Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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768
FXUS64 KMAF 120545
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with extensive high clouds over the area through most of the
TAF period.  A surface trough extending down from the Panhandle
will tighten up this afternoon with SW wind becoming gusty.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Low level mstr has crept into the e-s CWFA today, but still its
extremely dry across the w. There`s still an extensive covering of
high clouds, but seems to be a little thinner than yesterday with
highs mostly in the U80s and L90s today. Low level mstr will push
wwd overnight some, but this will be short-lived pushing into ern
edge of CWFA Sat PM...except in the far s where mstr will hold in
place. 20-25kts 85h-7h winds Sat PM suggest gusty afternoon
conditions across the GDP Mtns/SE NM. Still unseasonably warm Sat,
high in the 90s with warm/dry sw surface winds. There is a brief
window that precip could form Sun AM across PB (emphasis on brief)
ahead of a shrtwv trof. Sun PM will be warm again, but especially
windy. A shrtwv trof passing to the n with 25-30kt 85h winds and
MSLP gradient of 4mb/120 suggesting 20-30G40mph across the plains.
High winds will be possible in the favored areas of GDP Mtns
Sat/Sun. After shrtwv trof passes a strong cold front will move
into the plains Sun night/early Mon AM. MSLP gradient around
4mb/50nm and NAM12 isallobaric high of 12mb/3hrs suggest it will
be very windy, at least brief advisory level winds will be possible.
and high winds will possible thru GDP Pass. Noting that NAM12 has
overdone the isallobaric high recently. There will be a noticeable
change in temps Mon-Tue with high Mon in the 50s, possibly 40s far
n-ne, and low in the 30s Tue AM. A late season freeze will even be
possible across the NW CWFA and Marfa Plateau. Thereafter there will
be a gradual warming trend with temps returning to well above
normal and dry thru the remainder of the work weak.

FIRE WEATHER...
The area continues to be hit hard by low RHs, especially across
the w where even max RH/s aren`t getting above 15-17 pct (Dog
Canyon, Queen, Ft Davis). Recovery has been better in the e, but
desiccating air surges out ewd in the afternoon. This will generally
be the pattern thru Sunday, although the morning RH/s will be
higher than of late, even in the w. Model surface winds/mixing
potential is confirmed in MOS guidance across the w for Sat and we
will upgrade the watch to a warning. Sunday looks to be windier
over a much larger area when 85h and 7h winds of 25-30kts and
30-45kts, respectively, will come out across the area in assocn
with a shrtwv trof passing to the n. Referenced 85-7h winds will
be strongest early and be weaker in the far w. According to the
thermal ridge position and 85h-7h wind speed max the best set-up
will be across the central and e PB. For now we will opt to issue
a watch for all areas. Depending on more certainty with timing as
Sunday draws nearer some of the wrn areas, like SE NM, may be
dropped?

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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