some meager showers over the northern Permian Basin and
Lea Co.  After sunrise any developing showers/storms should be
limited to the NE Permian Basin and quickly leave the area.  Low
clouds remain over the east with high dewpts but not much fog.

A Pacific front will move through this morning with a brisk west wind
behind it scouring out the low level moisture.  As of 09z can see a
boundary in Ector Co. rapidly moving east but this may not be the
front as Wink behind it still has a south wind.  Wind shift looks to
be farther back to the west with very gusty west winds across SE NM.
Will continue the high wind warning for the Guadalupe Mountains today
and the wind advisory for Culberson Co.  Will also add Eddy Co. and
northern and central Lea Co. to the advisory.  Could see some
blowing dust during the afternoon mainly for SE NM and NW Permian
Basin or anywhere there is plowed fields.

High temperatures will be cooler in the 60s today behind the Pac front
but still well above normal.  Monday had been more clear cut with
the surface ridge pushing a polar front through the area but now
there is disagreement in the models showing an erratic wind field.
It appears the cooler air may be delayed to after the wind shift.
Either way it appears that by Tuesday it will now be cooler and
closer to normal with highs in the 50s.  These cooler readings look
to extend through the end of the week with highs in the 50s north
and 60s south.

Rain chances return again beginning Wednesday with the next upper
trough and continue through Friday.  Currently 2014 at MAF is 7th on
the list of all time driest years... will take a good rain to knock us
out of the top 10.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

03

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130
FXUS64 KMAF 140943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
343 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough will sweep across the area today.  Will get
very little rainfall with this system and mainly wind.  After this
trough passes east will have brief ridging aloft before another
strong trough swings across the western states on Tuesday.  As this
trough approaches rain chances will increase across the area
beginning mid week.

Have a screaming LLJ out of the south this morning with 50kt winds
1000ft off the deck with gusts close to 30kts at the surface.
Currently some meager showers over the northern Permian Basin and
Lea Co.  After sunrise any developing showers/storms should be
limited to the NE Permian Basin and quickly leave the area.  Low
clouds remain over the east with high dewpts but not much fog.

A Pacific front will move through this morning with a brisk west wind
behind it scouring out the low level moisture.  As of 09z can see a
boundary in Ector Co. rapidly moving east but this may not be the
front as Wink behind it still has a south wind.  Wind shift looks to
be farther back to the west with very gusty west winds across SE NM.
Will continue the high wind warning for the Guadalupe Mountains today
and the wind advisory for Culberson Co.  Will also add Eddy Co. and
northern and central Lea Co. to the advisory.  Could see some
blowing dust during the afternoon mainly for SE NM and NW Permian
Basin or anywhere there is plowed fields.

High temperatures will be cooler in the 60s today behind the Pac front
but still well above normal.  Monday had been more clear cut with
the surface ridge pushing a polar front through the area but now
there is disagreement in the models showing an erratic wind field.
It appears the cooler air may be delayed to after the wind shift.
Either way it appears that by Tuesday it will now be cooler and
closer to normal with highs in the 50s.  These cooler readings look
to extend through the end of the week with highs in the 50s north
and 60s south.

Rain chances return again beginning Wednesday with the next upper
trough and continue through Friday.  Currently 2014 at MAF is 7th on
the list of all time driest years... will take a good rain to knock us
out of the top 10.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  33  61  31  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              64  35  62  33  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                63  32  64  33  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  40  68  40  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  37  65  37  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  32  55  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   61  31  61  31  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   59  25  62  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  33  62  31  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  62  33  63  31  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    65  33  66  30  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

72/72

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795
FXUS64 KMAF 140509
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1109 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
MVFR cigs have overspread the Permian Basin this evening including
KMAF and KHOB. A strong LLJ has developed as a result of a strong
storm system to our west. This will keep winds up most of the
night. A Pacific front will move through later this morning and
help return all terminals to VFR. Strong west winds will accompany
the front with gust over 30 kts possible during the afternoon.
There is a possibility of reduced visibilities due to blowing dust
but expect them to stay above 6SM. Winds will decrease around
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from Noon to 6 PM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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499
FXUS64 KMAF 132256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
A strong storm system continues to gather steam to our west this
evening. Southeasterly winds have already increased ahead of this
system and will continue to do so as a LLJ kicks in later tonight.
Low cigs will also overspread the Permian Basin, mainly affecting
the KHOB and KMAF terminals tonight. A few storms are possible at
KHOB and KMAF, but it looks too isolated to include in the TAFs. Skies
will begin to clear around sunrise as a Pacific cold front moves
through. Winds will likely gust over 30 kts by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs and satellite imagery show fog/stratus persisted yet again
into early afternoon, particularly in the river bottoms, aided by a
variable veil of high cloud retarding diurnal burn-off.  Brief upper
ridging has pushed east of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
response to an upper trough over the intersection of CA/NV/AZ.  All
models are now in good agreement in tilting this feature to the
negative beginning late this afternoon...and pushing it thru the
Texas/OK Panhandles Sunday afternoon.  Convection ahead of the
trough in ern AZ will continue developing thru NM this
afternoon/evening, and move thru the northern zones late tonight.
The NAM is a little more moist and unstable than the GFS, but
forecast soundings of both over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains are not
real impressive, w/mid-lvl LR`s barely cracking 7C/KM.  However,
deep-lyr shear of 45-55 kts and 50-55kt mid-lvl winds will support
organized development across the northern half of the FA, w/small
hail expected.  Given storm motion of 30-40 kts, surfaces should get
just wet enough to put the car washes back in business.

Otherwise, the Pac front should push east of the FA by 18Z, Sunday,
w/windy conditions in its wake.  If the trough were 6-12 hrs slower,
things would be windier Sunday afternoon, but timing is such that a
marginal high wind event will be likely in the Guadalupes.  The NAM
develops a nice mtn wave signature omtns overnight, but retains this
far enough into the afternoon to upgrade the current watch to a
warning.  This is supported by H7 height gradients over SE NM
tightening up to 60m/200nm by 18Z Sunday.  Forecast soundings for
KGDP mix to above H8, where 40+kt westerlies are forecast.  We`ll
also throw in an advisory for TXZ057.  The rest of adjacent plains
should remain under advisory criteria.

Following the trough, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as
the next trough begins developing along the west coast.  Models are
not in very good agreement by this point, but generally bring a weak
upper trough thru the area Wednesday, and a deeper, main trough
Thursday night.  This will result in temps AOB normal into the
extended, w/a chance of convection, mainly Wednesday and Thursday
night.  Yesterday`s ECMWF, which was trending cold enough for frozen
precip w/Thursday night`s trough, has backed off significantly, and
all precip in the extended looks liquid attm.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from Noon to 6 PM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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690
FXUS64 KMAF 132046
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs and satellite imagery show fog/stratus persisted yet again
into early afternoon, particularly in the river bottoms, aided by a
variable veil of high cloud retarding diurnal burn-off.  Brief upper
ridging has pushed east of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
response to an upper trough over the intersection of CA/NV/AZ.  All
models are now in good agreement in tilting this feature to the
negative beginning late this afternoon...and pushing it thru the
Texas/OK Panhandles Sunday afternoon.  Convection ahead of the
trough in ern AZ will continue developing thru NM this
afternoon/evening, and move thru the northern zones late tonight.
The NAM is a little more moist and unstable than the GFS, but
forecast soundings of both over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains are not
real impressive, w/mid-lvl LR`s barely cracking 7C/KM.  However,
deep-lyr shear of 45-55 kts and 50-55kt mid-lvl winds will support
organized development across the northern half of the FA, w/small
hail expected.  Given storm motion of 30-40 kts, surfaces should get
just wet enough to put the car washes back in business.

Otherwise, the Pac front should push east of the FA by 18Z, Sunday,
w/windy conditions in its wake.  If the trough were 6-12 hrs slower,
things would be windier Sunday afternoon, but timing is such that a
marginal high wind event will be likely in the Guadalupes.  The NAM
develops a nice mtn wave signature omtns overnight, but retains this
far enough into the afternoon to upgrade the current watch to a
warning.  This is supported by H7 height gradients over SE NM
tightening up to 60m/200nm by 18Z Sunday.  Forecast soundings for
KGDP mix to above H8, where 40+kt westerlies are forecast.  We`ll
also throw in an advisory for TXZ057.  The rest of adjacent plains
should remain under advisory criteria.

Following the trough, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as
the next trough begins developing along the west coast.  Models are
not in very good agreement by this point, but generally bring a weak
upper trough thru the area Wednesday, and a deeper, main trough
Thursday night.  This will result in temps AOB normal into the
extended, w/a chance of convection, mainly Wednesday and Thursday
night.  Yesterday`s ECMWF, which was trending cold enough for frozen
precip w/Thursday night`s trough, has backed off significantly, and
all precip in the extended looks liquid attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  62  34  61  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  66  37  61  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  62  30  60  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  68  39  68  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  64  37  62  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  52  36  53  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  59  32  60  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  57  26  60  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  63  34  60  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  47  62  34  60  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    46  65  34  67  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from Noon to 6 PM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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425
FXUS64 KMAF 131758
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1158 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Flight conditions have improved to MVFR/VFR for all TAF sites
except for KHOB and KCNM today, with those sites expected to
improve to VFR within the first hour or so of the forecast period.
VFR conditions are then expected to prevail until late this
evening, when low ceilings and fog will once again settle in,
mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB. A strong front approaching
from the west will move through the region overnight tonight and
early Sunday, and while -SHRA/-TSRA is possible mainly after
midnight, uncertainties in coverage preclude mention in current
TAFs. VFR conditions will once again prevail after the front
passes, though strong, gusty west winds in the wake of a front on
Sunday are a concern. Gusts of 30-35KT in the current TAFs are
likely too conservative, but still a good starting point for the
last few hours of the forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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092
FXUS64 KMAF 131120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
520 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCH WITH ZONE PACKAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS.  WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/VSBYS RANGING
FROM LIFR TO VFR... BUT EXPECT MOST SITES TO FALL TO IFR AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.  SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS OVER THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A long wave trough moving over the Great Basin this morning will
swing across AZ/NM this afternoon and evening and bring a chance
of rain to the region.  The trough will push into SE NM/W TX by
early Sunday and swing over the Central Plains by evening.  As this
trough passes on to the east high pressure will build in behind it.
A second and weaker trough will swing into the area midweek with
another shot at rain.

The lower levels have been very moist this week with low clouds and
fog over much of the area every day.  Low clouds should spread
across the Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos by
sunrise.  Have fog in the grid this morning for most of the area but
the lowest visibilites have been over SE NM.  High clouds drifting
in from the west have disrupted some of the development of low
clouds this morning.  Expect low clouds to return over the eastern CWA
again tonight but these should quickly be blown east early Sunday
when a Pacific front sweeps across the area.  Pac front will have a
gusty west wind in its wake... could result in a high wind event in
the Guadalupe Mountains.  Eta cross sections over the Guadalupes
show a mountain wave couplet trying to set up early Sunday.  Latest
guidance has backed off speeds so will monitor for now.

With the sun breaking out yesterday temperatures climbed into the
60s and 70s.  Based on yesterdays highs and with warm 850mb temps
expect another warm day today.  Have raised temps for many locations
today going over guidance.  Tomorrow expect more cooling behind the
front than models are developing so have gone slightly under.  A weak
polar front will move through Monday as the surface ridge builds
south across the area... but by Tuesday this ridge slides east as SE
flow returns ahead of the next system.

Chance of storms starts tonight as good lift from approaching upper
trough meets with a warm and moist airmass. Could see a few storms
linger over the east Sunday due to convergence along the front.  Next
shot of rain looks to be Wednesday and Thursday.  Currently 2014
is the 7th driest year on record for MAF with the year winding down
will take some good rain over the next couple of weeks to knock
us out of the top 10.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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243
FXUS64 KMAF 131022
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A long wave trough moving over the Great Basin this morning will
swing across AZ/NM this afternoon and evening and bring a chance
of rain to the region.  The trough will push into SE NM/W TX by
early Sunday and swing over the Central Plains by evening.  As this
trough passes on to the east high pressure will build in behind it.
A second and weaker trough will swing into the area midweek with
another shot at rain.

The lower levels have been very moist this week with low clouds and
fog over much of the area every day.  Low clouds should spread
across the Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos by
sunrise.  Have fog in the grid this morning for most of the area but
the lowest visibilites have been over SE NM.  High clouds drifting
in from the west have disrupted some of the development of low
clouds this morning.  Expect low clouds to return over the eastern CWA
again tonight but these should quickly be blown east early Sunday
when a Pacific front sweeps across the area.  Pac front will have a
gusty west wind in its wake... could result in a high wind event in
the Guadalupe Mountains.  Eta cross sections over the Guadalupes
show a mountain wave couplet trying to set up early Sunday.  Latest
guidance has backed off speeds so will monitor for now.

With the sun breaking out yesterday temperatures climbed into the
60s and 70s.  Based on yesterdays highs and with warm 850mb temps
expect another warm day today.  Have raised temps for many locations
today going over guidance.  Tomorrow expect more cooling behind the
front than models are developing so have gone slightly under.  A weak
polar front will move through Monday as the surface ridge builds
south across the area... but by Tuesday this ridge slides east as SE
flow returns ahead of the next system.

Chance of storms starts tonight as good lift from approaching upper
trough meets with a warm and moist airmass. Could see a few storms
linger over the east Sunday due to convergence along the front.  Next
shot of rain looks to be Wednesday and Thursday.  Currently 2014
is the 7th driest year on record for MAF with the year winding down
will take some good rain over the next couple of weeks to knock
us out of the top 10.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  46  62  36  /  10  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  52  62  39  /  10  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  40  65  33  /  10  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  53  71  38  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  46  64  37  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  36  52  36  /  10  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   71  43  61  35  /  10  30  10   0
MARFA TX                   71  34  60  26  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  49  63  36  /  10  30  10   0
ODESSA TX                  70  49  64  37  /  10  20  10   0
WINK TX                    74  46  65  36  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72

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638
FXUS64 KMAF 130524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Fog has been slow to develop across the area this evening as high
clouds stream overhead. Visibilities have fallen across SE NM and
may lower even more as we head toward sunrise. MVFR and IFR cigs
are expected to develop over the Permian Basin in the next few
hours. Fog and low clouds should clear by Noon Saturday as
southerly winds increase ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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045
FXUS64 KMAF 122323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Very similar to yesterday evening...the low clouds and fog have
cleared the area this afternoon only to return tonight. Most
terminals will begin to see visibilities decrease before midnight
and then fall quickly to below a mile. KCNM and KFST will be on
the edge of the moisture so only expect a brief period of fog and
low cigs at these sites. VFR conditions will return to all
terminals by 13/19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has edged into NM, w/NW flow aloft persisting over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  Fog/stratus has burned off everywhere but
the Pecos Valley and portions of the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, but
another round looks likely overnight, as persistence rules.
Satellite imagery shows some CI moving thru the ridge, and this
could mitigate development somewhat, so we`ll leave it up to
subsequent shifts to issue any advisories.

Otherwise, Saturday should be similar to today, w/fog/stratus
burning off by late morning/early afternoon as the upper ridge
passes east in response to an upper trough currently making landfall
on the west coast.  This feature is set to swing inland, tilt
negatively, reach the Four Corners by 06Z Sunday, and push through
the Panhandles Sunday afternoon.  Westerlies rounding the base of
the trough will sharpen up a weak dryline Saturday night, w/return
flow maintaining 50+ dewpoints east of the dryline.  Modest height
falls and instability along and east of the dryline will result in a
slight chance of convection Saturday night, mainly over the Wrn Low
Rolling Plains.  Forecast soundings over the upper CO Valley show a
marginal hail threat.

This activity should quickly push east of the area Sunday morning,
to be replaced by a windbag Sunday afternoon as the trough passes north.
Here models are in disagreement as to just how windy, as much will
depend on how far south the trough tracks.  Attm, the NAM tracks
farthest south, and takes the trough straight thru the Texas
Panhandle, whereas other solutions track north of there.  Should the
NAM pan out, high wind warnings/advisories will be in store for the
Guadalupes and adjacent plains.  However, since the NAM is the
outlier, we`ll not take the plunge just yet, keep winds below
warning thresholds, and revisit this in 24 hours.  Regardless,
Sunday afternoon looks to be breezy.  High RH`s should mitigate any
fire wx concerns, as cooler temps arrive w/the Pac
front.

Otherwise, temps should stay near normal into next week as flow
aloft transitions from zonal to SW in response to a major trough
forecast to dig south thru CA.  Trough will send shortwaves thru the
area beginning Wednesday, increasing rain chances as the week
progresses, w/the main trough pushing thru the area Thursday night.
Thursday night will need to be watched, as successive runs of the
ECMWF keep getting colder, hinting at a chance of frozen precip nrn
zones.  For now, we`ll persist w/-SHRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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698
FXUS64 KMAF 122045
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has edged into NM, w/NW flow aloft persisting over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  Fog/stratus has burned off everywhere but
the Pecos Valley and portions of the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, but
another round looks likely overnight, as persistence rules.
Satellite imagery shows some CI moving thru the ridge, and this
could mitigate development somewhat, so we`ll leave it up to
subsequent shifts to issue any advisories.

Otherwise, Saturday should be similar to today, w/fog/stratus
burning off by late morning/early afternoon as the upper ridge
passes east in response to an upper trough currently making landfall
on the west coast.  This feature is set to swing inland, tilt
negatively, reach the Four Corners by 06Z Sunday, and push through
the Panhandles Sunday afternoon.  Westerlies rounding the base of
the trough will sharpen up a weak dryline Saturday night, w/return
flow maintaining 50+ dewpoints east of the dryline.  Modest height
falls and instability along and east of the dryline will result in a
slight chance of convection Saturday night, mainly over the Wrn Low
Rolling Plains.  Forecast soundings over the upper CO Valley show a
marginal hail threat.

This activity should quickly push east of the area Sunday morning,
to be replaced by a windbag Sunday afternoon as the trough passes north.
Here models are in disagreement as to just how windy, as much will
depend on how far south the trough tracks.  Attm, the NAM tracks
farthest south, and takes the trough straight thru the Texas
Panhandle, whereas other solutions track north of there.  Should the
NAM pan out, high wind warnings/advisories will be in store for the
Guadalupes and adjacent plains.  However, since the NAM is the
outlier, we`ll not take the plunge just yet, keep winds below
warning thresholds, and revisit this in 24 hours.  Regardless,
Sunday afternoon looks to be breezy.  High RH`s should mitigate any
fire wx concerns, as cooler temps arrive w/the Pac
front.

Otherwise, temps should stay near normal into next week as flow
aloft transitions from zonal to SW in response to a major trough
forecast to dig south thru CA.  Trough will send shortwaves thru the
area beginning Wednesday, increasing rain chances as the week
progresses, w/the main trough pushing thru the area Thursday night.
Thursday night will need to be watched, as successive runs of the
ECMWF keep getting colder, hinting at a chance of frozen precip nrn
zones.  For now, we`ll persist w/-SHRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  65  45  60  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              53  68  54  62  /   0  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                42  67  40  66  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  53  67  54  71  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  75  48  62  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  65  34  52  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   46  67  42  59  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   37  69  34  59  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  68  51  59  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  53  69  50  61  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    49  69  46  65  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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511
FXUS64 KMAF 121813
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.UPDATE...

Have updated to allow the remainder of the Fog Advisory to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest observations have indicated that the fog has dissipated
across the area so the remainder of the Fog Advisory is being
allowed to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Low ceilings and fog should clear out of the area by 19z.  Winds
will remain fairly light out of the south with high clouds moving in
around 00z.  Low ceilings and visibilities are once again possible
after 03z with fog developing toward 12z across some areas.  Expect
the low ceilings and fog to dissipate around or just before 18z
Saturday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Similar to yesterday, persistent low level moisture is once again
resulting in another round of fog this morning. Several areas with
visibilities at or below 1/4 mile so the Dense Fog Advisory will
remain in affect for much of the CWA through 15Z although
visibilities may improve before then. Upper ridging will
persist today and tomorrow with temperatures expected to be well
above normal. Forecasting highs today to be about 5-10 degrees
warmer than yesterday, with cloud cover expected to clear somewhat.
Rain chances will remain nil today and most of tomorrow however
continued low level moisture will remain in place, resulting in a
repeat of the past several nights with patchy fog across portions of
the region.

Meanwhile, an eastward moving ua trough will enter the western ConUS
today, swing through the Rockies Saturday and enter NM Saturday
night. Still looks as though the best upper forcing in our area will
be across the northern half of the area so will keep best chances
for showers and thunderstorms confined mainly to SE NM and
northern Permian Basin Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Thunderstorm chances then shift to across eastern zones late
Sunday morning with the arrival of an associated pacific front
moving east through the region. Expect gusty west winds and
somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front. Gusts are expected
to quickly subside overnight Sunday. Portions of SE NM and the
Davis Mtns will finally see low temps near or below freezing early
Monday morning. Cooler air will continue to filter southward
Monday as a surface ridge settles into the region, holding high
temps slightly below normal through mid week. Tuesday morning
looks to be the coolest, before return flow brings low level
moisture back to the region.

The next shot for rain could be sometime mid-late week with the
potential of another westward moving Pacific ua trough. Not sure
models will remain consistent with the current timing/track/strength
of this feature so will only carry slight chance PoPs for portions
of the region Wednesday night/Thursday until confidence increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  49  69  49  /   0   0  10  40
BIG SPRING TX              68  54  70  55  /  10   0  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  42  71  42  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  70  53  71  53  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  50  74  48  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  47  65  39  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   67  44  68  44  /   0   0  10  40
MARFA TX                   69  40  69  38  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  52  71  52  /   0   0  10  30
ODESSA TX                  69  52  70  50  /   0   0  10  30
WINK TX                    71  46  74  45  /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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947
FXUS64 KMAF 121733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1127 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and fog should clear out of the area by 19z.  Winds
will remain fairly light out of the south with high clouds moving in
around 00z.  Low ceilings and visibilities are once again possible
after 03z with fog developing toward 12z across some areas.  Expect
the low ceilings and fog to dissipate around or just before 18z
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

UPDATE...

Have updated to allow part of the Fog Advisory to expire and extend
part of the advisory until 18z.

DISCUSSION...

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that the fog has
dissipated across most of the area but remains across parts of
southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos.  Due to these latest
observations, the Fog Advisory is being extended until 18z for parts
of southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos but being allowed
to expire elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Similar to yesterday, persistent low level moisture is once again
resulting in another round of fog this morning. Several areas with
visibilities at or below 1/4 mile so the Dense Fog Advisory will
remain in affect for much of the CWA through 15Z although
visibilities may improve before then. Upper ridging will
persist today and tomorrow with temperatures expected to be well
above normal. Forecasting highs today to be about 5-10 degrees
warmer than yesterday, with cloud cover expected to clear somewhat.
Rain chances will remain nil today and most of tomorrow however
continued low level moisture will remain in place, resulting in a
repeat of the past several nights with patchy fog across portions of
the region.

Meanwhile, an eastward moving ua trough will enter the western ConUS
today, swing through the Rockies Saturday and enter NM Saturday
night. Still looks as though the best upper forcing in our area will
be across the northern half of the area so will keep best chances
for showers and thunderstorms confined mainly to SE NM and
northern Permian Basin Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Thunderstorm chances then shift to across eastern zones late
Sunday morning with the arrival of an associated pacific front
moving east through the region. Expect gusty west winds and
somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front. Gusts are expected
to quickly subside overnight Sunday. Portions of SE NM and the
Davis Mtns will finally see low temps near or below freezing early
Monday morning. Cooler air will continue to filter southward
Monday as a surface ridge settles into the region, holding high
temps slightly below normal through mid week. Tuesday morning
looks to be the coolest, before return flow brings low level
moisture back to the region.

The next shot for rain could be sometime mid-late week with the
potential of another westward moving Pacific ua trough. Not sure
models will remain consistent with the current timing/track/strength
of this feature so will only carry slight chance PoPs for portions
of the region Wednesday night/Thursday until confidence increases.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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051
FXUS64 KMAF 121629
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.UPDATE...

Have updated to allow part of the Fog Advisory to expire and extend
part of the advisory until 18z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that the fog has
dissipated across most of the area but remains across parts of
southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos.  Due to these latest
observations, the Fog Advisory is being extended until 18z for parts
of southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos but being allowed
to expire elsewhere.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Similar to yesterday, persistent low level moisture is once again
resulting in another round of fog this morning. Several areas with
visibilities at or below 1/4 mile so the Dense Fog Advisory will
remain in affect for much of the CWA through 15Z although
visibilities may improve before then. Upper ridging will
persist today and tomorrow with temperatures expected to be well
above normal. Forecasting highs today to be about 5-10 degrees
warmer than yesterday, with cloud cover expected to clear somewhat.
Rain chances will remain nil today and most of tomorrow however
continued low level moisture will remain in place, resulting in a
repeat of the past several nights with patchy fog across portions of
the region.

Meanwhile, an eastward moving ua trough will enter the western ConUS
today, swing through the Rockies Saturday and enter NM Saturday
night. Still looks as though the best upper forcing in our area will
be across the northern half of the area so will keep best chances
for showers and thunderstorms confined mainly to SE NM and
northern Permian Basin Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Thunderstorm chances then shift to across eastern zones late
Sunday morning with the arrival of an associated pacific front
moving east through the region. Expect gusty west winds and
somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front. Gusts are expected
to quickly subside overnight Sunday. Portions of SE NM and the
Davis Mtns will finally see low temps near or below freezing early
Monday morning. Cooler air will continue to filter southward
Monday as a surface ridge settles into the region, holding high
temps slightly below normal through mid week. Tuesday morning
looks to be the coolest, before return flow brings low level
moisture back to the region.

The next shot for rain could be sometime mid-late week with the
potential of another westward moving Pacific ua trough. Not sure
models will remain consistent with the current timing/track/strength
of this feature so will only carry slight chance PoPs for portions
of the region Wednesday night/Thursday until confidence increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  49  69  49  /   0   0  10  40
BIG SPRING TX              68  54  70  55  /  10   0  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  42  71  42  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  70  53  71  53  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  50  74  48  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  47  65  39  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   67  44  68  44  /   0   0  10  40
MARFA TX                   69  40  69  38  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  52  71  52  /   0   0  10  30
ODESSA TX                  69  52  70  50  /   0   0  10  30
WINK TX                    71  46  74  45  /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99/99

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