Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

FXUS64 KMAF 022347

547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

See aviation discussion below.


Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFR vsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.






Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:

Check us out on the internet at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.