Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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052
FXUS64 KMAF 191704
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. A dying thunderstorm complex
in the Permian Basin will produce abundant mid and high clouds
this afternoon. These clouds will diminish from east to west
as the afternoon progresses. Gusty east winds will become
southeast early this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph with an occasional
higher gust through early this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move southwestward into west Texas
this morning, but are expected to weaken by 19/15Z.  Will mention
TSRA at KMAF, but due to low probability will leave any mention out
of the other area terminals.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

We will finally see a break from the widespread 100`s we have had
over the last few days.

An MCS that developed over SW OK overnight is moving south-southwest
across the TX Southern High Plains. These storms are producing
very heavy rain and frequent lightning. Some locations east of
Lubbock have received a couple inches of rain already and similar
rainfall may be expected across the Western Low Rolling Plains
before long. Hi-res models show this convection continuing to
evolve and push across our area this morning. We also can`t rule
out damaging winds and maybe even some hail given high instability
and strong shear over the area. Forecast updates are likely as we
go through this morning.

The large upper ridge continues to shift into the Plains while
flattening out. This will allow for deeper easterly flow across TX
and an increase in moisture. We will see afternoon highs fall about
5 to 7 degrees beginning today with even cooler temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday. A weak inverted trough moving
underneath the ridge will cross early this week bringing more clouds
and possibly some isolated storms. Hotter temperatures arrive
midweek as the ridge reasserts itself over the area. With each
progressive run, models have shown a weaker upper high late in
the week which should keep temperatures closer to normal.
Unfortunately, any precipitation looks to remain out of our area
through at least the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  68  94 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  95  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  92  70  94 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  88  66  90 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          65  92  64  93 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          60  86  60  88 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  93  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           71  95  70  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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