Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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271
FXUS64 KMAF 231934
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tornado Watch #199 until 24/03Z is included.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
roughly along and east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  Large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
will be possible with these storms, as will a tornado or two.

An upper trough will dig over the western ConUS today, deepen to
encompass most of the West Coast by Wednesday, then move slowly
eastward and over the region Thursday into Friday.  A dryline will
take up semi permanent residence over the forecast area through the
week under the resultant southwest flow aloft over the region,
mixing eastward during the day and retreating westward overnight.
Expect the dryline to set up in a similar location to yesterday with
convection initiating during max heating over the Stockton Plateau
in an area of enhanced low level convergence.  Subsequent storms are
also expected to form further northward into the evening.  It does
not appear that areal thunderstorm coverage will be extensive, due
in part to no discernible mid level shortwave trough in Water Vapor
Imagery, but whatever storms develop will likely become severe.
This will be due to strong heating aiding SBCape rising to 3000 to
4000 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/Km and the exit
region of a 110kt h25 jet nosing into the region.  0 to 6 Km Bulk
Shear Vectors will also be on the order of 30 to 40kt which portends
organized convection.  Storms will last into the evening as a h85
low level jet increase over the Permian Basin, but should be winding
down by 24/03Z, or moving east of the forecast area on the low level
jet.  There is an outside chance convection could redevelop late
tonight on the dryline so will leave at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight.  Even though storms would be elevated,
anything that develops could be strong to severe with heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding.

Tuesday through Thursday, the dryline will likely push to the
eastern fringe of the forecast area each day so will continue to
carry a slight chance of thunderstorms these areas.  Slight
adjustments will likely have to be made as we get closer to each of
those time frames, but severe storms could be possible each
afternoon/evening.  On Friday the base of the upper trough will
translate eastward with most thunderstorms perhaps east of the area
depending on how early the trough moves overhead.  There will not be
much of a respite from this active pattern since another upper
trough is progged to take shape over the western ConUS this weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal areawide through the week.  Dry
and hot conditions will prevail to the west of the dryline with
critical fire weather conditions affecting the western half of the
forecast area, but particularly the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion
below for further details.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
this evening across the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag Warning
is in effect.  Afternoon RH values are expected to bottom out around
6 to 10 percent, with southwesterly 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph
with some higher gusts, especially across the higher elevations and
ridgetops. With gusty winds developing at lower elevations, some
brief localized critical fire weather conditions are possible across
the southeast New Mexico Plains through early this evening. A brief
reprieve is expected tonight with conditions improving with the loss
of daytime heating and slightly weaker winds, however given the
dryline will remain to the east, poor nocturnal recovery is
anticipated.

On Tuesday, the dryline will push further to the east across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, with increasing dry air
to the west. The stronger winds that had been previously been
confined mainly to the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains
will spread eastward across the southeast New Mexico Plains during
the afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather conditions as
minimum RH values fall to 5 to 8 percent. The Fire Weather Watch
that was in effect for this area has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.  Similar
conditions may develop again on Wednesday, thus a future Fire
Weather Watch may be needed for the Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday
evening time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  93  71  92 /  30  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       59  96  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         74  96  75  95 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  94  66  94 /  20  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  87  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  92  61  93 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          50  85  53  87 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         73  95  70  97 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           69  98  63  98 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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