Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015


Please see the 22/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through
23/18Z. A couple of flies in the ointment as there exists a
slight chance (maybe one in four) of TSRA affecting KFST between
22Z and 02Z, KPEQ and KINK from 23Z to 03Z, and KCNM and KHOB from
00Z to 03Z. KMAF looks to miss out this time. With large surface
T/Td spreads and high cloud bases, gusty winds and frequent
lightning INVOF any TSRA is likely. However, right now our
confidence is sufficiently low to include TSRA in these TAFs until
the convective initiation and trends are better defined.

Toward daybreak Sunday, a decent cold front looks to enter
southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin of west
Texas. How far south will the boundary go...and with it a wind
shift to the north or northeast and an uptick in
another question. Feel confident it will pass through KCNM, KHOB,
KINK, and KPEQ to some degree. However the front might stall north
of KMAF and not get to KFST.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/


See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


Area radars show earlier convection has all but died out, w/only a
few -shra left in the area. A few low clouds could develop near
KMAF near sunrise, but buffer soundings keep them VFR. Otherwise,
today looks similar to Friday, w/cu bases 4.5-9 kft agl and more
convection possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/


Currently, a few remaining showers are moving across the area.
Temperatures are staying on the warm side this morning with mostly
cloudy skies overhead. Expect high temperatures today to be in the
upper 90s and triple digits for most of the area. There is an
upper trough over the Northern Plains which is helping to suppress
the upper ridge over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across mainly the higher
terrain and surrounding plains. Good CAPE values will be across
the area and an area of enhanced omega will be over the higher
terrain, so some of the storms that develop this afternoon and
evening could be strong.

As the upper trough over the Northern Plains moves eastward, it
will send a cold front southward towards the CWA on Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across the higher
terrain, and storm chances will increase across southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin as the front approaches. Temperatures
on Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today. The
front does not appear to be very strong but it will result in
temperatures cooling to around normal values on Monday. Rain
chances will taper off Monday and Monday night as the upper ridge
once again begins to build over the region. Temperatures will warm
up after Monday into the mid to upper 90s across the Permian
Basin. Conditions will be mostly dry mid to late next week with
the upper ridge building over the western half of the conus.







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