Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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877
FXUS64 KMAF 291136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 12KT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN MAINLY AFTER
30/00Z, WHICH COULD AFFECT KCNM, KHOB, KINK, AND KMAF. HOWEVER,
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING/COVERAGE. HOWEVER, IF STORMS DEVELOP,
GUSTY WIND AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL DEFER TO
LATER SHIFTS FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. DESPITE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
85H TEMPS WILL INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO AND A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
LOWER SURFACE DWPNT AIR WILL MATERIALIZE (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) FROM
FAR W TX INTO WRN/CNTRL PB. AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL
ACROSS THE PB - M90S. PRIOR TO 00Z CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT NON-ZERO ACROSS THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS
MTNS SWD. MEANWHILE TO THE N-NW A CLUSTER OF TSTMS/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS WILL BE TRACKING SWD ARRIVING IN N-NW CWFA AROUND 00Z. 3H JET
MAX IS STILL A PLAYER, BUT 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IT TO BE WEAKER,
WITH ONLY A HINT OF SLY LLJ, AND SAID DRIER SURFACE AIR, THUS THE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. TTU WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC
WITH TSTMS AND MOVES THEM THRU BETWEEN 00Z IN THE N TO 04Z IN THE
W/S PB, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AFTER
06Z. IN PART BASED ON DRIER AIR MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OUTFLOW WINDS OF WHICH THE TTU WRF PICKED UP ON
ACROSS WRN PB - 30KTS. MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY BUT DOES LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER. INCREASED SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE PB, BUT NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE W. LOW ORDER POPS ONLY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY FOR THE W/SW
AND N WITH A WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD E-SE CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT THE AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN N WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER ELY MID LEVEL
WIND VICE A NE MID LEVEL WIND.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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