Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231127

627 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

See aviation discussion below.


Convection has been slow to materialize this AM, however SHRA/TSRA
are still expected to develop to the sw this morning and spread
newd. CNM/HOB will mostly be on the periphery and we have tended
to down play TSRA there. Some MVFR BR is expected this morning
too. TSRA are expected to stretch from near or just e of
MAF this PM however as jet moves closer redevelopment of TSRA are
expected farther w and have reflected that in TEMPO TSRA at INK/PEQ
after 22Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/


A line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning is expected to continue
to move northeast through the early morning hours, and unlike storms
further north in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle,
rainfall amounts with these storms remain fairly light. Thus,
flooding concerns early this morning remain low, though that will
change by this later this morning/early this afternoon as widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Big Bend
area north-northeastward across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.
The slow moving upper low/trough that has been responsible for the
unsettled weather pattern lately will continue its eastward
progression today, with accompanying height falls overspreading the
area through tonight. Flow over the region will become increasingly
meridional today in response to the advancing trough and developing
ridge downstream over the eastern CONUS, and ample lift will be
further supported by a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough,
with much of the region beneath the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak. At 500mb, impulses in the southwest flow will
serve to drive continued storm development through the day today,
with storms first expected to develop over higher terrain to the
south this morning and expand in coverage northeast across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin by early afternoon.  Continued southerly
surface flow has maintained incredibly moist lower levels, with
precipitable water values 2 standard deviations above normal.
Thus, storms that develop today are expected to be efficient
rainfall producers, and given anticipated storm motion, cell
training could result in rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 3 inches possible across the Lower
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin through this evening, where a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon,
particularly across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
where diurnal destabilization is expected to result in SBCAPE of
1200-2000J/kg, and 0-6km shear approaches 30-45kt. The primary
threats with storms that develop this afternoon will be large hail
and damaging wind, as well as heavy rainfall.  Given the amount of
shear, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe
threat over eastern portions of the area today should begin to
decrease tonight as the environment is worked over by heavy
rainfall, with the threats of both severe weather and heavy rain
shifting eastward toward central Texas overnight.

By Sunday morning, there may be some lingering precipitation across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, though a lull is expected for most
of the day as the trough axis finally shifts east of the area and
surface flow becomes southwesterly, allowing for drier and warmer
conditions in its wake. Temperatures Sunday will rebound nicely,
into the low to middle 80s across southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin, with upper 80s and 90s possible across the south.
Temperatures return close to normal by Monday/Memorial Day, though a
shortwave rounding the back side of the departing trough could be
enough to result in some thunderstorms across the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos during the afternoon/evening on Memorial Day. A
reprieve from precipitation is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, in
response to weak ridging over the area, with temperatures expected
to be close to normal. By Wednesday night, yet another western CONUS
trough will result in a return to southwesterly flow aloft, and
thus, a return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing
precipitation chances for the end of next week.





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