Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015


See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.



Area radars show a line of convection extending from the South
Plains to the Diablo Plateau, courtesy of an upper trough moving
thru Texas. This activity is slowly diminishing w/cooling, and the
LLJ is much weaker tonight, so only terminal affected should be
KHOB. A few low clouds could develop near KMAF near sunrise, but
buffer soundings keep them VFR. Otherwise, Saturday looks similar
to Friday, w/cu bases 5-8 kft agl and more convection.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 858 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

Increasing chance of thunderstorms over the Permian Basin,
particularly northwestern parts.

By mid-evening, a complex of thunderstorms was pushing out of
southeast New Mexico and the southern plains into the northern
Permian Basin. Some of these storms have produced damaging wind
gusts. Moderate instability and shear exist in advance of this
system as it pushes southeast ahead of a weak shortwave. Aided by
mid-evening low level jet, storms should be sustained through late
evening and possibly beyond midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.


Will carry VFR conditions at all area terminals, for the most part.
Thunderstorms will be possible overnight, but probabilities are not
very high for any given location.  For now, will include TSRA at
KFST, and update accordingly at the rest of the terminals.  Gusty
winds of 30 to 40kt will be possible with any storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

Current satellite shows cumulus forming in the Davis Mountains but
the radar shows there is little vertical development at this time.
Continued surface heating will cause isolated to widely scattered
TS to form later this afternoon and evening with perhaps some
isolated storms developing along a weak surface trough in
southeastern New Mexico. Models are showing a convective complex
rolling south out of the panhandle and south plains tonight which
may affect the northern Permian Basin before dissipating,
therefore have the highest PoPs tonight from the Davis Mountains
north into southeast New Mexico and east towards Snyder with lower
Pops to the south and east.

An upper ridge will begin to reassert itself tomorrow with highs
near 100 for most locations. Fortunately we are beginning to get
into that time of year when amplifying ridges to our west dislodge
cooler air from the north and send a cold front our way and that
will happen Sunday into Monday with cooler temperatures expected
as well as an increase in rain chances, especially along the
frontal boundary. Then, in a manner often seen during the past
month, the upper ridge will drift slight east ending rain chances
by the middle of next week and sending highs back above normal for
the latter half of the forecast period.






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