Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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154
FXUS64 KMAF 281121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies today. Light southerly wind
this morning will become more westerly and increase in speed by
midday as leeside trough deepens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today as upper ridging to the west,
along with the 850mb thermal ridge, inch eastward throughout the
day. Generally have westerly winds at the surface and sunny skies
which will aide in afternoon temperatures warming to the upper 80s
and low 90s. Could see a short period of near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and will handle this with a Fire Danger Statement for
this area. Much of the same can be expected Sunday regardless of a
slow wind shift to the N throughout the day. MOS Guidance has
proved to be a little too warm lately so will undercut temps
slightly at most places for today and tomorrow. This lovely
stretch of warm temps will briefly come to an end with the arrival
of a cold front Sunday evening. Near normal temperatures (70s) can
be expected Monday and Tuesday.

Models continue to advertise an upper trough approaching the region
from the west early next week. Thunderstorm chances look to begin
late Monday night and continue on into Tuesday as upper forcing for
ascent moves across the region. Best chances will generally be
confined to the eastern half of the CWA, where best low level
moisture will reside. Model soundings continue to indicate somewhat
dry air in the mid-levels, which could definitely be a limiting
factor in thunderstorm development so kept PoPs to chance and slight
chance.

Beyond Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return
under zonal flow aloft. Another cold front will move through late in
the week and we could start next weekend with below normal temps and
potential rain chances. Will keep PoPs below mention for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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