Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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043
FXUS64 KMAF 192024
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Dry and mild conditions will prevail across the forecast area this
afternoon, and again Tuesday, for the most part, under the influence
of west to northwest flow aloft.  Do not think we will eclipse any
records, but it will be pretty nice anyways.  However, it is still
winter and a shortwave trough traversing the northern U.S. Plains
today, and the Midwest tonight, will send a cold front south into
the region Tuesday afternoon in it`s wake.  Temperatures will be
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler north of Interstate 20, but should be
pretty similar to today further south.  The front should clear the
Rio Grande River late Tuesday night.

The forecast then takes a decidedly wetter turn thereafter as an
upper trough deepens over the Great Basin Tuesday and heads toward
Texas via the Four Corners region Wednesday.  It looks like low
level upslope flow will combine with a shortwave trough ejecting
ahead of the mentioned ua trough, the RRQ of a 130+kt h25 jet and
PWats rising to around 0.75 inch to produce showers over portions of
the area Wednesday afternoon.  Some models are indicating
destabilization above the cool airmass, so a few thunderstorms are
not out of the question, especially since h7-h5 lapse rates top out
near 7 C/Km.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms become more
widespread into Wednesday night and spread eastward.  The column
cools Wednesday night with precipitation changing to snow, and
perhaps some sleet, in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and northern Permian Basin.  Since
surface temperatures will likely still be above freezing, save in
the higher elevations of the mountains, snow accumulations will
likely be an inch or less.  The best moisture and lift will move
east of the mountains through late Wednesday night, which should
limit snowfall amounts in the higher elevations in the mountains to
an inch or two at best.  Will highlight the above in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for now, but later shifts will have to monitor these
time frames for a deeper ua trough, and whether there is a greater
southward thrust of cold air at the surface.  The good thing about
all of this is we will have a pretty good shot at needed rain with
some locations possibly receiving a half inch or more of rainfall.

It will be pretty chilly Thursday, and with the ua tough still yet
to pass overhead, light mixed precipitation will be possible.  It
looks like surface temperatures will mainly be above freezing, so
light rain/snow does not appear to present many difficulties.  A
warming trend will set in Friday, but the degree of the warmup
thereafter will depend on how far east an ua ridge over the west
coast migrates eastward.  Will stick to a more middle of the road
solution for now which portends no precipitation chances through the
rest of the extended, and temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  65  35  48  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              38  68  35  50  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                36  66  35  46  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  43  78  43  53  /   0   0   0  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  72  37  48  /   0   0   0  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  62  33  43  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   34  60  34  45  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   31  70  31  52  /   0   0   0  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  69  35  49  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  38  67  35  49  /   0   0   0  30
WINK TX                    36  71  36  49  /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/67

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